Non-profit seeking to grow VT’s Middle Class releases latest report.
VermontBiz On Wednesday, Campaign for Vermont Prosperity (CFV) released a report examining migration patterns into and out of the state using Census and Internal Revenue Service data.
The report found that Vermont’s domestic and international in-migration is not significant and is insufficient to keep pace with the deficit of deaths to births in the state, contributing to the state’s demographic problems. Further, the report found that people leaving the state historically have generated more income than those moving into the state, however this reversed during the pandemic. It is unclear at this point whether this reversal from previous trends is permanent, or just the lingering effects of the pandemic.
“We see these results as cautionary,” said Ben Kinsley, Interim Executive Director of CFV. “There are real demographic issues that our state is facing and focusing on availability of housing and rebalancing our incentive programs to target specific occupations that are critical to our social infrastructure should be the priority. At the same time, it is unclear how mobile high-income earners are in a post-covid world and policymakers should proceed with caution when considering additional revenue from these taxpayers.”
The report found that recent Census and IRS data needs to be used and interpreted with care since both underlying sources of migration data were likely influenced by temporary population movements due to the Covid pandemic. Some examples of this were provided in the report. Art Woolf, author of the report, urged that “policymakers should examine longer term trends for a better look at any patterns of migration in and out of Vermont by age and income groupings instead of looking at one-year snapshots. This is particularly true during the pandemic timeframe when migration patterns departed from their historical trends.”
The report also found that, prior to the pandemic, the only age groups with net in-migration were 26-45 year olds (+208), but the numbers were not large enough to offset the number of people under the age of 26 who were leaving (-507). Further, the report found that only 4% of Vermont’s population is comprised of immigrants, compared to an average of 14% nationally.
“We hope that the legislature takes note of these findings,” said CFV President Pat McDonald, “the demographic challenges in Vermont are not improving and we believe the inaccessibility of housing is preventing more young people from moving here or staying here. Adding tax surcharges for the wealthy also does not seem to be the answer as there are real questions about tax flight and what that might do to our overall tax base and the state’s revenue streams.”
The full report can be found at CampaignForVermont.org.
CFV is a nonprofit, nonpartisan advocacy organization comprised of over 20,000 Vermonters and dedicated to the vision of a more prosperous Vermont and growing middle class. They seek to accomplish these goals by reconnecting Vermonters to their government and advocating for more transparent and accountable policymaking.
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