Vermont’s unemployment rate holds at 2.1 percent in August

by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Today, the Vermont Department of Labor reported that Vermont's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August was unchanged at the historically low rate of 2.1 percent. All three major metrics showed a more modest change than in recent months, while indicating vast improvement from a year ago. The rate is based on household data and is subject to adjustment. The comparable United States rate in August was 3.7 percent, an increase of two-tenths of one percentage point from the revised July estimate. Vermont has the fourth lowest jobless rate in the nation, behind Minnesota (1.9%), New Hampshire and Utah (both 2.0%). The civilian labor force participation rate rose to 61.8 percent in August, an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point. The participation rate has been rising slowly and is important to workforce availability.

Vermont Labor Commissioner Michael Harrington said: “With the changing of the seasons on the horizon, Vermont’s economy is recording historically low levels of unemployment insurance claims based on available data going back to 1982. Low availability of labor combined with a high number of job openings is making it difficult for Vermont to fully recover from the latest economic downturn. Over the spring and summer months, the Department worked to provide more opportunities than ever to connect jobseekers and employers by offering 14 in-person jobs fairs since April. In the end, more than 7,600 individuals and 624 employers participated in these events. The Department continues to seek out new ways to engage with jobseekers and employers. Staff are available for in-person or virtual career and training services. Students, jobseekers and businesses are encouraged to visit Labor.Vermont.gov/Jobs for information on events and services.”

The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for August show the Vermont civilian labor force increased by 594 from the prior month’s revised estimate (see Table 1 at top). The number of employed persons increased by 586 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 8. None of the changes were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.

The August unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 1.6 percent in White River Junction to 3.2 percent in Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted – see Table 2). For comparison, the August unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 2.0 percent, a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted July level and a decrease of one and two-tenths percentage points from a year ago.

Meanwhile, weekly unemployment insurance claims have fallen to under 200 (189), which is in the historically low range and below pre-pandemic levels. The UI trust fund has grown by nearly $40 million over the last year to $250 million. (see tables at bottom).

Seasonally-Adjusted (Table 3)

The seasonally-adjusted data for August reported a decrease of 500 jobs from the revised July data. There was also a decrease of 300 jobs between the preliminary and the revised July estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in August were varied at the industry level. Those with a notable increase included: State Government (+600 jobs or +3.2%), Other Services (+200 jobs or +1.9%), and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing (+200 jobs or +1.7%). Industries with a notable decrease included: Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (-300 jobs or -6.7%), Local Government (-1,800 jobs or -5.9%), and Administrative and Waste Services (-300 jobs or -2.5%).

Not-Seasonally-Adjusted (Table 4)

The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for August showed a decrease of 600 jobs when compared to the revised July numbers. As with the ‘seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised July numbers which experienced an increase of 200 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The broader economic picture can be seen by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ August data, Total Private industries increased by 5,700 jobs (+2.3%) over the year and Government (including public education) employment increased by 1,700 jobs (+3.5%) in the past year.

Last Modified Date: September 16, 2022

9.16.2022. Montpelier www.labor.vermont.gov