by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine
Vermont weekly unemployment claims for the week ending March 15, 2025, remained under 400 after a spike carried them over 600 late last month. New claims were 397, up 2 claims from the week before and are 19 more from last year. Claims, which tend to be lowest in the summer, were 181 at the end of September 2024.
In Vermont for the weekly report, the Service industry accounted for the most claims last week with 61%, up 17 points. Construction was at 16%, down 6 points. Manufacturing accounted for 8% of claims, down 5 points.
For the week, Vermont total unemployment insurance claims were 4,197 for the week (down 145 for the week and up 385 from this time last year).
Meanwhile the Vermont Unemployment Trust Fund is well capitalized. As of the most recent data, there was $296.7 million in the Trust Fund, down about $1.9 million (as claims are paid out on one side, employers are contributing to the fund on the other). The pre-pandemic Trust Fund balance on March 1, 2020, was $506.2 million.
CNBC reported on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged as President Donald Trump’s tariff policies weigh on economic growth. CNBC said that although inflation receded last month, an escalating trade war threatens to hike prices on consumer goods going forward. With all that, the Fed is taking a wait and see attitude. The major stock indices took another rollercoaster ride with the Fed news seeming to stabilize markets by the end of the day Friday. The DJIA saw a slight gain while the S&P and NASDAQ essentially broke even for the week.
For the nation, nonfarm payrolls increased by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 for February, better than the downwardly revised 125,000 in January but less than the 170,000 consensus forecast.
In the week ending March 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted US initial claims was 223,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 220,000 to 221,000. The 4-week moving average was 227,000, an increase of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 226,000 to 226,250.
Unemployment Rate Rises
Meanwhile, the Vermont Department of Labor announced March 17, 2025, that the seasonally adjusted statewide unemployment rate for January was 2.6 percent. This reflects an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from the prior month’s revised estimate. The civilian labor force participation rate was 65.5 percent in January, no change from the prior month’s revised estimate.
While the Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment all increased slightly, none of the changes were statistically significant. Vermont continues to have the second lowest rate in the nation, tied with North Dakota. South Dakota is lowest at 1.9 percent; Nevada is highest at 5.8 percent.
The comparable United States rate in January was 4.0 percent, a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised December estimate.
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