Vermont’s unemployment rate holds at historic 2.1 percent

Vermont Business Magazine The Vermont unemployment rate remained unchanged at its historic low of 2.1 percent. As of last month’s data (June 2019), the unemployment rates for Vermont and the Burlington-South Burlington NECTA were the lowest in the country relative to other states and metropolitan areas, respectively. The comparable United States rate in July was 3.7 percent, which was unchanged from the revised June estimate.

The major metrics also showed very little movement, with the Labor Force and number of employed up very slightly and number of jobless down, but also by a very small amount.

“Though our unemployment rate continues to be low, there are a number of Vermont workers looking for more hours or higher paying jobs. To get that next job, some of these individuals may need to acquire a new skill or become licensed in a specialized field. Learning this summer about all the training and educational programs beginning this fall is a first step towards better employment opportunities. There are wonderful providers across the state partnering with the Department to offer Registered Apprenticeships and short courses at convenient times which tie directly to employer needs in Vermont. Visit any one of the Department’s Career Resource Centers spread across the state to learn which program or training may be best for you… and bring a friend,” said Labor Commissioner Lindsay Kurrle.

The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for July show the Vermont civilian labor force increased by 48 from the prior month’s revised estimate. The number of employed persons increased by 27 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 21. None of the changes were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.

The July unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 1.7 percent in White River Junction to 3.4 percent in Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted). For comparison, the July unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 2.2 percent which was unchanged from the revised unadjusted June level and a decrease of four-tenths of one percentage point from a year ago.

Not-Seasonally-Adjusted

The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for July show a decrease of 4,400 jobs when compared to the revised June numbers. There was an increase of 600 jobs between the preliminary and the revised June estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The monthly decrease seen in the July numbers was primarily attributable to seasonal activity related to Local Government Education. The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ July data, Total Private industries have increased by 3,200 jobs (1.2 percent) and Government (including public education) employment has decreased by 2,400 jobs (-4.7 percent) in the past year.

Seasonally-Adjusted

The seasonally-adjusted data for July reports an increase of 200 jobs from the revised June data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised June numbers which experienced a decrease of 100 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in July varied at the sub-sector level. Those with a notable increase include: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing (+100 jobs or +3.3%), Accommodation & Food Services (+900 jobs or +2.6%), and Wholesale Trade (+200 jobs or +2.2%). Sectors with a notable decrease include: Durable Goods Manufacturing (-300 jobs or -1.5%), State Government (-200 jobs or -1.0%), and Other Services (-100 jobs or -1.0%).

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The Unemployment and Jobs Report for August is scheduled to be released on Friday, September 20, 2019 at 10:00 a.m.

Source: Vermont Department of Labor