VDH: COVID cases hold, four more deaths for 583

Starting February 5, the case dashboard will not be updated on Saturdays, Sundays or holidays. A breakdown of the previous days' cases will be reported on Mondays (or the day following a holiday). See below. Graphics courtesy VDH.

by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine The Vermont Department of Health today is reporting 263 cases of COVID-19 for Thursday, up from Wednesday's 243. There were four additional COVID-related deaths for 583 statewide. The four people who died were all over 70. While cases and hospitalizations have been falling, the fatality rate has remained relatively high and has been running about two a day on average. COVID cases have been falling here and across the nation, but the fatality rate has yet to fall.

The record daily high of COVID-19 cases was set January 7, with 2,975.

With case counts falling, the seven-day positivity rate is now 5.5%; the record was 13.8% set January 8. Testing is also down.

Health Commissioner Mark Levine, MD, said Tuesday that he expects fatalities to subside in the next couple weeks. He said there are no variants on the horizon, unlike the Delta variant from last summer and Omicron from late fall.

There were 49 COVID-19 related fatalities in Vermont in September 2021, and 47 deaths in October, which are the fourth- and fifth-worst months on record. There were 42 fatalities in November, 62 in December, and 65 in January 2022 and 38 so far in December.

While the highest concentration of deaths has been in the last six months, December 2020 was the worst month with 71.

Hospitalizations have also fallen over the last two weeks, but at a slower rate than overall case declines. Governor Scott reiterated Tuesday that hospitalizations are a more important indicator of COVID's impact than total case counts at this point.

Hospitalizations today were 57 (unchanged). The record was 122 on January 19. Health officials have focused on this as a key indicator. They had been running over 100 the previous few weeks.

ICU stays, which also have been elevated but less volatile, were 12 (down 3). The one-day record there was set December 7, 2021, (31).

Dr Levine said those who are not fully vaccinated (which includes a booster for those eligible) are more likely to be hospitalized for COVID-19.

According to the VDH, 80 percent of eligible Vermonters (5+) have been completed their vaccination regimen and a total of 64 percent (12+) have received a booster shot.

Dr Levine said that most of the recent deaths are in people who are elderly and either not fully vaccinated or have underlying health conditions. Deaths have not been falling even as case counts have subsided in late January, which had the second most COVID-related fatalities (65) since the beginning of the pandemic.

Dr Levine said it is likely that recent fatalities are still the result of earlier Delta variant infections. But because of the high rate of Omicron transmission since late fall, it also could have had an impact on the rise in fatalities. He said it will take some time to analyze the data to figure that out.

He added that the demographic of those having serious health effects and dying from COVID are more similar to those who have similar results from the typical flu season. Flu cases have been substantially lower during the last two years because of the COVID-related precautions.

As it is now, the pandemic appears to be waning and cases are more like they were in early December. Dr Levine cautioned, however, that we cannot predict with certainty what direction the SARS CoV2 virus will take, so it's important to get vaccinated and boosted.

He added that it appears, however, that we are transitioning from "pandemic" to "endemic," like the seasonal flu. Vaccinations for it might become a regular recommendation going forward. We just don't know yet, he said.

As case counts fall and younger children get vaccinated, the Vermont Agency of Education will implement its 80 percent rule beginning February 28. Schools that have at least 80 percent vaccination among students will receive financial bonuses from the state and the state will recommend that they cease their mask requirements.

Most schools in Vermont are not at 80 percent. Even now school districts have the discretion on whether to require masking for students and staff, but nearly all do.

Other states like Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island are dropping their mandates or guidance. Governor Scott said that for now his administration is still recommending masks for indoor gatherings at school and in public.

Scott indicated that he could change that recommendation in March. However, he said that Vermont got the Omicron spike later than nearby states and is also coming out of it later.

There is no state mandate in Vermont, but school districts, municipalities, businesses and nonprofits can all issue one for their own entities.

"I'm very encouraged," Governor Scott said at his press briefing February 1, as weekly case counts and hospitalizations continue to fall. The VDH will no longer update the COVID dashboard on the weekend, but will include those numbers during the daily report, which will continue.

Cases were 243 on Wednesday; 375 on Tuesday; 158 on Monday; 120 on Sunday; 247 on Saturday; 283 on Friday; 391 on Thursday, and 398 last Wednesday.

Cases now are highest per capita in the last two weeks in Bennington, Rutland, Orleans and Franklin counties.

Department of Financial Regulation Data Modeling for February 15, 2022 (click HERE for all 62 slides).

Weekly Data Modeling presented by DFR Commissioner Michael Pieciak

• Vermont is averaging 304 cases over the last 7 days
• The 7-day average has decreased 23% over the last 7 days & decreased 55% over the last 14 days
• Cases down 84% since the Omicron Peak
• Vermont reported 2,171 new COVID-19 cases this week, 762 fewer cases compared to last week
• Fewest weekly case since November 1, 2021
• The not fully vaccinated case rate has decreased 34% in the last 7 days
• The fully vaccinated rate has decreased 25% during the same period
• Over the last 7 days, cases have:
  ● Decreased 27% for ages 0 to 24
  ● Decreased 31% for ages 25 to 49
  ● Decreased 22% for ages 50 to 64
  ● Decreased 18% for ages 65+
• Vermont ranked 31st for the rate of new COVID-19 cases over the last week
• Vermont had the 2nd highest rate of COVID-19 testing over the last week
• Vermont COVID-19 cases are expected to continue to decline in the coming weeks, consistent with improving case trends in Vermont, the Northeast and the U.S.
• Declines in COVID-19 fatalities are expected over the next 4 weeks
• 31% decrease in the new hospital admission 7-day average over the past week
• 15% Decrease in the 7-day hospitalization average over the past week
• 10% decrease in the 7-day ICU average over the past week
• Reported influenza hospitalizations in Vermont remain low
• Hospitalizations continue to be more common among older Vermonters
• Those 18+ & not fully vaccinated were nearly 7x more likely to be hospitalized from COVID-19 over the last 6 weeks compared to those fully vaccinated & boosted
• Vermont had the 2nd-fewest COVID-19 hospital admissions per capita over the last week
• Those 18+ & not fully vaccinated were 7.5x more likely to die from COVID-19 over the last 6 weeks compared to those fully vaccinated & boosted.
• Vermont had the 6th-fewest COVID-19 deaths per capita over the last week.
• Vermont leads the nation in the percentage of 5 to 17 year olds starting vaccination at 76.3%
• Vermont leads the nation in the percentage of 5 to 17 year olds who are fully vaccinated at 66.8%
• Vermont leads the nation in the percentage of fully vaccinated 12 to 17 year olds who are boosted at 34.5%.

Summary of Recent Booster Studies

• Boosters were 90% effective against Omicron hospitalizations and 82% effective against ED/urgent care visits.
• Case rates among unvaccinated adults were 5x higher compared to those with a booster (case rates in vaccinated but not yet boosted adults were nearly 2x as high compared to those adults who were boosted).
• Having a booster reduces your risk of symptomatic infection by 67% compared to those who are unvaccinated and 66% compared to those who are fully vaccinated.

Starting February 5, the case dashboard will not be updated on Saturdays, Sundays or holidays. A breakdown of the previous days' cases will be reported on Mondays (or the day following a holiday).

The Case Dashboard is updated Monday - Friday, typically by 1:00 p.m.

Case information reflects counts as of the end of the previous weekday. All data are compiled by the Health Department and are preliminary and subject to change.

Testing

Addison County New Cases: 8 Recent Cases - Past 14 Days: 119 Cases Per 100,000 - Past 14 Days: 321.9 Bennington County New Cases: 17 Recent Cases - Past 14 Days: 200 Cases Per 100,000 - Past 14 Days: 561.3 Caledonia County New Cases: 3 Recent Cases - Past 14 Days: 84 Cases Per 100,000 - Past 14 Days: 277.2 Chittenden County New Cases: 25 Recent Cases - Past 14 Days: 517 Cases Per 100,000 - Past 14 Days: 314.1 Essex County New Cases: 0 Recent Cases - Past 14 Days: 18 Cases Per 100,000 - Past 14 Days: 288 Franklin County New Cases: 10 Recent Cases - Past 14 Days: 179 Cases Per 100,000 - Past 14 Days: 362.2 Grand Isle County New Cases: 2 Recent Cases - Past 14 Days: 18 Cases Per 100,000 - Past 14 Days: 253.9 Lamoille County New Cases: 5 Recent Cases - Past 14 Days: 42 Cases Per 100,000 - Past 14 Days: 166 Orange County New Cases: 6 Recent Cases - Past 14 Days: 62 Cases Per 100,000 - Past 14 Days: 213.8 Orleans County New Cases: 3 Recent Cases - Past 14 Days: 113 Cases Per 100,000 - Past 14 Days: 420 Pending Validation New Cases: 137 Recent Cases - Past 14 Days: 1,895 Cases Per 100,000 - Past 14 Days: 0 Rutland County New Cases: 20 Recent Cases - Past 14 Days: 290 Cases Per 100,000 - Past 14 Days: 494.3 Washington County New Cases: 12 Recent Cases - Past 14 Days: 209 Cases Per 100,000 - Past 14 Days: 359.5 Windham County New Cases: 5 Recent Cases - Past 14 Days: 80 Cases Per 100,000 - Past 14 Days: 187.1 Windsor County New Cases: 10 Recent Cases - Past 14 Days: 145 Cases Per 100,000 - Past 14 Days: 262.3

​As for testing, the state will be relying more heavily on self reporting as rapid antigen tests become more prominent and more available.

While the first 350,000 tests were distributed in a program that began in January, all Vermont residents who have not successfully ordered one can request a rapid, at home test through the VDH when the state is able to distribute the next allotment of 150,000 tests: SayYesCovidHomeTest.org

Rapid antigen tests are now more widely available at local pharmacies and the cost should be reimbursed by your health insurance provider.

Federal COVID rapid tests are now available at COVIDtests.gov - Free at-home COVID-19 tests

Also, people should upgrade their masks to N95 or similar because Omicron is better able to get through a regular cloth mask. Dr Levine urged Vermonters to wear a double mask if an N95-type mask was not available.

As for the adult population, the state will begin to roll out free antigen test kits for the general public beginning Wednesday on the healthvermont.gov website starting at 10 am. The state has 250,000 kits (each kit has two tests and an individual should take both at least 24 hours apart).

The federal government will release similar kits in the coming weeks.

The state and federal kits are on a first-come basis.

Pharmacies also may have kits available, though that is more hit or miss. However, most insurance will cover the cost of kits (about $25) either upfront or reimbursed.

The state began distributing 500,000 at-home rapid antigen tests starting on January 12 at 10 am trough the healthvermont.gov website. The first allotment of 350,000 was allocated by the afternoon.

The State opened registration for COVID-19 booster shots for children 12 to 15 years old on Thursday, January 6, following approval by CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky.

This age group can receive their Pfizer booster as early as five months after their second Pfizer dose. Children ages 16 and 17 have already been eligible for a Pfizer booster but can now also get their booster shot as soon as five months after the second dose.

The new five month wait time for a booster shot also applies to anyone 18 and older who received the Pfizer vaccine. They can get a Pfizer or Moderna booster.

To make an appointment, parents and caregivers can go online effective immediately at healthvermont.gov/MyVaccine or by calling 855-722-7878.

• In addition to expanding booster eligibility to those under 12, the FDA also shortened the waiting time between the primary series of the Pfizer vaccine and the third shot (booster) from six months to five.
• The FDA also authorized a third primary-series dose for immunocompromised children over 5 years old.

In addition to being vaccinated and boosted, Vermonters should continue taking these common-sense precautions to protect against the spread of the virus in our communities.

• Stay home if you feel sick.
• Get tested if you have any symptoms – even if mild, or if you may be a close contact, or have taken part in activities that could put you at risk, such as large gatherings or travel.
• Wear a mask at indoor public settings and around anyone at higher risk of COVID-19.
• Gather with others safely, which means small group sizes and testing before holiday celebrations.

For more information:

• Vaccination and booster locations: healthvermont.gov/MyVaccine
• Protecting yourself: healthvermont.gov/preventCOVID19
• Testing for Covid-19: healthvermont.gov/covid-19/testing

Learn more about the Omicron variant from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/omicron-variant.html

See Case and Vaccine Dashboards Below