by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Weekly unemployment claims were up last week for the first time since the week after Christmas. Claims during the holidays typically result in a roller coaster of hirings and firings, to meet the ebb and flow of retail, before settling out after New Year.
As for last week's unemployment claims in Vermont, there were 607 regular initial claims, up 238 for the week but 396 fewer than this time last year.
Last week there were a total of 4,539 regular claims, up 154 from the week before and down 8,551 from last year.
The state unemployment rate is also near its low pre-pandemic levels of 2.5% for December 2021. Vermont has the fifth lowest unemployment rate in the nation and lowest East of the Mississippi.
Because the year-end needs to be rectified, as usual, the January 2022 unemployment rate will not be released until March 14. The February rate will be released March 25.
The Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation programs (PUA, etc) have now expired and nearly all claims have played out.
In as the COVID-19 pandemic enters its third year, Governor Scott maintains that the workforce shortage is the biggest threat to the local economy. The tight workforce preceded the pandemic and has been exacerbated by it. Nationally, 3 million people have left the labor force and only about a third of those are expected to ever return.
Other local indicators remain strong, however. Personal income tax revenues and consumption taxes in Vermont continue to exceed expectations. The governor also will rescind special pandemic mitigation measures for schools as of March 14, which means the state will no longer be recommending mask wearing for students or staff in school or on the buses.
Meanwhile, the state's Unemployment Trust Fund (SEE BELOW) remains in a strong position. Vermont began the pandemic with $506 million in its trust fund. As of the most recent week, the fund stands at $229.0 million, down $1.8 million from last week and up $8.3 million from last year.
The Trust Fund took a big hit initially from the pandemic, but quickly stabilized as the Paycheck Protection Program and FPUC kicked in.
Meanwhile, according to the US Department of Labor, initial claims nationally fell to 215,000, down 18,000 and below economists estimates (225,000). This is the lowest level since January 1. Continuing claims rose slightly to 1.48 million, but the four-week moving average was 1.54 million, which is the lowest its been since April 4, 1970.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm productivity rose 6.6% last week, just under the 6.7% expectation. Unit labor costs exceeded the 0.3% estimate and rose 0.9%,
The US unemployment rate, reported today, fell to 3.8% in February from January's 4%. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 678,000, which exceeds economists expectations of 440,000. There are still about 11 million job openings across the nation.
The stock market, meanwhile, is still mired in a four-week downward curve as the Russian invasion of Ukraine grinds on. Wall Street analysts are concerned that this could further increase inflation.
Governor, Department of Labor recognize Employee Appreciation Day in Vermont
