ISONE: Vermont sufficient electric as transpo and heating increase demand

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ISONE: Vermont sufficient electric as transpo and heating increase demand

Thu, 11/04/2021 - 5:32am -- tim
ISO New England issues 10-year regional power system plan. Reports on anticipated changes as the region transitions to a clean energy system.

Vermont Business Magazine The 2021 Regional System Plan (RSP21), the biennial report that lays the foundation for long-term power-system planning in New England, was approved by the ISO New England board of directors November 1. RSP21 looks at the expected changes to New England’s power system through 2030 from factors driving grid transformation, including economic decisions of market participants, environmental goals developed to combat climate change, changing patterns of electricity use, and resource adequacy needed to maintain required reliability criteria. This is also the case for Vermont. Vermont's pace of solar development is expected to fall behind all other states except New Hampshire.

“To assist the region as we move forward on the path to our decarbonized future, the ISO has been working to create the tools needed to manage the region’s clean energy transition successfully,” said Robert Ethier, ISO New England’s vice president of system planning. “The 2021 Regional System Plan provides a comprehensive overview of the direction and reliability needs of our future power system. It is one of the many tools that will help inform how we advance as a region.”

ISO New England manages the planning process and development of the regional system plan through the Planning Advisory Committee. This process is open and reflects the input and feedback from a diverse group of stakeholders.

RSP21 discusses several key issues affecting the regional power system:

·         Grid transformation: The complexity of power system operations and planning is expected to increase as more zero-carbon emitting resources become a part of region’s resource mix. ISO New England has developed state-of-the-art tools that have improved demand forecasting of behind-the-meter solar, electric vehicles, and heat pumps. New analytic and system modeling techniques continue to be developed to provide a more robust means to evaluate the state of the system.

·         Transmission development: As New England decarbonizes not only its power system, but other sectors of its economy, transmission improvements and additions will be needed to maintain the reliability of the regional grid and support state policies to access remotely-located sources of clean energy. These new ‘inverter-based’ technologies (e.g., wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), batteries) pose physical challenges; therefore, a series of analyses and technology improvements are underway to enhance the reliable, economical, and environmental performance of the system.

·         Energy adequacy and power system reliability: With changes to New England’s resource mix anticipated in the coming years and the uncertainty presented by extreme weather events, the ISO is examining how to meet grid reliability during and after this changeover. While the development of renewable resources, energy efficiency (EE), battery storage, imports, and continued investment in natural gas efficiency measures will alleviate reliability risks, many of these resources are, at times, energy-constrained, so changes to the transmission and distribution systems and the development of new market products and procedures are being explored to ensure power system reliability. Another top priority for ISO New England is to examine system reliability beyond the required 10-year planning horizon. 

  • Extreme weather events: The ISO has initiated a project to update the modeling of low-probability, high-impact events, including those caused by severe weather. This modeling tool will allow the industry, policy makers, regulators, and the ISO to explore varying degrees of power system risk, assess the likelihood of these risks occurring, and determine whether and how to mitigate them.

RSP21 Highlights

Long-term load forecast—The 10-year forecast of demand shows total net annual use of electric energy increasing 1.1% per year under typical weather conditions. This net amount accounts for the decrease in grid electricity use from solar PV and EE programs, and an increase in usage from the electrification of home heating and transportation. After a period of decreased winter usage, winter peak electricity use is expected to see a net increase 0.8% per year because of heating and transportation electrification initiatives.

Strategic electrification—The ISO now forecasts the future impact of the New England states’ initiatives to meet greenhouse gas reduction goals through electrification of transportation and heating. These impacts are expected to add 6,080 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of annual energy consumption, 675 megawatts (MW) of peak summer demand, and 2,422 MW of peak winter demand by 2030. Beyond the current 10-year planning horizon, the increased electrification needed will likely cause the region to become a winter-peaking system.

Capacity resources—In the short term, sufficient resources are projected for New England to meet the resource adequacy planning criterion, assuming no new major resource retirements and the successful completion and operation of all proposed new resources that have cleared the Forward Capacity Market (FCM), although negative operable capacity margins could materialize during severe weather conditions beginning in 2024. To mitigate any shortfalls in the capacity margin, the ISO would rely on operating procedures to balance supply and demand and keep the power system reliable.

Resource development—The majority of projects listed in the ISO New England interconnection queue seeking to connect to the regional high-voltage power system are primarily renewable resources, particularly offshore wind, large-scale battery storage, and small-scale solar PV, coupled with battery storage. Information on the types of projects is available at https://www.iso-ne.com/about/key-stats/resource-mix.

Transmission upgrades—From 2002 through June 2021, 834 transmission project components to address reliability needs were put into service in the six New England states, representing an investment of $11.7 billion in new infrastructure. Another $1.1 billion is planned. In 2020, the ISO completed its first use of the competitive solution process to develop needed transmission in greater Boston as required in the Federal Regulatory Energy Commission’s (FERC) Order 1000.

Studies focusing on New England’s clean and reliable energy future—The ISO, the New England states, and regional stakeholders have been exploring potential reliability and wholesale market issues that may arise in the coming years, beyond the normal 10-year planning horizon, as the electric industry experiences significant change driven by state energy and environmental decarbonization policies. Studies include the Future Grid Reliability Study (FGRS), Transmission Planning for the Clean Energy Transition Pilot Study (TPCET), Pathways to the Future Grid, and the New England states’ 2050 Transmission Study, to support the New England states’ Vision Statement.

Interregional planning—The ISO participates in national and interregional planning activities, including development of coordinated system plans with other regions. Close coordination continues with the New York ISO and PJM, the system operator for all or parts of 13 states and the District of Columbia.

Vermont

Vermont continues to pursue a clean energy and carbon emissions reduction policy agenda. In 2020, the legislature made the state’s previously non-binding, economy-wide GHG reduction goals mandatory and more stringent. The new law requires reductions in statewide emissions in three stages: by 2025, at least 26% below 2005 emissions; by 2030, at least 40% below 1990 emissions; and by 2050, at least 80% below 1990 emissions.

The state’s budget allocated significant funding for climate change mitigation on matters such as weatherization, the state’s Clean Energy Development Fund, and Climate Action Plan implementation. The state’s transportation bill appropriated more than $5 million for decarbonization efforts, including EV infrastructure and incentives for low-emissions vehicles and e-bikes. It also directs the electric distribution utilities to design electric vehicle charging rates for both public and private locations no later than June 30, 2024.

Every three years, VELCO publishes a three-year update of its 20-year Vermont Long-Range Transmission Plan. The plan identifies reliability concerns and the transmission alternatives to address those concerns. VELCO filed its final plan on July 1, 2021. Highlights from the 2021 plan include:

  • Peak demand is forecast to grow due to the electrification of heating and transportation
  • The transmission system has sufficient capacity to serve expected future demand for the first 10 years of the 20-year planning horizon

Distributed Photovoltaic Generation Forecast

This section describes the outlook for growth in distribution-connected PV resources in New England. Distributed photovoltaics have grown substantially in New England since 2012, and have already significantly altered the region’s seasonal load profiles. As penetrations of non-dispatchable PV that is embedded in load increase, the need for resource ramping to serve the increasing fluctuations in net demand will also increase. More severe light-load conditions are also expected in the shoulder seasons.

PV Nameplate Capacity Forecast

Table 3‑5 lists the state-by-state forecast of annual and cumulative PV nameplate capacities (MWAC [megawatts of alternating current] ratings), after applying discount factors for availability, through the 10-year planning horizon. These projections include all PV in the FCM, PV that participates in the ISO’s wholesale energy markets, and that reduces the load the ISO observes. To ensure proper accounting, the ISO classifies the forecast into three different types of PV, each of which receives a different treatment in system planning studies:

  • FCM resources with capacity supply obligations (CSOs)
  • Energy-only resources (EORs), which are generation resources that participate in the wholesale energy markets and receive energy market revenues but choose to not participate in the FCM.
  • BTM PV, which do not participate in wholesale markets

Table 3‑5
New England States’ Annual and Cumulative Total PV Nameplate Capacity Forecast, 2021 to 2030 (MWAC)

Year

Annual Sum of States

Annual Total Nameplate Capacity (MWAC)

CT

MA

ME

NH

RI

VT

Through 2020

3,995.9

682.3

2,502.3

68.8

125.3

223.8

393.5

2021

794.1

108.1

454.3

138.8

19.1

49.1

24.7

2022

849.1

131.6

430.4

199.0

18.1

46.5

23.4

2023

844.9

147.6

406.5

209.2

17.1

42.4

22.1

2024

781.0

91.1

406.5

201.7

17.1

42.4

22.1

2025

677.0

91.1

406.5

97.8

17.1

42.4

22.1

2026

544.1

91.1

358.7

12.8

17.1

42.4

22.1

2027

417.5

91.1

232.1

12.8

17.1

42.4

22.1

2028

402.6

83.2

225.1

12.8

17.1

42.4

22.1

2029

367.8

55.4

218.0

12.8

17.1

42.4

22.1

2030

358.9

53.6

211.0

12.8

17.1

42.4

22.1

Total

10,032.9

1,626.0

5,851.5

979.1

299.4

658.5

618.4

                     

A full explanation of the methodology used for the PV forecast is available in the file Final 2021 PV Forecast (April 29, 2021). Because PV facilities constitute the vast majority of distributed generation (DG) growth throughout New England over the past decade, the ISO’s analysis of DG and the DG forecast focuses exclusively on the growth of photovoltaics. However, the ISO continues to monitor the growth of non-PV DG, including BTM energy-storage facilities, to determine whether separate forecasts of these resources may eventually be warranted.

Ramping up and ramping down refer to generators’ increasing or decreasing output to meet changing load levels, such as in the early morning, which typically involves ramping up, and in the late evening, which typically involves ramping down.

The forecast reflects distributed generation PV, which includes projects typically 5 MW or less in nameplate capacity; therefore, the forecast does not include policy drivers for larger-scale projects, which are generally accounted for as part of ISO’s interconnection process and participate in wholesale markets. 

Settlement-only resources and non-FCM generators, as defined in Operating Procedure No. 14 (OP-14), Technical Requirements for Generators, Demand-Response Resources, Asset-Related Demands, and Alternative Technology Regulation Resources, are included in this market type.

The Role of Planning in New England

The Regional System Plan is developed every other year to meet requirements established by FERC, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, and the Northeast Power Coordinating Council, and is produced in accordance with the requirements in Attachment K of the ISO’s Open Access Transmission Tariff. Each RSP is a snapshot of the power system and relevant studies and forecasts at a point in time, and the results are updated as needed. The 2021 Regional System Plan is available on ISO New England’s website.

cid:image001.jpg@01D7B06C.5349C8E0                                                                                            

Created in 1997, ISO New England is the independent, not-for-profit corporation responsible for the reliable operation of
New England's electric power generation and transmission system, overseeing and ensuring the fair administration of the region's wholesale electricity markets, and managing comprehensive regional electric power planning.

Source: Holyoke, MA—November 3, 2021—ISONE