Vermont unemployment rate up one-tenth to 3.1 percent

by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine The Vermont unemployment rate increased one-tenth in December 2020 to 3.1 percent, as released today by the Vermont Department of Labor. Vermont is tied for third lowest rate in the US with Iowa and just behind Nebraska and South Dakota (3.0 percent). New Hampshire is eighth at 4.0 percent.

However, the rates are calculated based on total labor market, which has fallen precipitously across the nation. In Vermont, there are now over 19,000 fewer people in the labor force and over 21,000 fewer working. The Vermont November rate has been adjusted one-tenth lower since initially reported.

The comparable United States rate in December was 6.7 percent, which was unchanged from the revised November estimate. The December 2019 US rate was 3.5 percent. The December 2019 rate in Vermont was 2.4 percent, the lowest in the nation.

“The low level of unemployment does not capture the full impact of the pandemic," said Michael Harrington, Department of Labor Commissioner. "Not captured in the unemployment rate is the contraction in the labor force that has occurred as a result of COVID-19. Over the last year, nearly 20,000 Vermonters have exited the labor force, either temporarily or permanently. As the spread of the virus declines and the rate of vaccinations increase, it is expected that many, if not all, of these individuals will return to the labor force. Between now and then, this is a great time for future job seekers to leverage online training to augment their professional or technical skills. Working with the Department’s Workforce Development Division is a great way to learn about training, as well as employment opportunities being recruited for right now.”

State of Vermont Overview

The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for December show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 826 from the prior month’s revised estimate. The number of employed persons decreased by 1,371 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 545.

The changes to the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.

The December unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 1.9 percent in White River Junction to 4.0 percent in Woodstock and Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted).

For comparison, the December unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 2.8 percent, which was unchanged from the revised unadjusted November level and an increase of seven-tenths of one percentage point from a year ago.

Analysis of Job Changes by Industry

Not-Seasonally-Adjusted

The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for December show an increase of 2,500 jobs when compared to the revised November numbers. There was a decrease of 500 jobs between the preliminary and the revised November estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The broader economic picture can be seen by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ December data, Total Private industries have decreased by 26,600 jobs (-10.1%) and Government (including public education) employment has decreased by 2,100 jobs (-3.6%) in the past year.

Seasonally-Adjusted

The seasonally-adjusted data for December reports a decrease of 1,100 jobs from the revised November data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised November numbers which experienced a decrease of 500 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in December varied at the industry level. Those with a notable increase include: Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities (+500 jobs or +6.0%), Construction (+400 jobs or +3.7%), and Private Educational Services (+300 jobs or +2.6%). Industries with a notable decrease include: Accommodation & Food Services (-1,800 jobs or -9.0%), Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (-300 jobs or -6.8%), and Other Services (-600 jobs or -6.1%).

Source: VDOL. LAUS. 26 January 2021