by Mike Smith Some political candidates may wish Tuesday’s election is about something else; but the most important issue on the minds of a majority of Vermonters is the economy. WCAX-TV reported that 21.6 percent of those Vermonters polled want the next governor to focus on the economy and jobs, followed by 14.8 percent who said health care was a top priority, while 13.8 percent said taxes. If you combine these top three issues (health care concerns are probably driven by the cost of health care coverage) just over 50 percent of Vermonters are concerned about economic issues when they think about the race for governor. Other issues such as marijuana legalization were far behind these major economic concerns. Castleton Polling Institute reported similar results last year. There are probably three primary reasons for this continued economic angst.
First, as I mentioned in a column more than a year ago, the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 had an impact on our psyches. Although we have long been out of that recession, the combination of slow job growth and rising taxes and fees makes us more pessimistic about the future than we normally would be. In fact, we find ourselves in what can only be described as a “new norm,” where many low- and middle-income families find it difficult for their incomes to keep pace with the cost of living in Vermont.
Second, none of the promised savings and lower premiums in health care has materialized. Although the state has been successful in making health insurance available to more Vermonters, the cost of that health insurance continues to skyrocket. In addition, Vermonters are skeptical of the state’s ability to successfully implement any health care reform after the costly and chaotic implementation of the Vermont Health Connect website.
Third, Vermonters feel tapped out. Taxes and fees continue to increase. Vermont consistently ranks among the top highest taxed states for income, sales, and property. In fact, the financial publication Kiplinger ranked Vermont as the least friendly place to retire. This is not news to most Vermonters. They have seen the data, and it reinforces what they are experiencing. Of course, it is much easier, but less productive, to attack the data than to confront the issue of a high tax burden. Serious attempts to lower taxes means prioritizing programs and services in a way that still meets the needs of Vermonters but in a much more effective and efficient manner.
Elections are won and lost on who best addresses the major concerns of Vermonters, in this case their economic concerns. The political candidate that can ease Vermonters’ economic angst will have a clear advantage. Of course, there are other issues, and some voters will cast their vote for a candidate on a single non-economic issue such as guns, wind and marijuana. But, for the vast majority of Vermonters the money issues far surpass anything else.
Both candidates for governor recognize the importance of having an economic message, but they go at it in different ways. Republican candidate Phil Scott has attempted to focus his campaign almost exclusively on the economy and jobs and has, for the most part, succeeded in staying on message. Although Democrat Sue Minter often speaks about economic issues, she has done so without the same focus, clarity and passion of Scott and muddles her economic message by advocating for new taxes or refusing to veto future taxes.
So as Vermonters go to the polls on Tuesday it will be interesting which economic message — Minter’s or Scott’s — will resonate. But what is certain is that Vermonters want their next governor to ease their concerns about economic issues in this state.
Mike Smith is the host of the radio program, “Open Mike with Mike Smith,” on WDEV 550 AM and 96.1, 96.5, 98.3 and 101.9 FM. He is also a political analyst for WCAX-TV and WVMT radio and is a regular contributor to Vermont Business Magazine, The Times Argus and Rutland Herald. He was the secretary of administration and secretary of human services under former Gov. Jim Douglas.