Vermont Business Magazine Personal Income tax revenues showed strength for the second consecutive month, after a long period of sluggish performance, which led General Fund revenues to a near-break even against expectations for September. Corporate tax revenue, which has been a strength the last few years, was below targets. Consumption revenues were all slightly down, except for motor vehicle purchases, which previously had been a weakness. However, year-to-year numbers for Personal Income (the single most important revenue source), Sales and Corporate are all down year-to-year. Since the end of the Great Recession, year-to-year revenues have been growing.
Secretary of Administration Trey Martin released on Monday Vermont’s “Preliminary” revenue results for September of 2016. Preliminary data reflected a good month for Transportation Fund and a slightly down month for the Education Fund. September is the third month of Fiscal Year 2017.
“Overall, these numbers reflect the continued strong growth of Vermont’s economy under this Administration, which has overseen steady and sustainable revenue growth of more than 3 percent over the last five and a half years, has worked with Vermont businesses to help bring 19,000 new jobs online, and held growth of our total budget to 3.7 percent overall. Most importantly, we have delivered balanced budgets year after year without increasing income tax, sales tax, or rooms and meals tax rates.”
The General Fund for the month of September collected $144.33 million, -$1.07 million or .74 percent below the consensus revenue targets adopted by the Emergency Board on July 21, 2016. This slightly lower than expected performance in September was driven by an underperformance in the Corporate Tax of -$4.07 or –18.86 percent , Sales and Use of -$0.18 million or 0.93 percent , and Meals and Rooms Tax of -$0.16 million or –1.02 percent . These underperforming components were partially offset by a better than expected performance in the Personal Income Tax component of $3.67 million or 4.81 percent. Through the first three months of the fiscal year the General Fund is essentially on target with its consensus revenue projection from July. Year to date receipts in General Fund are $349.54 million, versus a target of $349.58 million.
The Transportation Fund collected $25.79 million for the month of September, +$0.65 million or +2.59 percent above a target of $25.14 million. Better than projected results in the Motor Vehicle Fees of +$.89 million or 13.17 percent were offset by a slight underperformance in the other tax components.
The Education Fund collected $16.07 million for the month of September, missing the target by -$0.04 million or –.24 percent . The underperformance of -$0.41 million in the Lottery Transfer and -$0.10 in Sales and Use were offset by the better than expected performance on the MV Purchase and Use Fees of +$0.45 million.
Revenues increased year over year in the General Fund by +$9.28 million or 2.73 percent , the Transportation Fund +$0.79 million or 1.18 percent , and the Education Fund +$0.28 million or 0.61 percent .
Secretary Martin said, “We are pleased to see the General Fund on target year to date, although we will be watching the individual components closely as trends begin emerging over the next few months.”
