Vermont Business Magazine Today, the Vermont Department of Labor reported that the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for July was 8.3 percent. This reflects a decrease of one and two-tenths percentage points from the prior month’s revised estimate of 9.5 percent. The comparable United States rate in July was 10.2 percent, a decrease of nine-tenths percentage points from the revised June estimate.
The Vermont unemployment rate is still higher than the worst of the Great Recession (The Vermont peaked at 6.9 percent; the US rate peaked at 10.6 percent in January 2010). The official Vermont March unemployment rate was 3.1 percent, but the April rate was 15.6 percent, the highest on record. The US April rate was 14.7 percent, the highest rate since its was first calculated in 1948 and the highest unofficially since the Great Depression of about 25 percent.
“The July data reflects continued improvements in the number of unemployed and the number of filled jobs in Vermont,” said Labor Commissioner Michael Harrington. “The number of unemployed persons is a little more than half of its April peak, but the economic impacts of COVID-19 are still readily apparent. The Department continues to prioritize the administration of unemployment insurance benefits and the connecting of job seekers with hiring employers as we, the state, focuses on both the response and recovery from this global pandemic. Within the Department’s Workforce Development Division, virtually services and online job fairs are being offered to highlight employment opportunities across the state, and employers are actively posting job openings on Vermont JobLink. For more information, employers and individuals are encouraged to visit www.labor.vermont.gov/jobs.”
The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for July show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 2,853 from the prior month’s revised estimate. The number of employed persons increased by 1,509 and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 4,362. The changes to the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.
The July unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 6.2 percent in White River Junction to 12.5 percent in Woodstock (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted). For comparison, the July unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 8.2 percent, which was a decrease of one and three-tenths percentage points from the revised unadjusted June level and an increase of five and eight-tenths percentage points from a year ago.
Not-Seasonally-Adjusted
The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for July show an increase of 2,600 jobs when compared to the revised June numbers. There was a decrease of 1,000 jobs between the preliminary and the revised June estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The broader economic picture can be seen by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ July data, Total Private industries have decreased by 36,200 jobs (-13.8 percent) and Government (including public education) employment has decreased by 600 jobs (-1.2 percent) in the past year.
Seasonally-Adjusted
The seasonally-adjusted data for July reports an increase of 4,800 jobs from the revised June data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised June numbers which experienced a decrease of 900 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in July varied at the sector level. Those with a notable increase include: Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation (+300 jobs or +8.1%), Local Government (+1,900 jobs or +6.9%), and Information (+200 jobs or +5.1%). Sectors with a notable decrease include: Private Educational Services (-500 jobs or -3.7%) and Construction (-400 jobs or -3.7%).
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The Unemployment and Jobs Report for August is scheduled to be released on Friday, September 18, 2020 at 10:00 a.m.