Vermont Public Radio VPR has released a sweeping poll on several of the most compelling topics in Vermont today. What do Vermonters think about the coming election? What about renewable energy? Guns? Marijuana? School consolidation? Vermont Public Radio has released the full results of a statewide poll that measures Vermonters’ opinions about the presidential race and other key issues facing the state. From February 3 through February 17, 2016, VPR and The Castleton Polling Institute surveyed 895 people living in all of Vermont's 14 counties via landline and mobile phone. The full results, methodology, and appendices are available for download at VPR.net.
VPR will provide extensive broadcast and digital coverage of the results this week, including Vermont Edition at noon and 7 p.m. on Monday and Tuesday.
VPR has occasionally conducted public opinion surveys over the years in order to tell the story of Vermont during times of change, and to help the statewide community understand who we are and what we believe.
This is the first of three polls VPR will conduct this year, with the other two coming along in the summer and fall.
THE VPR POLL: THE OVERALL RESULTS
Note about Margins of Error: Please note that for questions with the full sample size, 895 respondents, the sampling error is 3.27%. However, where the sample size is smaller, e.g. for demographics like gender, party, region, age, the sampling error is larger. For more information about the samples, margins and methodology see the documentation below.
Are you likely to choose the ballot for the Democratic primary or for the Republican primary?
Democratic64.7%
Republican20.2%
Other/Progressive1.7%
Not sure11.1%
Refused2.2%
Total100.0%
Total respondents 749
If the Republican primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would you favor ...
Jeb Bush7.7%
Chris Christie2.4%
Marco Rubio16.9%
John Kasich10.0%
Ted Cruz10.5%
Ben Carson3.1%
Donald Trump32.4%
Carly Fiorina1.0%
Rick Santorum0.6%
Someone else3.3%
Not sure/Don't know 12.1%
Total100.0%
Total respondents 151
If the Democratic Primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates would you favor...
Hilary Clinton 9.0%
Bernie Sanders83.1%
Someone else0.5%
Not sure/Don't know 7.4%
Total100.0%
Total respondents 485
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
Approve52%
Disapprove34%
Not sure/No opinion13%
Refuse1%
Total respondents895
Note: The above results about the presidential candidates are based on responses from the entire survey, representing the general population. For results from those identifying as likely voters, download the full poll results and details below.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Peter Shumlin is handling his job as Governor of Vermont?
Approve37%
Disapprove40%
Not sure/No opinion22%
Refuse1%
Total respondents895
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Patrick Leahy is handling his job as one of Vermont's U.S. senators?
Approve65%
Disapprove14%
Not sure/No opinion20%
Refuse0%
Total respondents895
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Peter Welch is handling his job representing Vermont in the U.S. House of Representatives?
Approve59%
Disapprove11%
Not sure/No opinion29%
Refuse1%
Total respondents895
How closely have you followed news about the 2016 presidential election?
Very closely37%
Somewhat closely45%
Not too closely13%
Not at all4%
Total respondents895
How likely are you to vote in the Vermont presidential primary election that will take place on March 1, Town Meeting Day?
Very likely71%
Somewhat likely13%
Not too likely 6%
Not likely at all10%
Not sure/No opinion1%
Total respondents895
Are you likely to choose the ballot for the Democratic primary or for the Republican primary?
Democratic65%
Republican20%
Other/Progressive2%
Not sure11%
Refused2%
Total respondents767
Is your mind made up about who you will vote for in the presidential primary, or is it possible you might change your mind?
Mind made up 61%
Might change mind36%
Don't know/Refused3%
Total respondents649
Looking ahead one year, do you expect your personal financial situation to get much better, get somewhat better, stay about the same, get somewhat worse, or get much worse?
Get much better6%
Get somewhat better27%
Stay about the same 55%
Get somewhat worse 8%
Get much worse1%
Not sure/No opinion2%
Refused0%
Total respondents895
How closely have you followed news about the 2016 Vermont governor's race?
Very closely9%
Somewhat closely25%
Not too closely40%
Not at all26%
Not sure/Don't know 0%
Refused0%
Total respondents895
Of the two candidates running for the Democratic nomination for governor, which do you prefer?
Sue Minter11%
Matt Dunne19%
Someone else (specify)0%
Neither18%
Not sure/Don't know 51%
Refused1%
Total respondents895
Of the two candidates running for the Republican nomination for governor, which do you prefer?
Phil Scott42%
Bruce Lisman4%
Someone else (specify)0%
Neither13%
Not sure/Don't know 40%
Refused1%
Total respondents895
Do you know who you hope to see elected as Vermont's governor in November 2016?
Yes29%
No51%
Not sure/No opinion20%
Refused0%
Total respondents895
Who do you hope to see elected Vermont's governor in November 2016?
Sue Minter12%
Matt Dunne15%
Phil Scott66%
Bruce Lisman3%
Someone else (specify)2%
Not sure/Don't know 1%
Refused0%
Total respondents292
What do you think should be done to address healthcare in Vermont? Should we...
Improve and continue with the Vermont Health Connect, the state health care system20%
Move toward a single payer system like Medicare for all33%
Discard the Vermont state exchange (Vermont Health Connect) and adopt the federal exchange8%
Or something else (specify):19%
Not sure/Don't know 19%
Refused1%
Total respondents895
Should Doctor Dynasaur–the low-cost or free health care coverage for children under 19 and pregnant women who qualify–be expanded to include everyone under age 27?
Yes45%
No40%
Not sure/No opinion15%
Refused0%
Total respondents895
Do you support or oppose passing a law in Vermont to legalize and regulate marijuana for recreational use?
Support legalization55%
Oppose legalization32%
Not sure/No opinion13%
Refused1%
Total respondents895
How strongly do you support the legalization of marijuana for recreational use in Vermont?
Very strongly47%
Somewhat strongly42%
Not too strongly10%
Not at all strongly1%
Not sure/No opinion0%
Total respondents458
How strongly do you oppose the legalization of marijuana for recreational use in Vermont?
Very strongly54%
Somewhat strongly30%
Not too strongly10%
Not at all strongly4%
Not sure/No opinion1%
Total respondents316
Do you approve or disapprove of plans to develop underground power lines to bring electricity from Canada through Vermont?
Approve42%
Disapprove25%
Not sure/No opinion33%
Refused0%
Total respondents895
How closely do you follow news about how solar fields and wind turbine locations are determined?
Very closely12%
Closely30%
Not very closely41%
Not at all17%
Don't know/Unsure0%
Total respondents895
Would you support the development of a large solar array in your community?
Yes70%
No18%
Not sure/Don't know 11%
Refused0%
Total respondents895
Would you support the development of large wind-power turbines in your community?
Yes56%
No33%
Not sure/Don't know 11%
Refused0%
Total respondents894
Do you support, oppose, or have no opinion about the current method Vermont uses to approve the location of renewable energy sites?
Support17%
Oppose27%
Not sure/No opinion57%
Total respondents894
Would you support or oppose investing state tax revenue into developing more passenger rail service throughout Vermont?
Support61%
Oppose24%
It depends 3%
Not sure/No opinion11%
Total respondents895
In your opinion, is Vermont state government doing all it can to address climate change, is it doing too much, or is it not doing enough?
Doing all it can do35%
Doing too much9%
Not doing enough39%
Not sure/No opinion17%
Refused0%
Total respondents895
How familiar are you with Act 46? Are you...
Very familiar13%
Somewhat familiar44%
Not at all familiar42%
Not sure/No opinion0%
Total respondents895
Do you generally support or oppose the state's efforts to encourage consolidation of Vermont's school districts?
Support51%
Oppose29%
It depends 6%
Not sure/No opinion14%
Refused0%
Total respondents895
Do you support or oppose limiting where someone is allowed to carry a firearm?
Support58%
Oppose32%
It Depends 5%
Not sure/No opinion5%
Refused0%
Total respondents895
Do you support or oppose requiring a waiting period on gun sales, meaning that the purchaser would have to wait a number of days from the time they purchase a gun until they are allowed to take it home?
Support83%
Oppose13%
It depends 3%
Not sure/No opinion2%
Refused0%
Total respondents895
Do you support or oppose requiring background checks for all gun purchases, including private sales and sales at gun shows?
Support89%
Oppose9%
It depends 1%
Not sure/No opinion1%
Refused0%
Total respondents895
FILES, APPENDICES & METHODOLOGY
- File #1: Overall Poll Results (XLS)
- File #2: Presidential campaign questions, with breakout of Likely Voters (XLS).
- File #3: Appendices: The poll's Transparency Initiative Details, Sampling Errors and the Survey Instrument
- File #4: Methodology Statement
The poll was made possible by the VPR Journalism Fund.
Source: Vermont Public Radio. 2.22.2016 www.VPR.net