Personal income tax drives Vermont 'remarkable' revenue gains

Secretary of Administration Jeb Spaulding released the April 2013 General Fund (GF) Revenue results today. General Fund revenues totaled $216.66 million for April 2013, and were +$26.95 million or +14.21% above the $189.71 million consensus revenue forecast for the month. Year to date, General Fund revenues were $1,103.74 million, and +$26.73 million or +2.48% ahead of the cumulative target of $1,077.01 million. April is the tenth month of fiscal year (FY) 2013.
Spaulding stated, Aprils General Fund receipts saw a dramatic upturn in both personal and corporate income taxes. April is the largest single month of revenue receipts in any fiscal year, and this is the largest April ever. This is not a time for irrational exuberance, though, as a good deal of this increase seems to be due to decisions made by taxpayers in December and may well not repeat in the next fiscal year. With the fiscal cliff looming at that time and the uncertainty of future tax rates, it appears that individual and business taxpayers chose to recognize gains and pay taxes in tax year 2012 at known rates, rather than risk paying at increased future rates. General Fund receipts for April 2013 were +20.7% above the monthly receipts for April 2012. Cumulatively, FY 2013 General Fund receipts through April 2013 exceed collections for the same period last year by +$86.10 million or +8.46%.
Current targets reflect the Fiscal Year 2013 Consensus Revenue Forecast adopted by the Emergency Board at their January 23, 2013 meeting. Statutorily, the State is required to revise the Consensus Revenue Forecast two times per year, in January and July; the Emergency Board may schedule interim revisions if deemed necessary. The July 2013 meeting has not been scheduled at this time.
Personal Income Tax (PI) receipts are the largest single state revenue source providing approximately 48% of total GF revenue, although the percentage is likely to be higher this year. PI Tax receipts are reported Net-of-Personal Income Tax refunds. Net Personal Income Tax is comprised of PI Withholding Tax, PI Estimated Payments, PI Refunds Paid, and PI Other. Net PI Receipts for April were $161.33 million against a monthly target of $134.58 million, or +19.88%. The year to date Net PI Receipts were $562.95 million or +6.07% above the FY 2013 target and +10.71% ahead of the results for the same period of the prior fiscal year (FY 2012).
Corporate Income Taxes are also reported net-of refunds. April Net Corporate Income Tax receipts of $15.15 million were +$3.37 million or +28.62% above the monthly target of $11.78 million. Year to date Corporate receipts were $86.75 million or +7.21% above target. Compared to the same period for the prior fiscal year (FY 2012), Corporate Income Tax receipts exceed the prior year by 18.68%.
Consumption tax results for April were mixed against target: Sales & Use Tax receipts of $18.73 million were behind target by -$0.29 million or -1.55%; while Rooms & Meals Tax receipts of $11.84 million were above target by +$1.11 million or +10.35%. Year to date, Sales & Use Tax receipts of $195.37 million are -0.98% below the target of $197.30 million. Cumulative Rooms & Meals Tax of $116.96 million are ahead of target by +1.86%. Sales & Use Tax and Rooms & Meals Tax through April both exceed receipts for the prior year by +1.41% and +6.87%, respectively.
The remaining non-major tax components include Insurance, Inheritance & Estate Tax, Real Property Transfer Tax, and Other (which includes: Bank Franchise Tax, Telephone Tax, Liquor Tax, Beverage Tax, Fees, and Other Taxes). The results for the remaining non-major categories for April were as follows: Insurance Tax, -$1.33 million (-1110.64%) due to insurance premium refunds; Inheritance & Estate Tax, $0.48 (-68.94%); Property Transfer Tax, $0.75 million (-0.32%); and Other, $9.72 million (-13.05%). The fiscal year to date April results for the remaining non-major categories were: Insurance Tax, $47.38 million (-7.03%); Inheritance & Estate Tax, $14.17 million (-21.41%); Property Transfer Tax, $7.31 million (+0.30%); and Other, $72.84 million (-5.33%). Cumulatively, the total non-major component receipts of $141.72 million exceeded the prior year total by +$7.74 million, or +5.77%.

Transportation Fund
The non-dedicated Transportation Fund Revenue for April was also reported on by Secretary Spaulding. Total non-dedicated Transportation Fund receipts of $21.08 million for the month exceeded the target by +$0.78 million (+3.85%). Year to Date, non-dedicated Transportation Fund receipts of $181.03 were -1.00% below the target of $182.85 million. Compared to FY 2012, year to date April Transportation Funds receipts exceed the prior year by +$2.85 million or +1.60% for the same period.
Individual Transportation Fund revenue receipts components for April all fell below target: Gasoline Tax, $4.66 million or +1.66% above target; Diesel Tax, $1.19 million or +3.39% ahead of target; Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $5.58 million or +8.99% above target; Motor Vehicle Fees, $7.93 million or +2.09% above target; and Other Fees, $1.72 million or +2.67% above target for the month. Year to date results for the individual Transportation Fund revenue components for April were: Gasoline Tax, $49.03 million or -1.37% below target; Diesel Tax, $12.04 million or -3.04% below target; Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $43.65 million or +0.42% above target; Motor Vehicle Fees, $60.74 million or -1.25% short of target; and Other Fees, $15.56 million or -1.15% below the monthly target.
Spaulding said, It was a welcome relief to have a positive month for the Transportation Fund, although it was not enough to eliminate the year to date shortfall. The underlying issues in the Transportation Fund have been addressed in the current legislative session, at least for the near term, and the increased gas tax will impact receipts for the remainder of FY 2013. We do expect to see improvement, but it may not be enough to completely make up the shortfall in the two remaining months of FY 2013.
The secretary also reported on the results for the Transportation Infrastructure Bond Fund (TIB). TIB Fund Gas receipts for April were $1.70 million or +2.93% above the monthly target; year to date TIB Gas receipts were $17.78 million or -0.88% below target. TIB Fund Diesel receipts for the month were $0.14 million or -13.02% behind the monthly target; year to date TIB Diesel receipts were $1.33 million or -8.84% below target. The year to date TIB Gas and Diesel results were +2.08% ahead and -12.47% behind the TIB Fund Gas receipts and TIB Diesel receipts, respectively, from the prior year (FY 2012). TIB Fund receipts are noted below the following table:

Education Fund
Spaulding also released the non-Property Tax Education Fund revenues (which constitute approximately 12% of the total Education Fund sources) today. The non-Property Tax Education Fund receipts for April totaled $14.38 million, or +$0.04 million (+0.28%) above the $14.34 million target for the month. Year to date, non-Property Tax Education Fund receipts were $136.88 million, or -1.01% short of the year to date target.
The individual Education Fund revenue component results for April were: Sales & Use Tax, $9.36 million, or -1.55% below target; Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $2.79 million or +8.99%; Lottery Transfer, $2.21 million or -2.32%; and Education Fund Interest for April was less than $.00 million against a target of less than $0.01 million. Year to date receipts by component were: Sales & Use Tax, $97.69 million, or -0.98% short of target; Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $21.83 million or +0.42%; Lottery Transfer, $17.29 million or -2.84% below target; year to date Education Fund Interest was less than $0.08 million against a target under $0.09 million or -13.94%. As compared to prior year, FY 2013 year to date non-Property Tax Education Fund receipts are +0.99% ahead of the FY 2012 results for the same period.

Conclusion
Secretary Spaulding concluded, We are buoyed by the remarkable General Fund results for April. With only two months remaining in the fiscal year, we are confident we will finish positive to target for the year. We might reasonably expect revenues above projections to be in the range of $16 20 million, but that could change for a number of reasons in the next month and a half. Any surplus funds will be used to build General Fund reserves and reduce property taxes.
Secretary of Administration. 5.10.2013