by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for November was 2.7 percent. This reflects a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised October rate. However, the rate drop from October was predicated on a steep decline in the labor force, which is the denominator in these calculations. The number of unemployed fell, but so too did thetotal employed. Given the tight labor market, the ideal situation would show an increase in the labor force and an increase in the total number of workers. On a year-to-year basis, this has been the case, but the state has been losing ground on total labor the last few months.
Overall, Vermont’s unemployment rate was fifth lowest in the country for November. New Hampshire (2.5 percent) was third and Hawaii and Iowa were first at 2.4 percent. Alaska continued to have the highest rate at 6.3 percent.
Thenational rate in November was 3.7 percent, unchanged from the prior two months.As of the last month’s preliminary data, the Burlington-South Burlington Metropolitan NECTA was tied for the third lowest unemployment rate in the country for all metropolitan areas.
“The season of winter recreational activities got off to a strong start in November due to some early snow fall and low temperatures. The monthly jobs report reflects this activity in the employment estimates of leisure and hospitality related industries which were above historical trends. Also, in November, professional and technical services contributed a positive boost to the employment counts. The Department continues to hear from Vermont employers that they are hiring for seasonal and full-time positions. Please contact your local career resource center to learn about employers hiring in your area,” said Labor Commissioner Lindsay Kurrle.
The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for November show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 956 from the prior month’s revised estimate. The number of employed persons decreased by 699 and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 257.Changes in the unemployed and the unemployment rate were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.
The Novemberunemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 1.8 percent in White River Junction to 3.5 percent in Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted). For comparison, the November unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 2.3 percent which reflects an increase of one-halfof one percentage point from the revised unadjusted October level and a decrease of three-tenths of one percentage point from a year ago.
Not-Seasonally-Adjusted
The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for November show a decrease of 200 jobs when compared to the revised October numbers. There was an increase of 300 jobs between the preliminary and the revised October estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The monthly decrease seen in the November numbers was primarily attributable to seasonal activity related to construction. The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ November data, Total Private industries have decreased by 1,800 jobs (-0.7 percent) and Government (including public education) employment is unchanged in the past year.
Seasonally-Adjusted
The seasonally-adjusted data for November reports an increase of 500 jobs from the revised October data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised October numbers which experienced an increase of 500 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in November were mixed at the sector level. Those with a notable increase include: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (+200 jobs or +4.3%), Information (+100 jobs or +2.4%), and Professional & Technical Services (+300 jobs or +2.1%). Sectors with a notable decrease include: Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities (-200 jobs or -2.5%) and Private Educational Services (-200 jobs or -1.5%).
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