VDH: COVID cases edge down again, five deaths for 553

The VDH will no longer be updating the COVID dashboard on the weekend. Weekend data will be reported on Monday.

by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine The Vermont Department of Health today is reporting 508 cases of COVID-19 for Thursday. Cases in Vermont last week plummeted by more than 3,000—a decrease of 40%. In the last two weeks, cases have fallen 56%. However, the VDH today reported five additional deaths for 553. One death was in the 30-39 age group, of which there have been only eight since the beginning of the pandemic.

January had the second most fatalities with 62; this number could increase once all the data is accumulated.

COVID-related deaths, which are a lagging indicator, are attributed to the Delta variant, even as nearly all the new COVID cases are the result of exposure to the Omicron variant.

There were 49 COVID-19 related fatalities in Vermont in September 2021, and 47 deaths in October, which are the fourth- and fifth-worst months on record. There were 42 fatalities in November, 62 in December, and 62 so far in January 2022. December 2020 was the worst month with 71.

Hospitalizations today were 92 (up one from yesterday). The record was 122 on January 19. Health officials have focused on this as a key indicator. They had been running over 100 the last few weeks.

ICU stays, which also have been elevated, were 21 (down two). The one-day record there was set December 7, 2021, (31). Like deaths, hospitalizations tend to lag case trends either way.

While Vermont was slower to get the Omicron variant than the rest of the Northeast, it is showing a similar trend with a spike followed by an overall sharp decrease in cases.

"I'm very encouraged," Governor Scott said at his press briefing Tuesday, as weekly case counts and hospitalizations continue to fall. The VDH will no longer update the COVID dashboard on the weekend, but will include those numbers during the daily report, which will continue.

Cases were 574 on Wednesday; 677 on Tuesday; 354 on Monday; 317 on Sunday; 597 on Saturday; 481 for Friday; 882 cases Thursday; and 1,490 last Wednesday.

Cases now are highest per capita in the last two weeks in Bennington, Rutland and Franklin counties.

The record daily high of COVID-19 cases was set January 7, with 2,975. Case rates appear to be declining in Vermont and in the Northeast. However, declines in COVID-19 fatalities are expected to lag behind case improvements in coming weeks.

With case counts elevated but falling the last couple weeks, the seven-day positivity rate is now 8.9%; the record was 13.8% set January 8. Testing is also down.

Department of Financial Regulation Data Modeling for February 1, 2022 (click HERE for all 71 slides).

Weekly Data Modeling presented by DFR Commissioner Michael Pieciak

Cases

• Cases in Vermont this week plummeted by more than 3,000—a decrease of 40%. In the last two weeks, cases have fallen 56%. Forecasts predict these trends will continue, following similar patterns in states like New York and New Jersey where Omicron peaked earlier than in Vermont.
• Vermont COVID-19 cases are expected to continue to decline in the coming weeks, consistent with improving case trends in Vermont, the Northeast and the U.S.
• However, cases remain elevated with nearly 700 average new infections reported daily, and Vermont hospitals remain short-staffed with high inpatient counts.
• 37% of all Vermont COVID-19 cases were reported in January 2022.
• The not fully vaccinated case rate has decreased 42% in the last 7 days. The fully vaccinated rate has decreased 39% during the same period.
• 10% decrease in the new hospital admission 7-day average over the past week.
• 58% of hospitalizations are among the unvaccinated over the last 7 days.
• 56% of critical care stays among the unvaccinated over the last 7 days.
• Hospitalizations continue to be more common among older Vermonters.
• Those 18+ & not fully vaccinated were nearly 10x more likely to be hospitalized from COVID-19 over the last 6 weeks compared to those fully vaccinated & boosted.
• Vermont had the 2nd-fewest COVID-19 hospital admissions per capita over the last week (Maine).
• Over the last 7 days, cases have:
• ● Decreased 46% for ages 0 to 24
  ● Decreased 40% for ages 25 to 49
  ● Decreased 40% for ages 50 to 64
  ● Decreased 23% for ages 65+

Deaths

• January 2022 was tied for the second-deadliest month of the pandemic in Vermont with 62 fatalities. However, as Omicron became dominant and cases soared, the proportion of infections resulting in a fatality dropped to 0.15%—the lowest figure since Fall 2020 when no deaths were reported for three straight months.
• Declines in COVID-19 fatalities are expected to lag behind case improvements.
• The risk from COVID-19, however, is not equal: while the rate of death for those under 70 is less than 1% (and close to zero for younger age groups), the case fatality rate for the oldest Vermonters is over 7%.
• Vermont had the 5th-fewest COVID-19 deaths per capita over the last week.
• The number of fatal COVID-19 cases is considerably higher among older Vermonters.
• Those 18+ and not fully vaccinated were 10x more likely to die from COVID-19 over the last 6 weeks compared to those fully vaccinated & boosted.

Varying Risk

• Differences in vaccination status, age, and underlying conditions present a nuanced picture of risk for Vermonters. Across the US, the average weekly chance of a boosted person dying of COVID was about one in a million according to the most recent available CDC data (the chance an average American will die in a car crash is 2.4 per million), but older and unvaccinated Vermonters face increased risk from the virus.
• For the latter group, state data continues to show the risk of death is ten-fold that of boosted Vermonters.

Testing

​As for testing, the state will be relying more heavily on self reporting as rapid antigen tests become more prominent and more available.

While the first 350,000 tests were distributed in a program that began in January, all Vermont residents who have not successfully ordered one can request a rapid, at home test through the VDH when the state is able to distribute the next allotment of 150,000 tests: SayYesCovidHomeTest.org

Rapid antigen tests are now more widely available at local pharmacies and the cost should be reimbursed by your health insurance provider.

Federal COVID rapid tests are now available at COVIDtests.gov - Free at-home COVID-19 tests

Also, people should upgrade their masks to N95 or similar because Omicron is better able to get through a regular cloth mask. Dr Levine urged Vermonters to wear a double mask if an N95-type mask was not available.

As for the adult population, the state will begin to roll out free antigen test kits for the general public beginning Wednesday on the healthvermont.gov website starting at 10 am. The state has 250,000 kits (each kit has two tests and an individual should take both at least 24 hours apart).

The federal government will release similar kits in the coming weeks.

The state and federal kits are on a first-come basis.

Pharmacies also may have kits available, though that is more hit or miss. However, most insurance will cover the cost of kits (about $25) either upfront or reimbursed.

The state began distributing 500,000 at-home rapid antigen tests starting on January 12 at 10 am trough the healthvermont.gov website. The first allotment of 350,000 was allocated by the afternoon.

The State opened registration for COVID-19 booster shots for children 12 to 15 years old on Thursday, January 6, following approval by CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky.

This age group can receive their Pfizer booster as early as five months after their second Pfizer dose. Children ages 16 and 17 have already been eligible for a Pfizer booster but can now also get their booster shot as soon as five months after the second dose.

The new five month wait time for a booster shot also applies to anyone 18 and older who received the Pfizer vaccine. They can get a Pfizer or Moderna booster.

To make an appointment, parents and caregivers can go online effective immediately at healthvermont.gov/MyVaccine or by calling 855-722-7878.

• In addition to expanding booster eligibility to those under 12, the FDA also shortened the waiting time between the primary series of the Pfizer vaccine and the third shot (booster) from six months to five.
• The FDA also authorized a third primary-series dose for immunocompromised children over 5 years old.

In addition to being vaccinated and boosted, Vermonters should continue taking these common-sense precautions to protect against the spread of the virus in our communities.

• Stay home if you feel sick.
• Get tested if you have any symptoms – even if mild, or if you may be a close contact, or have taken part in activities that could put you at risk, such as large gatherings or travel.
• Wear a mask at indoor public settings and around anyone at higher risk of COVID-19.
• Gather with others safely, which means small group sizes and testing before holiday celebrations.

For more information:

• Vaccination and booster locations: healthvermont.gov/MyVaccine
• Protecting yourself: healthvermont.gov/preventCOVID19
• Testing for Covid-19: healthvermont.gov/covid-19/testing

Learn more about the Omicron variant from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/omicron-variant.html

See Case and Vaccine Dashboards Below