by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Vermont weekly unemployment claims for the week ending May 17, 2025, fell to under 300, which is the lowest number this year. There had been the usual end-of-ski-season spike in April. New claims this week were 285, down 112 claims from the week before and are 4 more than last year at this time. The end of the winter tourism season tends to increase claims, just as they do after holidays. Claims, which are lowest in the summer, were 181 at the end of September 2024.
In Vermont for the weekly report, the Service industry accounted for the most claims last week with 62%, unchanged from the previous week. Construction was 6%, up 2 points, as that industry ramps up. Manufacturing accounted for 16% of claims, down 7 points.
For the week, Vermont total unemployment insurance claims were 2,977 (down 259 for the week and up 474 from this time last year).
The Vermont Unemployment Trust Fund is well capitalized. As of the most recent data, there was $328.6 million in the Trust Fund, down about $1 million from the previous week (as claims are paid out on one side, employers are contributing to the fund on the other). The pre-pandemic Trust Fund balance on March 1, 2020, was $506.2 million.
In the week ending May 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,500, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 230,500.
Meanwhile, total US Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 177,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent. Employment continued to trend up in health care, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined.
Compensation costs increased 0.9 percent for civilian workers, seasonally adjusted, from December 2024 to March 2025. Over the year, total compensation rose 3.6 percent, wages and salaries rose 3.5 percent, and benefit costs rose 3.8 percent.
In April 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose by 2.3%, and the index for all items less food and energy increased by 2.8%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The index of consumer sentiment dropped to 50.8, down from 52.2 in April and hitting its second-lowest reading on record, but as CNBC reports, the majority of the survey was completed before the U.S. and China announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs between the two countries.
Concerns over the budget Congress is considering, which likely would increase the national debt, resulted in the stock market having a rocky week after two good ones. The bond market also showed weakness. The president also on Thursday threatened higher tariffs on the EU and Apple, which led to further erosion of the major indices.
The S&P, which most closely tracks the overall economy, was down 1.4% before the markets opened on Friday to about 5,775 (peaked 6,144 in February 2025). The DOW, which peaked at over 45,000 in December, was down 1.3% to about 41,380, while the volatile NASDAQ, which also peaked at over 22,408 in December, is down 1.8% to about 20,800.
April Unemployment Rate Up One-Tenth
The Vermont Department of Labor reported that the seasonally adjusted statewide unemployment rate for April was 2.7 percent. This reflects an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from the prior month’s revised estimate. The Labor Force and the number of Employed both fell, while the number of Unemployed increased slightly. The civilian labor force participation rate was 65.1 percent in April, a decrease of two-tenths of one percentage point from the prior month’s revised estimate.
Vermont now is tied for the third lowest jobless rate in the US, after being second lowest for many months. Vermont is tied with Montana and is below South (1.8%) and North Dakota (2.6%). Nevada continues to have the highest rate (5.6%). The comparable United States rate in April was 4.2 percent, no change from the revised March estimate.
Michael Harrington, Vermont Labor Commissioner, said: “The start of 2025 has shown downward pressure on Vermont’s labor force. This is likely driven by the number of mature workers who are retiring, leaving great career opportunities for job seekers and young Vermonters entering the workforce. As the school year ends, it is a great time to engage youth in these conversations, and the Vermont’s Most Promising Jobs brochure is a great starting point: https://www.vtlmi.info/pathways.pdf
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"Additionally, the Department of Labor’s Job Centers provide support services, mentoring, and paid on-the-job training opportunities for youth to highlight these pathways. Learn more about the Vermont Youth Employment Program by visiting: https://labor.vermont.gov/VYEP
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Harrington announced earlier this month that he is stepping down as commissioner in July.
The seasonally adjusted Vermont data for March show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 927 from the prior month’s revised estimate (see Table 1). The number of employed persons decreased by 1,051 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 124. The change to the number of employed was statistically significant in the seasonally adjusted series.
The March unemployment rates for Vermont’s 14 counties ranged from 2.1 percent in Chittenden County to 5.7 percent in Orleans County (note: county unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted – see Table 2). For comparison, the March unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 2.8 percent, a decrease of two-tenths of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted February level and an increase of seven-tenths of one percentage point from a year ago.
The seasonally adjusted data for March reported an increase of 900 jobs from the revised February data. There was an increase of 100 jobs between the preliminary and the revised February estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The seasonally adjusted over-the-month changes in March varied at the industry level. The industry with a notable increase was Administrative & Waste Services (+500 jobs or +3.7%). The industry with a notable decrease was Other Services (-200 jobs or -1.9%).
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