Survey suggests guarded optimism for the economy, health insurance concerns persist

The most recent survey of businesses by a Williston accounting firm has found that businesses seem to have a guarded optimism in expected sales growth, expect a steady increase in capital spending, while also feeling that property tax reform and healthcare costs will continue to be issues vital to the success of the economy.The Certified Public Accounting firm of Davis & Hodgdon Associates CPAs located in Williston, Vermont, conducted its semi-annual economic survey in July regarding the outlook of Vermont-based businesses. The survey, customized by the Firm to evaluate small- to medium-sized business, was completed by nearly 100 businesses located throughout the state, primarily in Chittenden (52%) and Washington (11%) counties, but also in Addison (7%) and Lamoille (6%), among other counties.

Respondents were once again asked to forecast their company sales, capital spending and hiring intentions for the next six months. They were also surveyed to describe the current state of the economy, identify key issues impacting their business, as well as list issues that they would like to see addressed by the Vermont legislature by the end of 2014.

SEE CHARTS BELOW

Vermont industries surveyed included professional and technical, manufacturing, retail, finance and insurance, health care and social assistance, construction, hotel and restaurant, transportation and warehousing, educational services, agriculture, information, utilities, and wholesale trade.

The following responses were comparable to the previous two surveys (**January 2014, *July 2013), with a more optimistic attitude among business owners in regards to sales and spending:

  • Expected change in company sales over the next six months.
    • 57% expect an increase versus 56% in January 2014 and 38% in July 2013.
    • 15% expect a decrease versus 18% in January 2014 and 9% in July 2013.
    • 26% expect no change versus 29% in January 2014 and 50% in July 2013.
  • Expected change in capital spending over the next six months.
    • 54% expect an increase versus 56% in January 2014 and 38% in July 2013.
    • 10% expect a decrease versus 18% in January 2014 and 7% in July 2013.
    • 34% expect no change versus 42% in January 2014 and 59% in July 2013.
  • Expected change in staffing over the next six months remains steady.
    • 38% expect an increase versus 35% in January 2014 and 35% in July 2013.
    • 6% expect a decrease versus 11% in January 2014 and 4% in July 2013.
    • 55% expect no change versus 52% in January 2014 and 58% in July 2013.
  • Describe the current state of the U.S. economy.
    • 47% improving versus 53% in January 2014 and 44% in July 2013.
    • 7% declining versus 13% in January 2014 and 21% in July 2013.
    • 43% stagnant versus 32% in January 2014 and 34% in July 2013.

When asked to describe the current state of the Vermont economy 47% of respondents feel that Vermont’s economy is stagnant while 36% indicated that it is improving and 15% feel that it is in a state of decline. Conversely, 47% of those surveyed identified the U.S. economy as improving, while 43% indicated it is stagnant and only 7% conveyed that it is in a state of decline.

Respondents were once again asked to rank key business issues that they face in the coming year. The most highly ranked concerns included health insurance issues and finding qualified employees, which were the two most often identified in the January 2014 survey as well. Other key issues included property tax reform and education funding.

Of the issues Vermont businesses would like to see addressed by the state legislature in 2014, the most prominent and frequently conveyed concerns remain unchanged from the beginning of the year, which include:

  • Property tax reform
  • Healthcare costs as related to the business owner
  • Simplification of employer regulatory environment

One survey respondent noted, “The business climate in VT is unsustainable. Government is regulating and taxing in such a way that it is crushing businesses - Forcing us to consider relocating... It's a serious issue that our government is apparently blind to.”

When asked to compare the results of the three surveys conducted every six months over the past year, Davis & Hodgdon’s managing partner, John Davis explained, “The tone of comments made by Vermont businesses today is very similar to that of one year ago today. Businesses are feeling burdened and want to see changes in Vermont’s tax and healthcare laws first and foremost. Most continue to feel that Vermont legislators are not doing enough to transform the state into a business-friendly environment.”

Overall Survey Results:

Davis & Hodgdon Associates Semi-Annual Economic Survey

Please indicate your business industry.
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Agriculture
0 0.0%
Construction
2 2.4%
Educational Services
2 2.4%
Finance & Insurance
5 6.0%
Health Care & Social Assistance
8 9.7%
Hotel & Restaurant
3 3.6%
Information
2 2.4%
Manufacturing
12 14.6%
Professional, Technical
23 28.0%
Retail trade
6 7.3%
Transportation & Warehousing
2 2.4%
Utilities
0 0.0%
Wholesale Trade
1 1.2%
Other
16 19.5%
No Responses
0 0.0%
Totals 82 100%
County of Headquarters:
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Addison
6 7.3%
Bennington
1 1.2%
Caledonia
4 4.8%
Chittenden
43 52.4%
Essex
0 0.0%
Franklin
2 2.4%
Lamoille
5 6.0%
Orange
1 1.2%
Orleans
0 0.0%
Rutland
4 4.8%
Washington
10 12.1%
Windham
4 4.8%
Windsor
2 2.4%
No Responses
0 0.0%
Totals 82 100%
Please indicate the scope of your marketplace.
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Exclusive to Vermont
23 28.0%
Multi-state
32 39.0%
National
9 10.9%
International
18 21.9%
No Responses
0 0.0%
Totals 82 100%
Please identify your total annual revenue in fiscal year 2013.
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
$0 - $250k
11 13.4%
$251k - $1M
20 24.3%
$1.1M - $3M
18 21.9%
$3M+
32 39.0%
No Responses
1 1.2%
Totals 82 100%
How do you expect your company's sales to change in the next six months?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Increase by less than 10%
37 45.1%
Increase by 10-30%
9 10.9%
Increase by 30+%
3 3.6%
Decrease by less than 10%
7 8.5%
Decrease by 10-30%
3 3.6%
Decrease by 30+%
2 2.4%
No change
20 24.3%
No Responses
1 1.2%
Totals 82 100%
How do you expect your company's capital spending to change in the next six months?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Increase by less than 10%
31 37.8%
Increase by 10-30%
13 15.8%
Increase by 30+%
2 2.4%
Decrease by less than 10%
5 6.0%
Decrease by 10-30%
1 1.2%
Decrease by 30+%
2 2.4%
No change
27 32.9%
No Responses
1 1.2%
Totals 82 100%
Please indicate your business' total number of employees including self.
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
1 - 10
38 46.3%
11 - 25
10 12.1%
26 - 50
8 9.7%
51 - 75
6 7.3%
75+
19 23.1%
No Responses
1 1.2%
Totals 82 100%
How do you expect your company's employment to change in the next six months?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Increase staffing by 1-3 people
21 25.6%
Increase staffing by 3+ people
10 12.1%
Decrease staffing by 1-3 people
3 3.6%
Decrease staffing by 3+ people
2 2.4%
No change
45 54.8%
No Responses
1 1.2%
Totals 82 100%
How would you describe the current state of Vermont's economy?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Declining
11 13.4%
Stagnant
38 46.3%
Improving
31 37.8%
Very good
2 2.4%
No Responses
0 0.0%
Totals 82 100%
How would you describe the current state of the U.S. economy?
Answer
0% 100%
Number of
Responses
Response
Ratio
Declining
4 4.8%
Stagnant
35 42.6%
Improving
40 48.7%
Very good
2 2.4%
No Responses
1 1.2%
Totals 82 100%
Please rank the following key issues for your business in 2014:
1= Most important
Answer
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Number of
Responses
Ranking
Score*
Sources of financing
79 5.5
Finding qualified employees
79 3.4
Health insurance costs
79 2.9
Tax law changes
79 4.1
Internet security
79 4.7
Business succession planning
79 5.2
Property tax (education funding)
79 4.4
Other (complete below)
79 5.8

*The Ranking Score is the weighted average calculated by dividing the sum of all weighted rankings by the number of total responses.

What is one business economic issue that you would like to see addressed bythe state legislatureby the end of 2014?
Number of
Responses
62
Please enter the information indicated below if you would like additional information including results. (optional)
Answer Number of
Responses
First Name 43
Last Name 43
Company Name 42
Email Address 46

Source:Williston, VTSeptember 8, 2014–The Certified Public Accounting firm of Davis & Hodgdon Associates CPAs

For results of the July 2014 survey results, go to:
http://survey.constantcontact.com/survey/a07e96u192bhu1dnpc8/results

*For results of the July 2013 survey please go to:http://survey.constantcontact.com/survey/a07e7uhtd3lhj7biz32/results

**For results of the January 2014 survey results, go to:
http://www.dh-cpa.com/assets/files/pdf/JANUARY2014.pdf