Study predicts household electric bills for 2024, Vermont relatively low

• Hawaii is predicted to have the hardest hit, with this year’s household electricity bill estimated to cost up to $3,450.55.  
• In contrast, Utah is projected to have the most affordable annual electricity bill, totaling only $1,047.27.  
• The national average is forecasted to be approximately $1,730.55 per typical household.   

by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine New data has revealed which states are expected to have the highest electricity bills this year and which will have the lowest. Hawaii is anticipated to pay out the most, and Utah to pay out the least.  Vermont ranked lower than all New England states (33rd, $1,513.34), and was lower than the US average ($1,730.55).   

The study, conducted by Texas Electricity Ratings, analyzed state-by-state Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) data to predict the annual electricity bill across the country. 

EIA is an environmental watchdog NGO formed in London, England, in 1984, with offices in Washington, DC.

By comparing consumer costs between November 2022 and 2023, an annual increase was calculated for each state, determining a total bill for each household.   

You can further compare the most recent electric rates published by the US federal government's U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). 

See tables below. 

These data include rates based on categories. States have different rates set for different categories. For instance, Vermont has a lower residential rate than New York State, which in turn has lower commercial rates (as of November 2023 (the most recent data available). 

Note that electric rates do not translate into electric bills necessarily. For instance, Alabama's electric rate is 14.89 cents/kwh, far lower than Vermont's 21.57 cents/kwh, but their estimated bill is 10th highest at $2,064.63, nearly $500 more than Vermont's. Arizona's differential is even more pronounced (14.53 cents/kwh and 8th highest and estimated bills of $2,190.60). 

New England has by far the highest average residential rates in the Lower 48 US (27.40 cents per Kilowatt hour); the Upper Midwest states have the lowest (12.73/kwh). This does not translate necessarily into household bills because of factors like the rate differential between categories, consumption and conservation. Factors include air conditioning and home heating, solar panels and electric vehicles, home insulation and energy efficient appliances, and general consumer behavior.

The States Anticipating the Priciest Electricity Bill    

Hawaii stands out as the state with the highest projected annual electricity bill, totaling $3,450.55 per household. Despite consuming 24.5% less electricity than the national average, it bared the highest cost per kilowatt-hour nationwide last year at 43.53 cents. With expenses 2.6 times higher than the national average, residents in Hawaii are expected to pay $287.54 per month at their current consumption rates.  

Maine is projected to face the second-highest household electricity bill at $2,383.75, costing 30% less than Hawaii. Despite consuming 1.5 times less electricity annually than the national average, the state is expected to undergo the most substantial price increase among all states at 23.35%. Florida, expected to reach $2,367.14 this year, is also anticipating a price hike of 10%. With their 2023 bill estimated at around $2151.66, residents will now be paying about 16.9 cents per kilowatt-hour. Connecticut follows closely, with residents facing a cost of $2,362.28, a mere five dollars less than Maine, yet $264.13 more than the previous year. Lastly, Rhode Island is set to incur a charge of approximately $2,361.85, which is 36.5% more than the national average.     

Rounding out the top ten is Maryland at $2,265.19, California at $2,196.94, Arizona at $2,190.60, Nevada at $2,132.50, and Alabama at $2,064.63.     

The States Anticipating the Cheapest Electricity Bill    

In contrast, Utah can expect a substantially lower annual electricity bill, amounting to $1,047.27. Despite experiencing a 4.5% price increase over the past two years, residents can still be estimated to save $2,197.14 more than Hawaii. Whilst consuming 12.5% more electricity, Utah residents reportedly only paid 11.03 cents per kilowatt-hour in 2023 – 1.5 times lower than the national average.   

 Wyoming will receive the second-lowest bill at $1,110.19, costing only 6% more than Utah. Despite an annual electricity consumption that is 41.6% higher than in states like California, data predicts a minor price increase of 4.62%. Colorado, which is projected to hit around the $1,194.74 mark this year, is anticipating an even smaller price increase at 0.4%. Considering their average 2023 household bill was estimated at approximately $1,189.84, residents could only pay an extra five dollars. Montana follows suit, costing residents an additional $15 at $2,362.28, where they will now be paying 13 cents per kilowatt-hour. Finally, Illinois is expected to be charged around $1,227.15, marking a 29% cut from the national average.     

Making up the remaining top ten is New Mexico at $1,253.41, North Dakota at $1,290.96, Washington at $1,304.84, Nebraska at $1,306.60, and Kansas at $1,312.22.     

Commenting on the findings, a spokesperson for Texas Electricity Ratings said, "Where household electricity bills increased an average of 3.38% across the nation in 2023, consumers must gain insight into the factors shaping their electricity bills, going beyond the total costs for 2024.”    

"To navigate these changes effectively, households can consider embracing more energy-efficient practices. Simple adjustments, such as optimizing refrigerator and freezer temperatures, reducing shower durations, and incorporating energy-efficient lighting options like LEDs or motion-sensor lights, can significantly diminish electricity bills. Even choosing to launder clothes in warm or cold water, as opposed to hot water, makes an impactful step towards achieving both financial savings and environmental sustainability.”   

See Technical notes for additional information on the Commercial, Industrial, and Transportation sectors.
Notes: - See Glossary for definitions. - Values for 2022 are final. Values for 2023 are preliminary estimates based on a cutoff model sample.
See Technical Notes for a discussion of the sample design for the Form EIA-826.
Utilities and energy service providers may classify commercial and industrial customers based on either NAICS codes or demands or usage falling within specified limits by rate schedule.
Changes from year to year in consumer counts, sales and revenues, particularly involving the commercial and industrial consumer sectors, may result from respondent implementation of changes in the definitions of consumers, and reclassifications.
Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861M (formerly EIA-826), Monthly Electric Power Industry Report.
 

Source: 2.21.2024. Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) . U.S. Energy Information Administration. 

Methodology: The electricity consumption in each state was identified by analyzing the latest state-by-state EIA data. This analysis provided insights into the kWh usage per household. The prediction of electricity bills for 2024 involved comparing consumer electricity costs between November 2022 and November 2023. This allowed the identification of an annual percentage increase in costs for each state. Estimated usage was then multiplied by the November 2023 costs, and a total household figure for 2024 was calculated by incorporating the annual increase percentage.