by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Weekly unemployment claims fell for the second week after a steep increase in late June. For the week ending July 6, 2024, new claims were 295, or back their usual summer lows. The Vermont Department of Labor confirmed to VermontBiz that several manufacturers experienced temporary layoffs and reduced hours in June; they didn't not say who those employers were. The Service industry accounts for the most claims this week with 48%, which is typical. For the week of June 22, Manufacturing accounted for an unusual 37% of claims. It is now back to 29%, which is where it was a year ago.
See tables below.
For the week, claims were down 120 for the week but 44 more than this time last year. Meanwhile, the state unemployment rate remains near historic low levels as employment and the labor force have increased (2.1 percent in May 2024).
Vermont has the third lowest rate in the nation, behind North and South (2.0%) Dakota. California (5.2%) has the highest rate.
The comparable United States rate in May was 4.0 percent, an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised April estimate.
The Vermont civilian labor force participation rate was 65.6 percent in May, an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from the prior month’s revised estimate.
For new and continuing UI claims, there were a total of 2,675 claims, down 397 from the week before and 49 more than last year.
Workers affected by July 2024 flood should apply for unemployment benefits
Nationally, for the week ending July 6, the US Department of Labor's advanced figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 238,000 to 239,000. The 4-week moving average was 233,500, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 238,500 to 238,750.
Reuters reports that declining inflation indicate that the economy is slowing for the second straight quarter, which suggests that the Fed will likely cut interest rates as early as September and perhaps again in December.
The Vermont Unemployment Trust Fund is well capitalized. As of last week, there was $305.2 million in the Trust Fund, up $1 million for the week (as claims are paid out on one side, employers are contributing to the fund on the other). The pre-pandemic Trust Fund balance on March 1, 2020, was $506.2 million.
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