Scott popularity slides, Gray ahead for LT, Janoo leads Gov for Dems, Balint strong, direction of state down, many "Don't Knows"
Green Mountain State Poll Vermont Governor Phil Scott's job approval has fallen to its lowest point since at least April 2022, but much of this decline is due to falling approval among his fellow Republicans. Scott is seeking a sixth term as governor and holds early leads over prospective Democratic challengers Amanda Janoo and Aly Richards, who are largely unknown to likely Democratic primary voters. Former Lieutenant Governor Molly Gray leads the Democratic field to take on incumbent Republican John Rodgers and Gray leads Rodgers in a prospective general election matchup. Gerald Malloy leads fellow Republican Mark Coester in the race to challenge incumbent Democratic Congresswoman Becca Balint in Vermont's congressional district, but both Malloy and Coester trail Balint in general election matchups.
2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Election
In late May, Vermont Governor Phil Scott announced his decision to seek a sixth term in office in November. Likely Democratic primary voters in Vermont are largely unsure who they will nominate to face him. If the primary were held today, 20% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would vote for Amanda Janoo, 12% would vote for Aly Richards, 3% would vote for another candidate, and 64% are undecided. Socialists show a slight preference for Janoo while moderates show a slight preference for Richards, but majorities of both groups along with progressives and moderates remain undecided.
Source: Green Mountain State Poll, a States of Opinion Project, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
Both candidates are largely unknown to likely Democratic primary voters: 17% have a favorable opinion of Janoo, 1% have an unfavorable opinion, 11% are neutral, and 71% don’t know enough about her to say. Janoo's net favorability rating (the percentage who have a favorable rating minus those who are unfavorable) among DEM primary voters is +16. Similarly, 15% have a favorable opinion of Richards, 2% have an unfavorable opinion, 14% are neutral, and 69% don’t know enough about her to say, yielding a net favorability rating of +13.
n a general election matchup between Scott and Janoo, 42% of likely general election voters say they would vote for Scott if the general election were held today, 27% would vote for Janoo, 3% would vote for Dean Roy, 1% would vote for June Goodband, 1% would vote for another candidate, and 26% are undecided. Seven in ten Republicans (70%) would vote for Scott, a plurality of Democrats (42%) would vote for Janoo, and Independents are divided, with 29% supporting Scott and 28% supporting Janoo.
If Richards wins the nomination, 41% of likely general election voters say they would vote for Scott, 25% would vote for Richards, 6% would vote for Goodband, 1% would vote for Roy, 1% would vote for another candidate, and 26% are undecided. Seven in ten Republicans (70%) would vote for Scott, a plurality of Democrats (38%) would vote for Richards, and Independents are divided, with 28% supporting Richards and 27% supporting Scott.
Fifty-one percent of Vermonters approve of Scott's handling of his job as governor, 43% disapprove, and 6% neither approve nor disapprove or are unsure. Scott's net approval rating remains positive (+8), but has fallen to the lowest level since the question was first asked in April 2022. However, much of this decline is due to a fall in approval among Scott's fellow Republicans, only 57% of whom approve of Scott's performance as governor, down from 76% in January. Meanwhile, half of Vermont Democrats (51%) and 42% of Independents approve of Scott's handling of his job.
2026 Vermont Lieutenant Governor Election In the race for lieutenant governor of Vermont, 39% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would vote for former Lieutenant Governor Molly Gray if the primary were held today, 11% would vote for 2024 gubernatorial nominee Esther Charlesn, 7% would vote former congressional aide Ryan McLaren, 1% would vote for another candidate, and 42% are undecided. A majority of moderates (57%) and half of liberals (50%) support Gray, while 34% of socialists support Gray, 26% support Charlestin, and 13% support McLaren. A majority of progressives (55%) are undecided.
Thirty-seven percent of likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of Gray, 8% have an unfavorable opinion, 21% are neutral, and 34% don’t know enough about her to say. Gray's net favorability rating among DEM primary voters is +29. Fifteen percent have a favorable opinion of Charlestin, 4% have an unfavorable opinion, 11% are neutral, and 70% don’t know enough about her to say, yielding a net favorability rating of +12. Only 7% have a favorable opinion of McLaren, 1% have an unfavorable opinion, 11% are neutral, and 82% don’t know enough about him to say, yielding a net favorability rating of +6.
In a general election matchup between Gray and Republican incumbent Lieutenant Governor John Rodgers, 45% say they would vote for Gray, 29% would vote for Rodgers, 1% would vote for another candidate, and 26% are undecided. Most Republicans (83%) would vote for Rodgers, two-thirds of Democrats (66%) would vote for Gray, and nearly half of Independents (47%) are undecided.
A general election matchup between Charlestin and Rodgers would be far closer: 35% say they would vote for Charlestin in such a matchup, 30% would vote for Rodgers, 2% would vote for another candidate, and 33% are undecided. Most Republicans (87%) would vote for Rodgers, 53% of Democrats would vote for Charlestin, and half of Independents (49%) are undecided.
A general election matchup between McLaren and Rodgers would also be close: 32% say they would vote for McLaren in such a matchup, 30% would vote for Rodgers, 1% would vote for another candidate, and 37% are undecided. Most Republicans (83%) would vote for Rodgers, 53% of Democrats would vote for McLaren, and most Independents (72%) are undecided.
Incumbent Democratic U.S. Congresswoman Becca Balint is running for re-election in Vermont's at-large district. On the Republican side, 48% of likely primary voters would vote for Gerald Malloy as the Republican nominee if the primary were held today, 19% would vote for Mark Coester, 1% would vote for another candidate, and 32% are undecided. Malloy enjoys support from a majority of conservative (54%) likely Republican primary voters, while a majority of moderates (57%) are undecided.
Forty-three percent of likely Republican primary voters have a favorable opinion of Malloy, 11% have an unfavorable opinion, 15% are neutral, and 32% don’t know enough about him to say. Malloy's net favorability rating among GOP primary voters is +32. Twenty-four percent have a favorable opinion of Coester, 9% have an unfavorable opinion, 10% are neutral, and 58% don’t know enough about him to say, yielding a net favorability rating of +15.
In a general election matchup between Malloy and Balint, 57% say they would vote for Balint, 26% would vote for Malloy, 1% would vote for Independent Adam Orz, less than 1% would vote for another candidate, and 16% are undecided. Most Democrats (85%) and a majority of Independents (61%) would vote for Balint, while 81% of Republicans would vote for Malloy.
In a general election matchup between Coester and Balint, 57% say they would vote for Balint, 26% would vote for Coester, 1% would vote for Independent Adam Orz, less than 1% would vote for another candidate, and 15% are undecided. Most Democrats (85%) and a majority of Independents (63%) would vote for Balint, while 83% of Republicans would vote for Coester.
Direction of the State
Thirty-three percent of Vermonters residents believe Vermont is headed in the right direction, 49% believe the state is on the wrong track, and 18% are unsure.
Green Mountain State Poll Methodology
These findings are based on the latest Green Mountain State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Green Mountain State Panel members were sent an invitation to complete the survey and 831 completed the survey online, yielding a response rate of 41%. In addition, 150 Vermont residents completed the survey after receiving an invention via text message to complete the survey. Overall, 981 Vermont residents completed the survey online between June 18 and June 23. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.1 percent.
Included in the sample were 887 likely general election voters (margin of sampling error +/- 3.3 percent). Also included in the sample were 511 likely 2026 Democratic state primary voters (MOE +/- 4.3 percent), and 237 likely Republican state primary voters (MOE +/ 6.4 percent). In addition to potential sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling error including question order effects, question wording effects, and non-response. These MSE's have not been adjusted for design effect. The design effect for the survey is 2.1%.
The Green Mountain State Panel is a probability-based web panel of Vermont residents. Approximately 2,500 Vermont adults have been recruited from phone, text-to-web, or mail-to-web surveys sent to randomly selected phone numbers or addresses. Panelists are then asked to participate in online surveys sponsored by the UNH Survey Center.
Data were weighted by respondent sex, age, education, and region of the state to targets from the most recent American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau and to 2024 election results in Vermont. Surveys were taken in English, all respondent data included passes Qualtrics data quality checks, and single-use survey links were used to prevent multiple submissions by respondents.
The number of respondents in each demographic below may not equal the number reported in cross-tabulation tables as some respondents choose not to answer some questions. Due to rounding, percentages may not sum to 100%. All coding of open-ended responses is conducted using AI coding software. For more information about the methodology used in this Green Mountain State Poll, contact Dr. Andrew Smith at (603) 862-2226 or by email at [email protected]
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