Vermont Business Magazine Secretary of Administration Kristin Clouser today released Vermont’s revenue results for November 2023. Education Fund revenues exceeded their November target. However, after several strong months the vital Personal Income Tax was off by over 10 percent, setting back the General Fund. The Transportation Fund likewise failed to achieve its monthly consensus cash flow target, as supporting revenue components all under-achieved. All these results correspond to the annual fiscal 2024 consensus forecast as adopted by the Emergency Board at its July 2023 meeting.
The State’s General Fund, Transportation Fund, and Education Fund receipts were a combined $219.8 million, missing the $225.8 million monthly consensus target by -$6.0 million, or -2.7%. Year-to-date combined receipts are $19.2 million, 1.6%, above their $1,231.7 million target.
General Fund revenues for November totaled $138.8 million, -$7.0 million, or -4.8%, below the $145.8 million monthly consensus cash flow target.
Corporate Income Tax receipts, Health Care Taxes, Meals and Rooms Taxes, Insurance Taxes, Liquor Taxes and the net Other receipts category surpassed their combined targets by $3.0 million.
These positive gains were offset by a combined -$9.9-million-dollar underperformance by the Personal Income Tax, Estate Tax and net Property Transfer Tax. Year-to-date receipts are $24.5 million, 3.1%, above their $791.2 million target.
Revenues in the Transportation Fund missed their $22.1 million November consensus target by -$2.1 million, or -9.6%, yielding only $20.0 million. None of the individual revenue categories achieved their consensus monthly targets except for a marginal $0.2 million positive performance by the Other Fees category. Year-to-date receipts are -$7.0 million, -5.6%, below their $125.4 million target.
Monthly Education Fund revenues of $60.9 million were $3.1 million, 5.3%, above their November $57.9 million cash flow target.
The $3.8 million of combined receipts from the Sales & Use Tax, Meals and Rooms Tax, Lottery Transfer and Interest Earnings above their respective targets were offset by a -$0.7 million underperformance by the Motor Vehicle Purchase and Use Tax. Year-to-date Education receipts are $1.7 million, 0.6%, above their $315.1 million target.
Secretary Clouser said: “The General Fund remains above yearly consensus targets in the face of multiple economic uncertainties; however, whether its current revenue surplus will carry through to year end or be consumed by a downturn during the second half of the year, remains to be seen. As always, the administration continues to monitor the current fiscal environment and stands ready to adapt operations as necessary.”
Source: December 21, 2023. Montpelier, VT - Secretary of Administration