VDH: COVID cases down to over 300

Vermont Business Magazine The Vermont Department of Health today is reporting 345 cases of COVID-19 for Wednesday. There were 504 on Tuesday, 304 on Monday, 98 on Sunday, 294 cases on Saturday, 323 on Friday and 417 on Thursday. Cases have edged up in recent weeks, especially in Bennington and Washington counties, and grew 5 percent in the last week (2,317 new cases, 318 more cases compared to last week).

VDH reported no additional deaths from the virus. The total death toll is now 639 lives lost. April, with 18 to date, has surpassed March's total. March saw the fewest COVID deaths since last July. Fatalities and hospitalizations increased the last part of April.

According to health officials, most deaths lately have been of the very elderly and/or people with underlying health conditions and "not up to date" on their vaccines, meaning that if eligible to have received a booster.

Health Commissioner Mark Levine, MD, reiterated that the booster was most important in preventing the most serious outcomes.

While a majority of COVID cases are among females (52%), males account for more of the deaths (54.8%).

Serious outcomes, such as hospitalizations and deaths, are now a more accurate representation of COVID impact, as the state is highly vaccinated and home testing and those results are less known because they require self-reporting, officials have said. Still, Vermont has a relatively high test rate. Some other states have ended their testing programs.

Vermont, meanwhile, has the lowest level of "natural immunity" from having contracted COVID in the nation at 29 percent, Dr Levine said, while the US average is over 60 percent with some states over 70 percent. He said this is from a combination of local mitigation measures, like mask wearing and social distancing, and the subsequent high rate of vaccination uptake (number one in the nation in vaccine plus booster; second lowest death rate to Hawaii).

Vermont officials urge Vermonters to report results at the healthvermont.gov site, including if they are negative.

Hospitalizations were elevated in April and today were 56 (down 1). The record was 122 on January 19. Health officials have focused on this as a key indicator. They had been running over 100 in early February, before a dramatic fall since, ahead of the recent increase.

Hospitalizations have increased from 6 per day to 11.7 per day to 16 per day now.

ICU stays, which also have been elevated, but stable, were 12 today (up 2), after being at zero most days in late March. The one-day record there was set December 7, 2021, (31).

The seven-day positivity rate is now 13.2 percent down from 13.3% on Friday; the record was 13.8% set January 8.

There were 49 COVID-19 related fatalities in Vermont in September 2021, and 47 deaths in October, which are the fifth- and sixth-worst months on record. There were 42 fatalities in November, 62 in December, and 65 in January 2022, 59 in February, 17 in March and 18 so far in April (verification of cases can lag). The Delta variant caused a surge in COVID-related fatalities last fall and into the winter.

More than half of all deaths have been of Vermonters 80 or over.

While the highest concentration of deaths were from last September through February, December 2020 was the worst month with 71.

COVID cases now are highest per capita in the last two weeks in Washington, Bennington, Chittenden and Franklin counties. Cases in Bennington have seen a recent surge.

Cases in the Northeast Kingdom, which had been a COVID hot spot earlier in the pandemic and also last month, have fallen in the last couple weeks.

Weekly Data Modeling

Presented by DFR Commissioner Michael Pieciak

Department of Financial Regulation Data Modeling was updated May 3, 2022 (click HERE for all 33 slides).

• The 7-day average has increased from 285 to 326 (+5%) cases per day over the last week
• Vermont reported 2,317 new COVID-19 cases this week, 318 more cases compared to last week
• Week-over-week testing was flat
• Test positivity increased over the last 7 days
• COVID-19 fatalities are expected to remain low over the next 4 weeks
• Average hospital admissions increased this week from 11.7 to 16 per day
• Hospitalizations increased this week, now averaging 58
• The number of COVID-19 patients in the ICU increased this week to average of 8
• 27 hospital beds available on May 3, 2022
• 15 ICU beds available on May 3, 2022
• 639 COVID-19 deaths since the start of the pandemic
• New England cases increased from 5,099 to 5,385 cases per day (+5.6%) in the last week
• During the peak of the Omicron wave, New England recorded 38,000 cases per day
• Boston COVID-19 wastewater data started to trend down over the last week (Note: last week was school vacation so fewer people may have been in metro Boston)
• Regional cases have increased, as the Northeast tends to be on the leading edge of regions to see an increase/decrease in Omicron.

Health Commissioner Dr Mark Levine said that given the experience of the United Kingdom, he would anticipate that Omicron BA.2 variant cases should drop off in a couple of weeks.

However, there are new variant of Omicron, which tend to be more transmissible than the original, he said. There is also a new Omicron variant emerging in South Africa.

The state is relying more on home tests, which then must be self-reported. You must pick up the antigen tests at a state site, pharmacy or doctor's office. The state is no longer mailing them.

Dr Levine has said that the state's testing sites would offer take-home antigen and LAMP tests, as well as the usual PCR tests while they remain open. The antigen and LAMP (similar to a PCR) offer much faster results. PCR tests will still be available to those who want or need them. For instance, some travel destinations still require a negative PCR test.

Overall testing has fallen precipitously since early fall, but is now up 18 percent over the last week.

PCR tests are the most expensive option to the state, but all are free to Vermonters.

As the Omicron BA.2 variant is now the most common coronavirus variant in New England (over 90 percent), overall cases have increased 29 percent in the region over the last week; hospitalizations have increased 24 percent and were rising last week.

Health Commissioner Mark Levine also said the FDA has approved a second booster (four shots total) for both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines for people 50 and older or 12+ with certain health conditions.

However, he said April 12 that he is recommending it only for 65+ and those with certain medical conditions. While it is not in any way harmful to those younger, there does not appear to be much efficacy for it now. The important shots are the first two plus the first booster. Those vaccinations have been shown to be the best in preventing serious health outcomes.

Dr Levine emphasized that everyone should get fully vaccinated and the first booster, if age-eligible, especially if they are immunocompromised. The only exception, he said, would be an allergic reaction to the vaccine itself.

Governor Scott has said he is waiting for clarification, but intends to get the extra booster at some time. He said he may wait until next fall ahead of when the usual flu season would begin.

In response to an overall decline in cases since February, and with the highest vaccination and booster rates in the nation, the state will discontinue some of their "expensive" vaccination and testing clinics as of April 1 and will take only walk-ins.

Health Commissioner Dr Mark Levine has said that pharmacies and health care providers are well prepared and able to do both.

At Governor Scott's regular media briefing April 12, Dr Levine assured Vermonters that if there was another surge in cases that the state would again "stand up" its testing clinics as needed.

The elderly are the most vulnerable and most encouraged to get vaccinated and boosted, Dr Levine said. ​According to the VDH, 82 percent of eligible Vermonters (5+) have been completed their vaccination regimen and a total of 68 percent (12+) have received a booster shot.

Dr Levine said that evidence of more cases from BA.2 in Asia and Europe is very regional, not universal, so it's hard to predict what will happen here. BA.2 is more transmissible but it appears not to be more dangerous than the original Omicron variant.

The United Kingdom is reporting another new Omicron variant called XE that is a recombinant form (one or more people contracted two different variants to form a new subvariant). There have been fewer than 1,000 cases confirmed so far and its transmissibility is not known yet.

With low levels of severe disease and effective tools to prevent COVID-19, Vermont health officials on March 14 ended COVID-19 public health recommendations, which includes recommending masks in indoor public spaces.

Last Wednesday, the University of Vermont, with a 100 percent vaccine rate for students and staff, announced that it would end its mask mandate on March 19.

Most cities and towns also have let mandates expire.

The CDC and Vermont are emphasizing serious health outcomes, such as hospitalizations and fatalities, and not overall cases, as the best measure of COVID's health impact at this time.

An Omicron sub-variant (BA.2) is showing an increase in cases in Europe. And while it is already in Vermont and the US and appears to be more transmissible, cases have not increased because of it yet, nor does it yet appear to be more dangerous.

It was on March 13, 2020 that Governor Scott declared a State of Emergency, which closed many businesses and all the schools and left most people working from home, if they had any work at all.

The new prevention guidance focuses on recommending Vermonters consider their own circumstances and risk in deciding what precautions to take – including wearing a mask around others – to protect themselves, loved ones and those at higher risk from COVID-19. The guidance had previously recommended wearing a mask in all indoor public spaces.

The state has also simplified its guidance for anyone who tests positive or is in close contact with someone who tests positive. Vermonters are still strongly urged to be up to date on vaccinations against the virus.

“As we continue moving forward and evolving our management of this virus, it’s important to reflect on the progress we’ve made, and how much Vermonters have stepped up over the last two years,” said Governor Phil Scott. “Although COVID isn’t going away, we’re in a much different place than we were not too long ago, and we know how to protect ourselves. Vaccination remains the best tool in our toolbox to protect yourself and others, and we continue to encourage anyone who hasn’t to get vaccinated and boosted.”

The updated guidance calls for people who test positive to isolate for five days — even if you are vaccinated or never have symptoms. Recommendations no longer include a negative test to end isolation or masking for an additional five days after isolation.

For people who are considered close contacts of someone who tested positive, quarantine is no longer recommended.

However, if you are not vaccinated or not up to date on your vaccines, you should get tested around five days after your contact occurred. Any close contact should get tested if they develop symptoms, regardless of vaccination status.

These changes do not apply to health care settings, including long term care facilities, or other congregate settings that follow separate guidance.

With less risk of COVID-19 and the critical tools to protect ourselves — through vaccines, testing and treatment, Health Commissioner Mark Levine, MD said we can live more safely, with the virus causing less disruption in our daily lives.

“The COVID-19 virus will be with us for a long time, but the data tells us we have arrived at a point where people can decide for themselves if they want to take precautions based on their own personal level of risk,” Dr. Levine said.

Dr. Levine emphasized, however, that low levels of virus is not the same as no virus, and that we need to remain prepared in case the virus changes again.

“If we have learned anything about COVID-19 over these past two years, it is that the virus is good at evolving,” Dr. Levine said. “With many surges and new variants, nearly all of us have been affected in some way, and too many have suffered serious illness and tragic losses. I am hopeful we are finally coming to the end of the pandemic, but that will only be the case if people are thoughtful about their safety and activities – and stay up to date on vaccinations.”

Importantly, hospitalizations and ICU stays are much lower than even a couple weeks ago. Meanwhile, the record daily high of COVID-19 cases was set January 7, with 2,975.

January 2022 had by far the most cases by month, with 38,500 because of the Omicron variant. December 2021 was second worst with 16,091. December 2021 was third worst with 10,134, February 2022 was fourth with 7,585 and October 2021 was fifth with 6,572, as the worst months for overall cases were all in the last eight.

Case information reflects counts as of the end of the previous weekday. All data are compiled by the Health Department and are preliminary and subject to change.

April 26, 2022 data is below:

Case information reflects counts as of the end of the previous weekday. All data are compiled by the Health Department and are preliminary and subject to change.

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