by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Tax revenues finished ahead of expectations for March, though by a very slim margin with personal income taxes and refunds still to be fully accounted. Personal income finished the month well ahead of its projection after several up and down months and continues to be above its fiscal year target. The sales & use and rooms & meals consumption taxes also had strong months.
Secretary of Administration Kristin Clouser released Vermont’s revenue results for March 2024 on Wednesday.
The General Fund and Education Fund both exceeded their monthly consensus cash flow targets, corresponding to the annual fiscal 2024 consensus forecast update as adopted by the Emergency Board at its January 2024 meeting. Total combined funds still exceeded monthly targets even with the Transportation Fund’s underperformance.
The State’s General Fund, Transportation Fund, and Education Fund receipts were a combined $246.1 million, exceeding the $245.1 million monthly consensus target by $1.0 million, or 0.4%. Combined receipts are $46.4 million, or 2.0%, above the updated $2,289.3 million target tied to the annual fiscal year 2024 consensus forecast adopted at the most recent Emergency Board meeting.
General Fund revenues for March totaled $164.9 million, $1.3 million, or 0.8%, above the $163.6 million monthly consensus cash flow target. The $12.5 million of combined receipts above target by the Health Care Taxes, Personal Income Tax, Meals and Rooms Tax, Net Property Transfer Tax, and Other categories more than offset the -$11.2 million combined underperformance by the Corporate Income Tax, Insurance Tax, Estate Tax, and Liquor proceeds.
State fiscal year-to-date General Fund receipts are $35.5 million, or 2.4%, above the consensus cash flow target of $1,514.4 million adopted at the most recent Emergency Board meeting.
Revenues in the Transportation Fund failed to achieve their $26.6 million March consensus target by just under -$1.8 million, or -6.7%, yielding $24.9 million. All receipts, except for a $0.1 million overperformance by the Other Fees category, failed to achieve their combined targets by -$1.9 million.
Transportation receipts are $7.5 million, or 3.5%, above their $211.8 million fiscal year-to-date consensus cash flow target.
Monthly Education Fund revenues of just over $56.3 million were $1.5 million, or 2.7%, above their March $54.9 million cash flow target. The $2.1 million combined receipts above target by the Sales & Use Tax and the Meals & Rooms Tax offset the -$0.6 million combined underperformance by the Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, Lottery Transfer and Interest Earnings.
Education receipts are $3.4 million, 0.6%, above their $563.1 million fiscal year-to-date consensus cash flow target.
According to Secretary Clouser: “As we enter the last quarter of the fiscal year, the March results signal the state will likely close the year in a good financial position. The General Fund performance has exceeded expectations, but caution is still necessary as tax refunds continue to be processed and the results of the annual Spring Personal Income Tax filing season are still pending.”
Source: Montpelier, VT - Agency of Administration. April 17, 2024