by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine The seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate in Vermont for January was 3.0 percent. This reflects a decrease of one-tenth from December. Adjusted population and labor force estimates have resulted in an overall increase in the number of unemployed in Vermont. The December 2021 rate was adjusted upward to 3.1 percent from the original estimate of 2.5 percent. At the beginning of each year the Vermont Department of Labor adjusts rates based on revised data from the US Census. This results in a lag in reporting of the January rate. This can also result in significant readjustments to the prior months, such as this year.
The Vermont labor force has declined by over 26,000 since January 2019, just before the pandemic hit the state. But the new estimates show a labor force increase from last year and last month, while the number of unemployed keeps growing. The gain in the number of employed slightly offset the losses from last month. All this resulted in a higher starting point for last year's data.
Meanwhile, the comparable United States rate in January was 4.0 percent, which was an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised December estimate.
The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for January show the Vermont civilian labor force increased by 777 from the prior month’s revised estimate (see Table 1). The number of employed persons increased by 941 and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 164. The change to the number of employed persons was statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.
Vermont Labor Commissioner Michael Harrington said: “Though this press release announces new monthly data, it also marks the re-release of historical data for the 2021 calendar year, which happens simultaneously with the January numbers. This is more noticeable this year because the partial results from the 2020 Census are incorporated into statistical models for the first time. Most notably, the results of the 2020 Census reflected an unexpected bump in Vermont’s population to 643,077. This higher population resulted in an increase to all the major components of the labor force. Even though the labor force and employment estimates have been re-estimated to higher levels, the statistical models still identify a significant drop in the labor force and the number of employed persons following the start of the ‘COVID-recession’. Relative to January 2019, the January 2022 estimates show a decline of over 26,000 Vermonters from the labor force, a significant shift in a very short amount of time. As Vermont continues to recover, the Department of Labor has expanded its business services team and added a foreign labor specialist in order to meet the needs of Vermont jobseekers and employers. If you are looking for work or have an opening you’re looking to fill, be sure to visit VermontJobLink.com.”
The January unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 2.6 percent in White River Junction to 6.9 percent in Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted – see Table 2). For comparison, the January unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 3.5 percent, which was an increase of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted December level and a decrease of nine-tenths of one percentage point from a year ago.
Analysis of Job Changes by Industry
The seasonally-adjusted data for January reports an increase of 400 jobs from the revised December data. There was an increase of 1,700 jobs between the preliminary and the revised December estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in January were varied at the industry level. Those with a notable increase include: Mining & Logging (+100 jobs or +12.5%) and Construction (+300 jobs or +2.0%). Industries with a notable decrease include: Private Education Services (-300 jobs or -2.5%) and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (-100 or -2.4%).
The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for January shows a decrease of 8,400 jobs when compared to the revised December numbers. As with the ‘seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised December numbers which experienced an increase of 100 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The broader economic picture can be seen by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ January data, Total Private industries have increased by 10,000 jobs (+4.3%) and Government (including public education) employment has increased by 1,800 jobs (+3.5%) in the past year.
The Unemployment and Jobs Report for February is scheduled to be released on Friday, March 25th, 2022 at 10:00am. View the most recent report from our Labor Market Information division at http://www.vtlmi.info/press.pdf.
Source: Vermont Labor Department 3.14.2022
