Minimum wage increase starting January 2026 to $14.42
Vermont DOL announces unemployment insurance Taxable Wage Base for 2026
by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Vermont weekly unemployment claims continue to surge, just as the national labor scene weakens. For the week ending November 29, 2025, new claims reached 600 and have steadily increased since mid-September. New claims were up 116 claims from the week before and up 1 from last year at this time. Claims were 186 in September. Claims, which tend to be lowest in the summer, were 181 at the end of September 2024. Claims tend to rise and fall around the holidays with temporary work hires and layoffs.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reservice Bank will meet next week. The Fed is expected to lower rates as employment data indicates weakness and as inflation fell one-tenth to 2.8%. While the inflation mark is higher than the 2.0% Fed target, Fed governors appear to weigh the economic downside threat greater than the inflation level (the Fed raised rates seven times in 2022 from 0.25% to 4.5% to combat spiking inflation while the underlying economy remained strong; the Fed could decide that the reverse is the case now and cut rates). See below.
In Vermont for the weekly labor UI claims report, manufacturing accounted for 8% of the total, down 3 points from the previous week. Manufacturing overall has become a smaller part of the Vermont economy over the last 25 years and that trend appears to be continuing. The Service industry, which typically accounts for the most claims, last week reported 47% from the previous week, up 2 points. Construction was 18%, down 10 points.
For the week, Vermont total unemployment insurance claims were 2,972 (down 118 for the week and up 407 from this time last year).
The Vermont Unemployment Trust Fund is well capitalized. As of the most recent data, there was $327.7 million in the Trust Fund, down nearly $1 million from the previous week (as claims are paid out on one side, employers are contributing to the fund on the other). The pre-pandemic Trust Fund balance on March 1, 2020, was $506.2 million.
The US DOL has resumed collecting labor information following the end of the government shutdown. The Vermont unemployment rate has not been released since August (2.5% Vermont; 4.3% US).
Markets
The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ finished the week on a winning streak with modest gains, based on Fed cut confidence. The S&P, which flirted with a record high, edged up 13.28 to 6,870.40, the Dow was up 104.05 to 47,954.99 and NASDAQ was up 72.992 points to 23,578.128.
Investors focused on a report from job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showing announced job cuts in November from U.S. employers moved further ahead of 1 million for the year as corporate restructuring, artificial intelligence and tariffs helped pare job rolls. On Wednesday, numbers from ADP revealed a surprising slump in private payrolls, "The US lost an average of 4k private-sector jobs per month over the last 3 months (ADP data), the first 3-month decline since the 2020 recession.”
Mounting signs that the labor market is softening has led Wall Street to be convinced the Fed will cut rates a quarter percentage point at its December 10 meeting, the last of the year. Markets are pricing in an 89% chance of a cut next Wednesday, far higher than just a couple weeks ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
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