By Timothy McQuiston Vermont Business Magazine New England has reduced its consumption of electricity dramatically since 2006 as well as its production of dangerous gases, according to ISO New England. The region also relies much more heavily on natural gas for generation than it did then. Thousands of megawatts of generation will go off-line in the coming years. New wind power will have a profound effect on the grid, while energy efficiency and storage will become official data points in the wholesale market. New England as a region has the highest electric rates in the nation.
ISO New England has published its 2018 Regional Electricity Outlook (REO), an annual report looking at the trends and challenges affecting New England’s power system, as well as the innovative solutions the ISO is pursuing to ensure reliable electricity for the region’s homes and businesses—today and into the future. For instance energy conservation will be applied into the generation model in June, as will electric storage, by the end of this year.
Vermont (14.62 cents per kilowatt hour) is the only state in New England without retail competition for electricity. Vermont has the second lowest electric rates in New England, behind Maine (12.63/KWH). All six New England (16.24/KWH) states are in the top 10 highest in the nation, with Connecticut (17.71/KWH) the highest among them, with Hawaii (27.49/KWH) and Alaska (19.50/KWH) the highest in the US (10.38/KWH).
Despite the rates, New Englanders, with the notable exception of Connecticut (number 3 in US), have average electric bills compared to the rest of the nation. This is attributed to lower air conditioning use and more conservation. Vermont ranks low, at 33rd in the US with an average electric bill of $116 per month. South Carolina is highest at $173 per month.
ISO New England Inc is the operator of the region’s bulk power system and wholesale electricity markets.
In the report ISO states:
New England’s competitive wholesale electricity markets and the New England states’ clean-energy initiatives are facilitating a dramatic shift to cleaner power sources. Simultaneously, state investments in and consumer adoption of energy-efficiency measures are driving down electricity use, and distributed generation is reducing demand from the grid. ISO New England’s innovative efforts are keeping the regional power system a step ahead of this transformation.
The report explores how:
· Competitive wholesale markets, investment in transmission, and state clean-energy policies over the past two decades have transformed the region’s power system, resulting in enhanced reliability, cost-effective pricing, and reduced emissions
· The ISO is working to keep New England on the cutting edge as the region’s electricity industry rapidly evolves towards a future of renewable and natural gas resources
· Long-term reliability depends on finding ways to harmonize the competitive wholesale electricity markets with the New England states’ initiatives to promote clean energy
· Factors affecting the ability of the region’s power plants to access fuel during winter are leading to reliability, economic, and environmental consequences
· Industry representatives, state officials, and policymakers face tough choices for maintaining a reliable, efficient power system as the region transitions to a clean-energy economy
· The ISO is protecting against cyber threats that could affect the operation of the power system or wholesale electricity marketplace
Demand Is Trending Downward over the Next Decade, but May Trend Upward in the Long Term
- 14.8 million people in 7.2 million households and businesses rely on New England’s power system.
- Electricity consumers used over 121,000 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of electricity from the grid in 2017, down from a record high of 136,355 GWh in 2005.
- Weather drives consumer demand. During 2017’s cooler summer, peak demand (the highest amount of electricity used in a single hour) hit only 23,968 megawatts (MW), in contrast to the all-time peak demand of 28,130 MW in 2006.
- Over 130,000 solar power installations span the six New England states, totaling about 2,400 MW (nameplate). Almost all are connected to local distribution utilities or “behind the meter” (BTM) directly at retail customer sites. The ISO doesn’t direct the amount of electricity these resources produce; we see their impact as a reduction in demand on the grid.
- About 2,700 MW of active demand response and energy efficiency (EE) also reduce demand.
- In the long term, grid demand could increase if the transportation and heating sectors are electrified as part of the New England states’ decarbonization efforts.
Supply Is Trending Cleaner
- New England has about 350 dispatchable generators, able to supply roughly 29,000 MW of electric power for summer 2018 and 31,000 MW for winter 2018/2019 (seasonal claimed capability).
- About 1,500 MW in summer and 1,000 MW in winter of imported electricity are also obligated to be available for New England’s power needs—mostly from Canadian hydropower.
- Most of the region’s generation is fueled by natural gas. Natural-gas-fired power plants represent about 45% of regional summer capacity, with an additional 11% listing natural gas as a secondary fuel.
- Oil, coal, and some nuclear power plants are retiring. Over 4,600 MW—an amount equal to about 16% of the region’s current generating capacity—will have retired from 2013 to 2021. More than 5,000 MW of additional coal- and oil-fired generation could be retiring in coming years because of age and infrequent operation.
- Between 2001 and 2016, generator air emissions in New England have decreased significantly. The shift away from oil and coal and toward lower-emitting natural gas has helped drive down nitrogen oxides (NOX) by 73%, sulfur dioxide (SO2) by 98%, and carbon dioxide (CO2) by 29%.
Decarbonization of Transportation and Heating Could Impact the Grid
A possible future trend that the ISO is watching out for is the increased adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) across the region and the greater use of electric heating. Both could increase in the future as part of the New England states’ efforts to achieve their decarbonization goals. Vehicle manufacturers are also moving aggressively to include EVs in their product portfolios by the early 2020s. If rapid EV or electric heating adoption emerges, the impacts may need to be considered in the ISO’s outlook for the region’s demand and energy. The ISO plans to start working with regional stakeholders to quantify the impact of the states’ decarbonization policies on long-term demand so that we can understand their potential eff ects on the power system and refl ect these in future Regional System Plans.
The 2018 REO, as well as webpages that highlight and expand on information and statistics in the report, are available at https://www.iso-ne.com/about/regional-electricity-outlook/.
ISO-NE
In the 1990s, ISO New England was created and worked with the New England Power Pool and the New England states to open the region’s transmission lines to wholesale transactions and launch the marketplace for the purchase and sale of wholesale electricity.
Shortly thereafter, a robust stakeholder process led to transmission-cost allocation that fostered the development of transmission infrastructure needed for reliability. By relieving severe transmission constraints, the region eliminated hundreds of millions of dollars of annual congestion costs and out-of market reliability contracts for generators in transmission-constrained areas. At virtually the same time, a large amount of new, mainly cleaner-burning natural gas generation was built through private investment, displacing older resources. These power plants helped New England meet record-breaking consumer demand through the mid-2000s, lowered carbon dioxide emissions, and drove wholesale prices to the lowest levels the region has ever seen. Last year, natural gas plants provided nearly half of regional electricity production.
In January 2018, ISO New England published the Operational Fuel-Security Analysis, which assessed whether possible future resource combinations would have enough fuel to ensure bulk power system reliability throughout an entire winter. Also available online are the New England Power Grid 2017–2018 Profile and New England Power Grid 2017–2018 State Profiles, a pair of documents summarizing key facts on demand growth, resource mix, transmission development, and wholesale electricity prices in the region and in individual states.
Source: Holyoke, MA—February 14, 2018—ISO New England. US Dept of Energy