by Mike Smith GovernorPhil Scott must be banking on a groundswell of support from taxpayers, because he is finding stiff resistance to his proposed state budget from school boards and teachers.
Scott outlined his spending proposals in his recent budget speech and made good on his promise not to raise taxes or fees. He even went further. The governor proposed limitations on school spending that would be annually adjusted — up or down — depending on the number of students attending a school; plus, he proposed that teachers contribute 20 percent to their health care premiums. He would use the savings generated from these proposals to stem the growth in property taxes, make payments for teacher retirement costs and other benefits, and fund increases in early education as well as higher education.
By moving these programs into the education fund, he also frees up future general fund money that allows him to avoid drastic cuts in human service programs. Scott contends that there is a need to consolidate programs into the education fund and look at education holistically — from early education, to kindergarten through high school, and including higher education. Opponents may say that moving these programs to the education fund sets up an undesired situation where more programs now compete against one another for scarce resources and, in the end, will negatively impact K-12 education.
Much of the educational establishment has voiced opposition to Scott’s plan. What probably most worries school boards, administrators and teachers is developing a budget for fiscal year 2018 that is the same as the prior year, or what is called a level-funded budget. The education community will contend that costs are rising and major cuts will be needed to comply with the governor’s proposal; plus, they simply don’t have the time to reconfigure a new school budget. Scott will counter that he has level-funded state government, and he is only asking school officials to do the same as he has done; plus he has given them more time to develop their budgets. And, he will add that he has proposed a financing mechanism to allow for a 5-percent budget increase — for one year only — in fiscal year 2018 if there is a need for additional funds. School officials will probably say that the state of Vermont has a variety of revenue sources, whereas local schools are mostly financed through the property tax — therefore, Scott’s level-funding task is much easier.
Expect the back and forth between the governor and the educational establishment to be endless. The public will get bedazzled with points and counterpoints. It is very likely the educational establishment will be well organized and financed in opposition to these proposals. On the other hand, it is unlikely that taxpayers — even if it is a majority of Vermonters who support Scott’s measures — will be as organized, as well financed, and perhaps as intense as opponents. The opponents to Scott’s education plan will have an easier time attempting to stop these proposals than the governor will have in getting them passed.
If Governor Scott wants to lead a revolution to rein in educational costs, then he needs to rally support from Vermonters outside of the State House. According to recent polls, Vermonters are concerned about their economic future, but asking them to be as intense in their support for Scott’s proposals, as their opponents are against them, is difficult. Generally, most Vermonters have things happening in their lives other than paying close attention to state budget proposals, even ones that may impact them. But for many of those who oppose Scott’s proposals, education is their life.
Elsewhere in the budget, Scott is probably going to find support to borrow $32 million to fund more affordable housing. And there will be little opposition to borrowing $20 million a year for the next two years to fund the cleanup of Lake Champlain. The hard part is what the state does after two years, because the estimated cost of the lake cleanup is $1 billion.
There are likely to be disagreements in other sections of Scott’s budget, but in the end, the most pronounced disagreement will come down to his education proposals. Right now, Scott has an advantage: He remains popular with Vermonters. Being a popular governor allows him to marshal support for his budget, but it takes time to get out and rally that support. It’s unclear if Scott can generate enough support to overcome resistance to his proposals. But if he fails in his attempt to rein in education costs, the question will be this: Will voters take it out on legislators resisting change, or on the governor for proposing such a change? The governor is betting that maintaining the status quo, or clinging to incremental changes, when Vermonters desire economic relief from their property taxes, is never good politics.
Mike Smith is the host of the radio program, “Open Mike with Mike Smith,” on WDEV 550 AM and 96.1, 96.5, 98.3 and 101.9 FM. He is also a political analyst for WCAX-TV and WVMT radio and is a regular contributor to Vermont Business Magazine, The Times Argus and Rutland Herald. He was the secretary of administration and secretary of human services under former Gov. Jim Douglas.