Unemployment rate holds at 2.4 percent in January

Vermont Business Magazine Today, the Vermont Department of Labor announced the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for January was 2.4 percent. According to household data, this reflects no change from the revised December rate. The preliminary data released in January showed a labor force participation rate of 65.6 percent which is the lowest statewide level since September 1977. All three major metrics were slightly worse than last month, as the labor force and number of employed were down and the number of unemployed increased.

Vermont, which has had the lowest rate in the nation, is now tied for second with South Carolina. North Dakota is number one at 2.3 percent. Alaska is highest at 6.0 percent. The comparable United States rate in January was 3.6 percent, up 0.1 of a percentage point from the revised December estimate.

“In addition to releasing the January 2020 data, it is important to note all the historical data from 2019 has been re-estimated through an annual process which folds in new information not available at the time of the original monthly estimate. The updated 2019 numbers show job count numbers are at historic highs while unemployment is at historic lows. In Vermont, this combination creates tight labor market conditions that restrict the ability of Vermont companies to fill jobs. The U.S. economy is approaching an unprecedented 11th year of economic expansion; here in Vermont, we are prioritizing recruitment and retention to support our need to grow jobs and expand our workforce,” said Michael Harrington, Acting Labor Commissioner.

“As our country and the world grapple with the challenge of COVID-19, it is likely that our state will experience a disruption in our economy. Specifically, employers and employees could feel the effects of a temporary slowdown in both sales and wages. We are committed to ensuring impacted employees have access to benefits and that employers find relief wherever possible.

For more information about COVID-19 as it relates to unemployment insurance, employer support services, and work rules, please visit labor.vermont.gov.”

The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for January show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 195 from the prior month’s revised estimate. The number of employed persons decreased by 241 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 46.

The January unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 2.0 percent in Woodstock to 6.4 percent in Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted). For comparison, the January unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 3.0 percent, which was an increase of nine-tenths of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted December level and an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from a year ago.

The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for January show a decrease of 9,400 jobs when compared to the revised December numbers. There was an increase of 200 jobs between the preliminary and the revised December estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The monthly decrease seen in the January numbers was primarily attributable to seasonal activity related to education and construction. The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ January data, Total Private industries have decreased by 2,200 jobs (-0.9 percent) and Government (including public education) employment has increased by 1,100 jobs (2.0 percent) in the past year.

The seasonally-adjusted data for January reports a decrease of 1,200 jobs from the revised December data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised December numbers which experienced a decrease of 400 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in January varied at the sub-sector level. Those with a notable increase include Private Education Services (+700 jobs or +5.3%), and Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities (+200 jobs or +2.4%). Sectors with a notable decrease include: Administration and Waste Services (-500 jobs or -3.8%), State Government (-700 jobs or -3.6%), and Financial Activities (-400 jobs or -3.3%).

The Unemployment and Jobs Report for February is scheduled to be released on Friday, March 27, 2020.

NOTE: Employment (nonfarm payroll) - A count of all persons who worked full- or part-time or received pay from a nonagricultural employer for any part of the pay period which included the 12th of the month. Because this count comes from a survey of employers, persons who work for two different companies would be counted twice. Therefore, nonfarm payroll employment is really a count of the number of jobs, rather than the number of persons employed. Persons may receive pay from a job if they are temporarily absent due to illness, bad weather, vacation, or labor-management dispute. This count is based on where the jobs are located, regardless of where the workers reside, and is therefore sometimes referred to as employment "by place of work." Nonfarm payroll employment data are collected and compiled based on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, conducted by the Vermont Department of Labor. This count was formerly referred to as nonagricultural wage and salary employment.

Source: Vermont DOL 3.16.2020