by Chris Graff So much for this being the year of the political outsider. Not so in Vermont. The two insiders easily won the Democratic and Republican nominations for governor. Of the five leading candidates for governor, three – Matt Dunne, Peter Galbraith and Bruce Lisman – trumpeted that it was time for a change, time for a new direction. Those three lost. The winners – Sue Minter and Phil Scott – focused on their resumes, their accomplishments and their abilities to get things done.
What’s even more interesting is that Minter and Scott were the optimists. Their perspectives were sunny-side up. Both of them kept their messages positive – unusual in a year in which national politics have been focused on the sky falling in.
This primary election was a rollercoaster, with twists and turns.
The irony is that even though it was one of the longest primary campaigns in history, the contest was roiling down to the final days.
Governor Peter Shumlin opened up the long season in June of 2015 when he announced he would not seek re-election. That early announcement led to early decisions by House Speaker Shap Smith, Dunne, and Minter to enter the Democratic race.
Smith, considered the early favorite, then stepped away from the race so he could devote himself to his wife’s health issues. He would later re-enter as a candidate for lieutenant governor. Former Senator Peter Galbraith jumped into the gubernatorial race this spring, touting himself as the true progressive.
History has shown that candidates usually lose their first statewide race, a fact that should have favored Dunne, who was making his third. But this year that tradition did not hold true. Minter, making her first bid for statewide office, won.
In the last month it became clear the race was between Dunne and Minter. The two battled over endorsements and positions. In the end, though, the final two weeks were fatal for Dunne – and many would argue the wounds were self-inflicted.
His position change on industrial wind, his argument that there had been no change, the loss of support from environmental guru Bill McKibben, a fight with Shumlin, a constant and biting attack from Galbraith, and then a decision to loan his campaign personal money contrary to previous statements he would not, set back his campaign.
On the campaign trail in July. Left, Sue Minter during a VBM interview. Above, Phil Scott and Bruce Lisman exchange greetings. Vermontbiz.com photos
Throughout his all, Minter never wavered in her positions and picked up a key endorsement late in the campaign from former Governor Howard Dean. Her message: I get tough things done is exactly the same message that in 2010 led Shumlin to victory, both in the primary and the general election.
On the GOP side, Scott won against Bruce Lisman in a race that became more bitter and personal as the campaign went on. Lisman positioned himself as the anti-politician, saying, “I am an outsider. I am looking at it in an entirely different way. I am not the usual guy. I try not to say the usual things. I won’t do the usual things if I am elected your governor.”
He said Scott was part of the problem, one of the insiders, far too cozy with the Shumlin administration, and then launched a lengthy multi-media attack on Scott’s character.
The results show that campaign was ineffective. Scott, on election night, said, “Tonight we can say with certainty that this campaign settles an important debate: Negative campaigns don't work in Vermont.”
Scott could say that once the votes were counted, but the truth was no one was quite certain whether the negative ads were working.
The actions of the Scott campaign – calling Lisman a liar, for example – showed they were worried.
And perhaps if the turnout had been lower, Lisman would have done better.
Now the General Election begins.
Polling today would probably show Scott the frontrunner based on name recognition with a large number undecided.
But the betting is that the race will be close on election day.
Chris Graff, a former Vermont bureau chief of The Associated Press and host of VPT's Vermont This Week, is now vice president for communications at National Life Group. He is author of, Dateline Vermont: Covering and uncovering the newsworthy stories that shaped a state - and influenced a nation.
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