CLF study: VTGas expansion would increase greenhouse gases, not reduce them

by Andrew Stein June 18, 2013 vtdigger.org Vermont Gas Systems has consistently maintained that its proposed 41.2-mile southern expansion into Addison County would help reduce Vermont’s greenhouse gas emissions. But an analysis from the Conservation Law Foundation suggests the natural gas pipeline would increase carbon dioxide pollution.
On Friday, the foundation submitted testimony from a consultant explaining how VTGas Vice President Eileen Simollardes omitted crucial information from the company’s greenhouse gas estimates. The consultant, Elizabeth Stanton, submitted her analysis to the Vermont Public Service Board as part of its consideration of whether to permit the project.
Stanton testified that VTGas had failed to include methane and neglected to take life cycle emissions of the project into account. Her calculations show that ‘net emissions would, in fact, increase from the proposed expansion.’
‘I demonstrate that Ms. Simollardes’assumptions are inaccurate,’Stanton wrote.
The Conservation Law Foundation contracted Stanton, a senior associate at Synapse Energy Economics Inc., to analyze VTGas’emissions calculations. According to Synapse’s website, the firm ‘provides research, testimony, reports, and regulatory support to consumer advocates, environmental organizations, regulatory commissions, state energy offices, and others.’
VTGas spokesman Steve Wark says the idea that natural gas would increase Addison County emissions is inaccurate. No. 2 oil, which is more commonly used as heating fuel in much of the state, is dirtier than natural gas.
‘We’re not hearing anybody anywhere in the nation say that we should use more fuel oil,’he said. ‘Nobody is saying switch from natural gas to fuel oil because it’s very clear in the (federal government’s) greenhouse gas inventory that natural gas reduces carbon.’
According to the sources Stanton used for her calculations, ‘Methane leaks from fuel oil and propane are negligible.’
Stanton’s calculations
Stanton reran Simollardes’calculations to include methane emissions throughout the life cycle of natural gas, which includes all of the processes from extraction through distribution.
The reason methane is important to the calculations, she said, is that ‘over the first 20 years after emission to the atmosphere, each pound of methane has a 72 times greater impact on global warming than a pound of CO2.’
For her calculations, Stanton used data from four studies included in a World Resources Institute report to determine the average amount of natural gas leaked into the environment during its life cycle. She settled on a leak rate of 3 percent of every 100 thousand cubic feet of natural gas consumed, and she included methane in her equation.
‘I found that the 2016 net CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) emissions from the Addison Pipeline expansion would be higher than the levels she projected by approximated 21,000 short tons CO2-e per year,’Stanton said. ‘As a result of this correction, Ms. Simollardes’estimate of a 13,000 short ton reduction should be revised to an expected 8,100 short ton net increase in emissions from the project per year.’
Over 100 years, she estimated the expansion project would add a total of 981,000 short tons.
Sandy Levine is a senior attorney for the Conservation Law Foundation. She says there are positives to the proposed project, but not all of the costs are being accounted for.
‘The project provides an alternative fuel source for a number of Vermonters, and, at the moment, it would provide a lower cost fuel source for many Vermonters,’she said. ‘But that’s not the end of the story. As with any power source, the complete impacts need to be evaluated and addressed and that’s not what has been done here. VTGas is presenting a far too simplistic evaluation and claiming only benefits.’
Jon Erickson is a professor of ecological economics and the interim dean of the Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources at the University of Vermont. He argued in Conservation Law Foundation testimony to the Public Service Board that the proposal presents ‘long-term economic risk’to Addison County.
‘The Addison Natural Gas Project exposes the Vermont economy and, in particular, new communities serviced in Addison County and beyond to long-term supply, price, and regulatory risk,’he said.
VTGas and low CO2 emissions
VTGas’Wark says that Stanton’s analysis doesn’t jibe with well-established emissions data.
‘While natural gas production is at an all-time high, energy-related carbon emissions are at their lowest since 1994,’he said. ‘Since 1990, methane from natural gas systems has declined by 10 percent and continues to decline.’
The U.S. Energy Information Administration attributes lower carbon dioxide emissions to the low price of natural gas, ‘which shifted power generation from the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel (coal) to the least carbon-intensive fossil fuel (natural gas),’ as the administration notes.
Wark said that VTGas acknowledges the concerns of the Conservation Law Foundation and indicated that the utility would release a more complete analysis in the near future.
‘We’ll be introducing evidence that will answer these questions clearly, and we’re confident natural gas will be shown to be very environmentally positive,’he said.