by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine Vermont lost workers in July and the labor force was also down for the first time in several months. The number of unemployed was up slightly, indicating that all three broad indicators were negative. Nonfarm employment, both adjusted and not adjusted for July, is below the level of 2017 and 2016. Still, the unemployment rate for July 2018 held at 2.8 percent, where it's been for several months. The Labor Force is the denominator in these equations, so if it's down, it can make the rate look relatively better than the actual employment numbers suggest. The Vermont Department of Labor released the data today.
The national rate in July was 3.9 percent, which is down a tenth after a brief increase last month. As of the prior month’s preliminary data, the Burlington-South Burlington Metropolitan NECTA was tied for the 12th lowest unemployment rate in the country for all metropolitan areas. Overall, Vermont’s unemployment rate was fifth lowest in the country for the same time period.
“The July numbers reflect the seasonal shift that occurs every summer in the Vermont economy when the bulk of educational institutions are on break or functioning at a diminished capacity. Meanwhile, summer employment opportunities, in industries like Construction, Leisure and Hospitality, are back in full-swing and are actively recruiting for new employees.
“The preliminary July numbers end the recent streak of six consecutive months of labor force growth, but the estimated declines in July were not significant enough to overshadow the noticeable positive over-the-year changes in the Vermont labor force and count of employed persons. Staff are continuing to analyze data to better understand the overall health of the Vermont economy.
“As always, the Vermont Department of Labor is ready to assist businesses and individuals with their employment related needs and concerns. Please contact us to learn about our services and resources available,” said Labor Commissioner Lindsay Kurrle.
The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for July show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 260 from the prior month’s revised estimate. The number of employed persons decreased by 329 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 69. None of these changes were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.
The July unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas (SEE TABLE BELOW) ranged from 2.2 percent in White River Junction to 4.3 percent in Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted). For comparison, the July unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 2.9 percent which reflects a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised unadjusted June level and a decrease of two-tenths of one percentage point from a year ago.
Not-Seasonally-Adjusted
The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for July show a decrease of 7,100 jobs when compared to the revised June numbers. There was a decrease of 100 jobs between the preliminary and the revised June estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The monthly decrease seen in the July numbers was primarily attributable to seasonal activity related to public education.
The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ July data, Total Private industries have decreased by 700 jobs (-0.3 percent) and Government (including public education) employment has decreased by 100 jobs (-0.2 percent) in the past year.
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Seasonally-Adjusted
The seasonally-adjusted data for July reports a decrease of 2,200 jobs from the revised June data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised June numbers which experienced a decrease of 200 jobs from the preliminary estimates.
The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in July were mostly down at the sub-sector level.
Those with a notable increase include: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (+100 jobs or +1.9%), Administrative & Waste Services (+100 jobs or +0.8%), and Durable Goods Manufacturing (+100 jobs or +0.5%).
Sub-sectors with a notable decrease include: Mining & Logging (-100 jobs or -12.5%), Information (-200 jobs or -4.5%), and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing (-100 jobs or -3.1%).
NOTE: Employment (nonfarm payroll)- A count of all persons who worked full- or part-time or received pay from a nonagricultural employer for any part of the pay period which included the 12th of the month. Because this count comes from a survey of employers, persons who work for two different companies would be counted twice. Therefore, nonfarm payroll employment is really a count of the number of jobs, rather than the number of persons employed. Persons may receive pay from a job if they are temporarily absent due to illness, bad weather, vacation, or labor-management dispute. This count is based on where the jobs are located, regardless of where the workers reside, and is therefore sometimes referred to as employment "by place of work." Nonfarm payroll employment data are collected and compiled based on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, conducted by the Vermont Department of Labor. This count was formerly referred to as nonagricultural wage and salary employment.
Source: Vermont DOL 8.17.2018