by Michael SmithIn all likelihood, it didn’t take a political poll for him to make his decision.Governors are made keenly aware of the public’s views as they travel the state for meetings, events and parades. This is a state where governors are incredibly close to the people they serve. The reportedly cool receptions he was receiving at events must have been an indication Vermonters wanted change.
And so, with the announcement this week that he will not seek re-election, a political career will come to an end and Gov. Peter Shumlin will step down in January 2017.
The governor insists he had planned on serving only three terms. However, there is little doubt among political insiders he would have sought re-election for a fourth term if voter sentiment was more favorable. In fact, he and his team were insisting he was running for re-election just days before his announcement. Ironically, and perhaps disappointingly to many, Shumlin’s political fortunes could have been so much different.
There’s no doubt the governor is an idea man — the bigger, the better. When he speaks about his big ideas he does so with fervor, which generates enthusiasm and raises expectations among Vermonters. But he often fails to generate the same fervor and required leadership to ensure these ideas are properly implemented. As a result, some of his biggest and most exciting ideas have fallen to the wayside. This leads to disappointment on many levels and in many policy areas, particularly in health care, economic growth and fundamental management of the state budget and state government. Had the governor avoided his propensity to oversell the benefits of his initiatives, only to deliver lesser results, voter sentiment — and satisfaction with his job performance — might have been much more positive.
When practical problems impede political promises, the governor’s instinct is to dismiss and deflect in an attempt to underplay their impact. He once famously described the failures of the health care exchange as a “nothing burger.” On occasion, he is known to play fast and loose with state budget numbers and other details. In his budget address this January, Shumlin described his payroll tax proposal — a massive new $90 million payroll tax — by giving the impression that it would cost only half as much as it really would. A whopping $45 million difference.
This pattern of overpromising and under delivering coupled with attempts to dismiss legitimate problems or issues over time has sharply diminished his credibility.
To be fair, leaders in the Legislature own a substantial degree of responsibility for these disappointments as well. Unfortunately for Gov. Shumlin, in the eyes of the public, governors bear a disproportionate amount of the responsibility. After all, he is the state’s chief executive officer. Making commitments as a governor is much different and much more consequential than making deals as a legislator. Lawmakers can take positions and impose changes without the responsibility of having to implement them or actually having to make them work — governors cannot.
Perhaps what has been equally disappointing to voters is the governor’s often-cavalier approach to non-state related issues. To some, these issues have called into question his character and commitment to the job. The Jeremy Dodge land deal undermined trust in the governor when it appeared he took advantage of a vulnerable person in a questionable real estate transaction. His frequent out-of-state travel, fundraising for the Democratic Governor’s Association, and a record number of vacations, even withholding his whereabouts from the public, created the impression he was more interested in the trappings of being governor than in the fundamentals of managing the large enterprise of state government.
If Shumlin had governed differently perhaps his political fortunes would have been different. Tropical Storm Irene proved that the governor is capable of dynamic leadership. But his wayward political instincts and occasional lack of judgment quickly squandered the political capital that he built up as a result of Irene and undercut his ability to display more of that type of leadership.
Now, with 18 months left in his tenure and unencumbered by re-election considerations, Peter Shumlin and his team have an opportunity to give voters a glimpse of what his governorship might’ve been. No doubt, many Vermonters would be appreciative of such efforts.
Mike Smith was secretary of administration under former Gov. Jim Douglas. He is a political analyst for WCAX-TV and WVMT radio and is a regular contributor to The Times Argus.