by Mike Smith Last week Vermont Public Radio released a poll conducted by the Castleton Polling Institute. If you read only the news headlines about this poll, you might conclude that the race for governor is all but settled with Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott winning handedly.After all, 66 percent of those respondents who said they had already made up their mind about who they would vote for in the governor’s race indicate they would support Scott.His nearest competitor is Democrat Matt Dunne, who trails by a massive margin at just 15 percent. There’s no doubt at this stage of the race this news is encouraging for Scott. However, it’s a long way to November 8th and as a Republican in a deep blue state, with a senior USSenator up for reelection and a junior USSenator rocking the political establishment, Scott’s path to being Vermont’s next governor will be filled with challenges. To win, he must navigate this path with precision and resolve.
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For example, when you take a closer look at the poll, 71 percent of Vermonters surveyed haven’t decided or aren’t sure who they’ll support for governor. That is a significant number of undecided voters and they are up for grabs to a candidate who can make the best case for their support.
Why such a large number? Well, it’s early. Statewide elections tend to really get going after the legislative session concludes, usually in May. And given the excitement surrounding the presidential election, it is no wonder Vermonters haven’t yet focused on this race.But they will.
It is also likely that name recognition is a factor in Scott’s lead.Right now, as lieutenant governor, he has a higher profile than other candidates.But that will change almost overnight when opponents start advertising, increase their earned media presence and start distributing campaign material. In a small state like Vermont you can easily boost your name recognition.
Of course this takes money. But, Bruce Lisman, Scott’s primary opponent, has plenty of it and the expectation is that he’ll use it. In the past Matt Dunne has been prolific at raising money. Sue Minter has yet to prove herself as a successful fundraiser, but she’ll certainly raise enough to compete. Suffice to say, all the candidates will have financial resources.
A challenge for Scott is that he will have to contend with who will be at the top of the Republican ticket. Right now, the VPR poll has Donald Trump leading other Republican candidates in Vermont’s presidential primary on Town Meeting Day, also known nationally as Super Tuesday. The presidential race will have a bearing on the race for governor. Although Scott has indicated he will not support Donald Trump, or USSenator Ted Cruz, nonetheless either of those names at the top of the ticket will be a hurdle he must overcome. Most Vermonters reject the notion that local Republican candidates are like their national party leaders. But Scott will need to repeatedly remind voters of that distinction.
Governor Jim Douglas proved that a Republican could be elected in this state with an unpopular Republican incumbent running for president in ’04; and when a very popular Democrat won the White House in ‘08. However, having Trump or Cruz at the top of the Republican ticket with the possibility of Bernie Sanders as the Democratic nominee would be an even greater challenge for a Republican running to be Vermont’s governor in 2016. The reason: turnout. This would mean a flood of voters coming to the polls that will be more inclined to vote for Democrats.
Of course, the Democrats have their challenges too. The poll indicates just 9 percent of Vermonters support Hillary Clinton over Sanders. If Clinton is the Democratic nominee there will be less enthusiasm for her candidacy in Vermont than if Sanders were the nominee. And disappointed Sanders voters – many of whom dislike Clinton – may simply stay home in protest, instead of voting for Clinton.
In addition, Democrats running for governor will have to contend with the lack of enthusiasm for the current administration. The VPR poll indicated that more Vermonters disapprove of the job Governor Peter Shumlin is doing than approve of his job performance. Minter, a close Shumlin ally and former member of his administration has been unabashed in her defense of the administration at public forums. Dunne has been more nuanced and cautious. Nevertheless, it could be very problematic for any of the Democratic candidates if a majority of Vermonters coalesce around the notion that a vote for a Democrat will mean the continuation of the policies and positions of the current administration.
The gubernatorial race is just getting started. It’s likely Scott will find himself in a tighter race fairly soon. So it’s probably best not to jump to any conclusions regarding the results of this newest poll.
Mike Smith was the secretary of administration and secretary of human services under former Gov. Jim Douglas. He is the host of the radio program, “Open Mike with Mike Smith,” on WDEV 550 AM and 96.1, 96.5 and 101.9 FM. He is also a political analyst for WCAX-TV and WVMT radio and is a regular contributor to the Times Argus, Rutland Herald and Vermont Business Magazine.