by Mike Smith In 1992, then-candidate for president Bill Clinton defeated incumbent George HW Bush and won the presidency by focusing on the economy. In 2016, more than 20 years later, Vermont politicians wishing to be elected to political office would be wise to have a similar focus. According to a recent poll conducted by the Castleton Polling Institute, Vermonters list economic issues as their top concern. More than a third of Vermonters said that the economy, jobs and the cost of living in Vermont was their top concern. But when you add that to those who cited taxes and government spending as their top concerns almost half of Vermonters expressed financial or economic concerns as the issue foremost on their minds.
This continued angst with the condition of our economy is understandable, given where we have come from. The Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 had an impact on our psyches. And although we have long been out of recession according to economists, slow job growth, rising taxes, the cost of living in this state and stagnant wages have all conspired to make it more and more difficult for average Vermonters to get ahead.
Our economic concerns are compounded by world events. China’s economy is slowing, the Euro Zone is having economic struggles, Russia is on the march, and the Middle East is in turmoil. And, if historical trends since WWII are any indication in predicting future recessions, we are due for another one soon, although few believe it will be as severe as our last downturn.
Our collective concern is very real.
Vermonters see IBM — once our largest private employer — bought by GlobalFoundries and within months the new company offers employee buyouts and suggests possible future layoffs. And now there are reports of a possible sale of GlobalFoundries to a Chinese firm. We see that job losses in the manufacturing and construction industries have not abated in Vermont. And job growth overall is sluggish and only limited to a few counties in the state.
Vermonters are also experiencing real estate values that are still down from their pre-recession highs; and median household income continues to fall according to the latest U.S Census data. In addition, when comparing the three-year period from 2011-2013 to that of 1988-1990 median household income is about the same as it was 20 years ago.
And although the unemployment rate is low when compared to other states the rate isn’t low in all regions of the state.For example, the Northeast Kingdom has an unemployment rate that is between 5 and 7 percent whereas Chittenden Country is at 2.9 percent. The collective sentiment felt by working Vermonters, especially those outside Chittenden County, is they are not getting ahead in this state and their economic future is uncertain.
Add to the less than overwhelming economic data just cited, a recent survey by Kiplinger’s (a financial magazine) that pegs Vermont as the seventh least tax-friendly state and it is no surprise why the Castleton Polling Institute got the results that it did.
The good news is that the economic concerns of Vermonters are probably not as alarming as they were in 2008 and 2009 during the height of the recession. But the bad news is Vermonters’ anxiety about the state’s economy is still very high, and very real.
These financial and economic concerns are going to be a driving force in voter decision-making in the 2016 election cycle.
Bill Clinton’s campaign team had another internal slogan that has garnered less notoriety as the gem, “the economy, stupid.” This other phrase had a huge impact in guiding their winning campaign: “vs. more of the same.”
More of the same is probably not going to be good enough for most Vermonters. The politician is willing to advocate for deep, meaningful change is likely to be much more successful with voters than those who do not. Bumping along doing the same thing: or worse, doing something that causes more economic concern among Vermonters will result in some sorely disappointed candidates.
Mike Smith was the secretary of administration and secretary of human services under former Governor Jim Douglas. He is the host of the new radio program, “Open Mike with Mike Smith,” on WDEV. He is also a political analyst for WCAX-TV and WVMT radio and is a regular contributor to the Times Argus, Rutland Herald and Vermont Business Magazine.