Personal income tax down again, revenues below targets

With the crucial personal income tax off nearly 11 percent, Vermont General Fund revenues totaled $70.31 million for May 2014, -$5.47 million or -7.22 percent below the monthly target. The personal income tax receipts were off nearly 15 percent in April. Secretary of Administration Jeb Spaulding released the May 2014 General Fund (GF) revenue results today. May is the eleventh month of fiscal year (FY) 2014. Year to date, General Fund receipts are now $1,202.86 million, -$5.38 million or -0.44 percent behind the cumulative target. Year-to-date revenue is $26.64 million (2.26 percent) ahead of the same period for the prior fiscal year (FY 2013).

Spaulding said, “Despite underperforming income tax components in April and May, estate and consumption taxes outperformed expectations. With one month left in the fiscal year, we are essentially on budgetary target for the year. From an economic perspective, the fact that personal income tax withholding receipts are 6.7 percent ahead of last year through eleven months of the fiscal year and that receipts in other important categories, such as sales and rooms and meals, are up respectably over last year is encouraging."

The Transportation Fund also came in lower than budgeted for the month of May, finishing at -$1.2 million, or -5.1 percent, below its monthly target. May’s T Fund underperformance appears to be related in part to one or more late filings by large distributors. With one month to go in the fiscal year, the T Fund stands at -$2.8 million (or -1.2 percent) below its annual target.

Many Vermont axpayers, wary of possible capital gains changes, cashed out in 2012, which has shorted Vermont tax returns for 2013, despite the fact that the tax changes never occurred. April General Fund revenues totaled $206.35 million, down $4.86 million (-2.30 percent) from the monthly target. But personal income taxes were off $22.85 million, which was 14.79 percent below the target. SEE APRIL STORY HERE

"I expect economists will be closely analyzing recent revenue results for trends as they prepare for the revenue forecast update scheduled for mid-July," Spaulding said, commenting on the approaching end of Fiscal Year 2014. "While our year-over-year economic growth remains on an upward trajectory, the State will be fully prepared to respond quickly in the event our economists review our FY 2014 performance versus budgeted targets and recommend a downgrade to projected revenues going forward."

Secretary of Administration 6.6.2014