*Differences due to rounding
(1) FY21 Personal Income includes $162M in deferred payments from FY20
(2) FY21 Corporate Income Tax includes $19.2M in deferred payments from FY20
by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine The General Fund, Transportation Fund and Education Fund all exceeded their monthly cash flow targets in December, despite a 12% miss by the Personal Income tax, which came in nearly $13 million below projections. The GF was led by the Corporate Income tax (up $10 million) and the Other category (up nearly $3 million), which includes interest income.
Interest has become an increasingly important revenue source as the state’s cash balance remains historically high in the post-pandemic era high (pushing $3 billion, or about 7 times pre-pandemic balances).
Meanwhile, the consumption taxes were a mixed bag. The tourism-related Meals & Room tax slumped by -3.62%, while the Sales & Use tax, which is often related to consumer confidence, was ahead by 3.71%.
The gasoline tax (10.14%) and car buying (6.27%) also had strong months.
Secretary of Administration Kristin Clouser released Vermont’s revenue results for December 2023 today. The report corresponds to the annual fiscal 2024 consensus forecast as adopted by the Emergency Board at its July 2023 meeting.
See all tables below.
Vermont’s General Fund, Transportation Fund, and Education Fund receipts were a combined $287.7 million, exceeding the $280.9 million monthly consensus target by $6.8 million, or 2.4%. Year-to-date combined receipts are $26.1 million, 1.7%, above their $1,512.6 million target.
General Fund revenues for December totaled $204.2 million, $4.4 million, or 2.2%, above the $199.8 million monthly consensus cash flow target. Corporate Income Tax receipts, Health Care Taxes, and the net Other receipts category surpassed their combined targets by $18.9 million.
These positive gains were offset by a combined -$14.5 million dollar underperformance by the Personal Income Tax, Meals and Rooms Tax, Insurance Tax, Estate Tax, Liquor Tax and net Property Transfer Tax.
Year-to-date GF receipts are $28.9 million, 2.9%, above their $991.0 million target.
Revenues in the Transportation Fund exceeded their $23.6 million December consensus target by $1.0 million, or 4.5%, yielding $24.6 million. The Gasoline Tax, Diesel Tax and Motor Vehicle Purchase and Use Tax all exceeded their monthly targets by a combined $1.2 million These positive gains were offset by a marginal -$0.1 million underperformance in the Motor Vehicle and Other Fees categories. Year-to-date receipts are -$5.9 million, -4.0%, below their $149.0 million target.
Monthly Education Fund revenues of $58.9 million were $1.4 million, 2.4%, above their December $57.5 million cash flow target. The $2.0 million of combined receipts above target from the Sales & Use Tax, and the Motor Vehicle Purchase and Use Tax were offset by a -$0.6 million underperformance by the Meals and Rooms Tax, Lottery Transfer and Interest Earnings. Year-to-date receipts are $3.1 million, 0.8%, above their $372.6 million target.
According to Secretary Clouser: “The December revenue results represent the first time since August that all three funds have managed to simultaneously meet or exceed their targets. This is welcome news as the Administration and General Assembly, once again, work to adjust the current year’s budget and prepare a financial plan for the upcoming fiscal year.”
Vermont Cash Balances by Year
Source: 1.31.2024. Office of the Secretary of Administration. Montpelier aoa.vermont.gov