Vermont Business Magazine The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for May was 3.6 percent. This represents no change from the revised April rate (3.6 percent). The national average in May was 5.5 percent, which experienced an increase of one-tenth of a percentage point from the previous month’s estimate. The seasonally adjusted Vermont data for May show the Vermont civilian labor force increased by 300 from the prior month estimate. The number of employed increased by 500 and the number of unemployed decreased by 200. None of the over-the-month changes were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series. As of the prior month’s initial data, Vermont’s unemployment rate was tied for fourth lowest in the country. May represents the eighth consecutive month without an increase to the unemployment rate.
“The May seasonally adjusted job numbers (total nonfarm payroll, see NOTE below) showed an over the month decline, as anticipated, due to the strong month of April numbers and the seasonal factors which can be difficult to predict in Vermont. These over the month fluctuations demonstrate the importance of looking at more data to better understand the overall trends. Since July 2013, the Vermont economy has been steadily improving. This long period of economic growth has taken Vermont above pre-recessionary levels and into a period of economic expansion. Vermont employers are looking for employees to grow their business. Vermonters will be hearing more and more about job fairs and employment opportunities. If you want to learn about opportunities in your region, visit a local Vermont Department of Labor Career Resource Center", said Annie Noonan, Commissioner of Labor.
May unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 2.6 percent in Burlington-South Burlington to 5.6 percent in Woodstock (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted). For comparison, the May unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 3.3 percent which reflects a decrease of four-tenths of a percentage point from the revised April level and a decrease of five-tenths of a percentage point from a year ago.
Not Seasonally Adjusted
The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for May show an increase of 1,300 jobs when compared to the revised April numbers. There was a decrease of 700 jobs between the preliminary and the revised April estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The monthly increase seen in the May numbers was attributable to seasonal increases related to construction. The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ May data, Total Private industries have increased by 3,600 jobs (1.4 percent) and Government employment increased by 200 jobs (0.4 percent) in the past year.
Seasonally Adjusted
The seasonally adjusted data for May reports a decrease of 2,100 jobs from the revised April data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised April numbers which experienced a 700 job decrease from the preliminary estimates. The seasonally adjusted over-the-month changes in May were varied at the sectorial level. Those with a notable percent increase include: Construction (+600 jobs or +4.1%) and Professional and Business Services (+200 jobs or +0.8%). Industries with a notable percent decrease include: State Government (-1,800 jobs or -9.1%), Leisure and Hospitality (-600 jobs or -1.6%) and Trade, Transportation and Utilities (-800 jobs or -1.4%).
NOTE: Employment (nonfarm payroll)- A count of all persons who worked full- or part-time or received pay from a nonagricultural employer for any part of the pay period which included the 12th of the month. Because this count comes from a survey of employers, persons who work for two different companies would be counted twice. Therefore, nonfarm payroll employment is really a count of the number of jobs, rather than the number of persons employed. Persons may receive pay from a job if they are temporarily absent due to illness, bad weather, vacation, or labor-management dispute. This count is based on where the jobs are located, regardless of where the workers reside, and is therefore sometimes referred to as employment "by place of work." Nonfarm payroll employment data are collected and compiled based on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, conducted by the Vermont Department of Labor. This count was formerly referred to as nonagricultural wage and salary employment.
