Leonine: Politics meets COVID, vaccines, Act 250 and surprising tax revenues

On Tuesday, the five member Emergency Board, made up of the governor and the four legislative “money committee” chairs, met and approved an updated consensus revenue forecast for the state’s major funds. The new forecast is based on the joint recommendation of the administration’s economist, Jeff Carr, and the legislature’s economist, Tom Kavet. Carr and Kavet proposed the revenue estimates for the current fiscal year (FY21) and next fiscal year (FY22) for the General Fund, Transportation Fund and Education Fund be “radically upgraded” from the August 2020 forecast. For example, for FY22 alone, the E-Board approved a $150.5 million upgrade in the General Fund, a $9.4 upgrade in the Transportation Fund and a $70.2 million upgrade in the Education Fund. Carr and Kavet attributed much of this new revenue to the $7 billion in federal stimulus Vermont has already received and the $3 billion more likely to come. Both economists warned that Vermont’s economy is being driven by “the epidemiological path of the pandemic and the colossal federal fiscal and monetary policy responses to it,” and there is a lot of uncertainty about how Vermont’s economy will fare when it has to “fend for itself” once the federal stimulus spigot is shut off. Here is a copy of Kavet’s full analysis.

This week Governor Scott signed H.48, An act relating to authorizing alternative procedures for 2021 annual municipal meetings in response to COVID-19. H.48 authorizes municipalities to move the dates of their municipal meetings and send Australian ballots to all registered voters for items to be voted on during municipal meetings, among other things. The governor urged municipalities take advantage of the flexibility the law provides to conduct local elections by mail noting it will keep people safe, “ensuring Vermonters don’t need to choose between their right to vote and risking attending a town meeting gathering during a pandemic.”

Under existing statute either chamber of the Legislature can block the implementation of the Executive Order that reorganizes Executive Branch agencies by passing a resolution disapproving it (although there is some question as to whether the ability of just one chamber to block an Executive Order conforms to the Vermont constitution). On Thursday the Senate Natural Resources and Energy Committee and the House Natural Resources, Fish and Wildlife committees met jointly and took testimony from administration officials, current District Commissioners and interested citizens concerning the Governor’s plan. There was a fair amount of opposition to the reorganization from some of the witnesses, who feel that the District Environmental Commissions are more accessible and user friendly than a single reconfigured Natural Resources Board is likely to be. No decisions were made by either committee. Instead, they will continue to take testimony and reach a decision about whether to intervene at a later date.