Business owners more optimistic for US economy than for Vermont's

Vermont Business MagazineBusiness owners are taking an increasingly sour view of the Vermont economy, accordingto a new survey.Over 130 Vermont businesses completed the latest semi-annual economic survey in January regarding the outlook of Vermont’s small- to medium-sized businesses;71% of those business owners who responded have fewer than 25 employees. The survey, presented by Davis and Hodgdon Associates CPAs and the Vermont Chamber of Commerce, revealed that while business owners share an increased level of optimism about the USeconomy, they do not have the same enthusiasm for Vermont’s economy.

Finding qualified workers continues to be an ongoing problem, even more sothan health insurance costs. And there remains a strong desire to see changes made to Vermont’s tax laws and overall business climate. Meanwhile, changes to the minimum wage was lower down on the list of issues.

  • 27% of businessesexclusive to Vermontbelieve the state’s economy is improving (compared to 34% previously); 27% feel it is in decline (compared to 14% in January) and 44% indicate there is no change (compared to 37% previously).
  • For businesseswith out-of-state interests, 25% believe the state’s economy is improving (19% previously); 33% of businesses believe the state’s economy is in decline (compared to 21% previously) and 32% see no change (46% previously).

Responses to the question of the Vermont economy were similar for all counties throughout the state, including Chittenden county businesses.

  • 25% of Chittenden county businesses describe Vermont’s economy as improving;23% of respondents in all other Vermont county businesses shared this level of optimism.
  • 32% of Chittenden county businesses and 34% of all other counties see Vermont’s economy in decline. In July, only 17% of those in Chittenden County and 19% of all other counties perceived the Vermont’s economy to be in decline.
  • 37% of Chittenden county businesses believe that there has been no change in the economy versus 34% of all other county businesses.

When asked to describe the current state of the U.S. economy, 65% feel it is improving (42% in July), 10% believe it is declining (versus 18% in July), and 19% see no change at all (versus 32% in July).

Respondents’ expectations for business growth is similar to those from the July survey, although they appear slightly more optimistic about sales increases. 68% expect sales to increase (59% in July), 39% intend to increase capital spending (compared to 46% previously), and 46% look to increase the size of their staff (versus 38% in July).

Respondents identified the top three key issues facing their business as finding qualified employees (59%), health insurance costs (57%), taxes (Federal and State tax laws: 47% and Property tax: 30%). These are the same key issues that business owners have identified in the previous six semi-annual surveys, however it is noteworthy that they are more concerned about Property tax (education funding) (30%) and Vermont tax laws (28%) than with Federal tax laws (19%).

When asked to identify one business economic issue they want to see addressed by the state legislature this year, business owners continue to express their concerns about high taxes and the excessive cost of doing business in Vermont. Many want to see legislators work to improve the current perception of Vermont as an unfriendly business environment through de-regulation and tax reform. Health insurance is also a common issue that they would like to see addressed this year.

“The good news is that many businesses are looking to expand, however their number one issue remains finding qualified employees,” said John Davis, managing partner of Davis & Hodgdon Associates. “There’s clearly a need to figure out how to attract and retain a qualified workforce despite the state’s high cost of living.”

Overall Survey Results:

Davis & Hodgdon Associates Semi-Annual Economic Survey

Please check the top three issues facing your business in 2018:
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Overtime compensation changes
1 1%
Minimum wage changes (for those with minimum wage employees)
17 12.5%
Federal Taxes
25 18.5%
Vermont Taxes
38 28.1%
Health insurance costs
77 57.0%
Finding qualified employees
80 59.2%
Sources of financing
15 11.1%
Property tax (education funding)
41 30.3%
Internet security
29 21.4%
Succession planning
24 17.7%
Housing
7 5.1%
Other
22 16.2%
Totals 135 100%
How would you describe the current state of Vermont's economy?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Improving
35 25.9%
No change
49 36.2%
Declining
41 30.3%
Unsure/Do not know
10 7.4%
No Responses
0 0.0%
Totals 135 100%
How would you describe the current state of the U.S. economy?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Improving
88 65.1%
No change
26 19.2%
Declining
13 9.6%
Unsure/Do not know
7 5.1%
No Responses
1 1%
Totals 135 100%
What is the one key business economic issue that you would like to see addressed bythe state legislature?
Number of
Responses
111
How do you expect your company's sales to change in the next six months?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Increase by less than 10%
60 44.4%
Increase by 10-30%
25 18.5%
Increase by 30+%
7 5.1%
Decrease by less than 10%
7 5.1%
Decrease by 10-30%
6 4.4%
Decrease by 30+%
2 1.4%
No change
27 20.0%
No Responses
1 1%
Totals 135 100%
How do you expect your company's capital spending to change in the next six months?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Increase by less than 10%
33 24.4%
Increase by 10-30%
13 9.6%
Increase by 30+%
6 4.4%
Decrease by less than 10%
14 10.3%
Decrease by 10-30%
8 5.9%
Decrease by 30+%
3 2.2%
No change
56 41.4%
No Responses
2 1.4%
Totals 135 100%
How do you expect your company's employment to change in the next six months?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Increase staffing by 1-3 people
46 34.0%
Increase staffing by 3+ people
16 11.8%
Decrease staffing by 1-3 people
9 6.6%
Decrease staffing by 3+ people
1 1%
No change
63 46.6%
No Responses
0 0.0%
Totals 135 100%
Which statements below reflect your mindset about doing business in Vermont over the last 6 months.
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
I love doing business in Vermont.
26 19.2%
While doing business in Vermont has it's challenges, I'm committed to staying here because my customers/ clients/ products/ supply chain/ environment are here.
74 54.8%
I have thought about closing my business or moving it out of state
25 18.5%
Other
11 8.1%
Totals 135 100%
Has Vermont's overall tax burden caused you to consider relocation of your residence in the last 12 months?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Yes, plans were put in motion
19 14.0%
Yes, but not serious consideration
53 39.2%
No
59 43.7%
No Responses
4 2.9%
Totals 135 100%
Please indicate your business industry.
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Agriculture
6 4.4%
Artisan
0 0.0%
Construction
9 6.6%
Educational Services
1 1%
Finance & Insurance
13 9.6%
Health Care & Social Assistance
8 5.9%
Hotel & Restaurant
13 9.6%
Information
8 5.9%
Manufacturing
14 10.3%
Professional, Technical
27 20.0%
Retail trade
10 7.4%
Transportation & Warehousing
1 1%
Utilities
0 0.0%
Wholesale Trade
1 1%
Other
24 17.7%
No Responses
0 0.0%
Totals 135 100%
County of Headquarters:
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Addison
24 17.7%
Bennington
7 5.1%
Caledonia
1 1%
Chittenden
41 30.3%
Essex
0 0.0%
Franklin
2 1.4%
Grand Isle
1 1%
Lamoille
1 1%
Orange
2 1.4%
Orleans
1 1%
Rutland
28 20.7%
Washington
3 2.2%
Windham
10 7.4%
Windsor
14 10.3%
No Responses
0 0.0%
Totals 135 100%
Please indicate the scope of your marketplace.
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Exclusive to Vermont
44 32.5%
Multi-state
48 35.5%
National
19 14.0%
International
23 17.0%
No Responses
1 1%
Totals 135 100%
If the scope of your marketplace is at the multi-state, national, and/or international level, please indicate the percentage of your business done outside of Vermont.
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Less than 25%
43 31.8%
25-50%
17 12.5%
50-75%
12 8.8%
75+%
24 17.7%
No Responses
39 28.8%
Totals 135 100%
Please identify your total annual revenue in fiscal year 2017.
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
$0 - $250k
25 18.5%
$251k - $1M
36 26.6%
$1.1M - $3M
34 25.1%
$3M+
37 27.4%
No Responses
3 2.2%
Totals 135 100%
Please indicate your business' total number of employees including self.
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
1 - 10
67 49.6%
11 - 25
30 22.2%
26 - 50
10 7.4%
51 - 75
6 4.4%
75+
20 14.8%
No Responses
2 1.4%
Totals 135 100%
Please enter the information indicated below if you would like additional information including results. (optional)
Answer Number of
Responses
First Name 56
Last Name 56
Company Name 55
Email Address 55
Would you be willing to discuss your survey answers?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Yes
54 40.0%
No
58 42.9%
No Responses
23 17.0%
Totals 135 100%

About the Survey

The non-scientific survey, customized by Davis & Hodgdon to evaluate small- to medium-sized businesses, was completed by 136 businesses located throughout the state. Full results below:

January 2018 survey results:http://survey.constantcontact.com/survey/a07eewxzo4pjawss057/results

July 2017 survey results:http://survey.constantcontact.com/survey/a07ee6a5mrhj2q77j0i/results

About Davis & Hodgdon

Davis & Hodgdon Associates CPAs is a full-service public accounting firm with locations in Williston and Rutland Vermont. The firm is a member of several diverse regional and statewide business organizations and serves its clients by providing progressive, proactive services through expert staff, high-end technology, and unparalleled efficiency.

About the Vermont Chamber of Commerce

The Vermont Chamber of Commerce is the largest statewide, private, not-for-profit business organization. The Vermont Chamber mission is to create an economic climate conducive to business growth and the preservation of the Vermont quality of life.

Source:WILLISTON, Vt., February 19, 2018–Davis & Hodgdon Associates CPAs