The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that on a seasonally adjusted basis, the state economy added 2,500 more jobs in the month of July. The seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for July 2012 increased by three-tenths of a percent from the prior month, to 5.0%, placing Vermont as the 5th lowest unemployment rate in the nation. The national unemployment rate increased by one-tenth of one percent to 8.3 percent over the same time period. The rise in Vermont’s unemployment rate was consistent with the regional trend as other northeastern states also saw increases to their unemployment rates.
‘While the survey of Vermont households reported some economic weakness, we were still encouraged by Vermont businesses reporting increases in the employment numbers. The strength and diversity of the state’s economy is highlighted in the July employment numbers, where construction, financial activities and leisure and hospitality all posted notable over-the-month job growth. These industries hire for a wide range of skills which we believe are available within our Vermont workforce, which should be encouraging to job seekers. VDOL is continuing our outreach to Vermont employers to inventory and post all available job openings, and we continue to support individual and employer-based training programs which continue to prepare Vermont workers for current and future skill demands. The Department can provide the most comprehensive approach to connecting Vermont employers with qualified job seekers. Our local career resource offices are located in 12 regions of the state to serve Vermonters’, said Labor Commissioner Annie Noonan.
State of Vermont Overview
The Vermont seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by three-tenths of a percent to 5.0 percent in July. The comparable rate for the United States increased one-tenth of a percent to 8.3 percent. The seasonally adjusted Vermont data for July show the Vermont total labor force declined by 1,000 from the June estimates. Total employment decreased by 2,100 while total unemployment increased by 1,100; both of these over the month changes were statistically significant.
July unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 3.5 percent in Hartford to 6.9 percent in Newport (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted). For comparison, the July unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 5.3 percent which reflects an increase of two-tenths of a percent from the June level and a decline of one-tenth of a percent from a year ago.
Analysis of Job Changes by Industry
The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’jobs estimates for July show a decrease of 5,100 jobs when compared to the revised June numbers. This reported over-the-month change does not include the 450 job increase between the preliminary and the revised June estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the changes between July 2012 and July 2011. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not seasonally adjusted’July data, Total Private Industries have increased by 2.2 percent (5,550 jobs) and Government has increased by 1.3 percent (550 jobs) within the last year.
The seasonally adjusted data for July reports an increase of 2,500 jobs from the revised June data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’data, this over-the-month change is from the revised June numbers which experienced an upward revision from the preliminary estimates by 600 jobs. A review of the seasonally adjusted over-the-month changes in July reflects employment increases across ownership types; Private Industries and Total Government both reported increases (1,800 and 700 jobs, respectively). In percentage terms, Leisure & Hospitality (1,000 jobs or 3.0 percent), Financial Activities (300 jobs or 2.5 percent) and Construction (300 jobs or 2.2 percent) reported notable increases from the prior month.
For details, please contact Mathew Barewicz, Labor Market Information Chief at the Vermont Department of Labor at 802-828-4153 or [email protected]
Vermont Labor Force Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted)
Changes From
July
2012
June
2012
July
2011
June
2012
July
2011
Total Labor Force
357,000
358,000
357,700
-1,000
-700
Employment
339,100
341,200
337,600
-2,100
1,500
Unemployment
18,000
16,900
20,200
1,100
-2,200
Rate (%)
5.0
4.7
5.6
0.3
-0.6
Vermont’s labor force, employment and unemployment statistics are produced from a combination of a Statewide survey of households and statistical modeling. The data are produced by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program (LAUS) a cooperative program with the US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Vermont Department of Labor.
Vermont Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Employment in Thousands
BY NAICS
Prelim.
Revised
Revised
Change From:
% Change From:
Jul-12
Jun-12
Jul-11
Jun-12
Jul-11
Jun-12
Jul-11
Total - Nonfarm
305.3
302.8
299.3
2.5
6.0
0.8
2.0
Private Industries
252.2
250.4
246.7
1.8
5.5
0.7
2.2
Construction
13.8
13.5
13.6
0.3
0.2
2.2
1.5
Manufacturing
31.3
31.2
31.5
0.1
-0.2
0.3
-0.6
Durable Goods
22.1
22.0
22.3
0.1
-0.2
0.5
-0.9
Non-Durable Goods
9.2
9.2
9.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
56.8
57.0
56.4
-0.2
0.4
-0.4
0.7
Wholesale Trade
9.7
9.6
9.7
0.1
0.0
1.0
0.0
Retail Trade
38.7
39.1
37.8
-0.4
0.9
-1.0
2.4
Trans., Warehousing & Utilities
8.4
8.3
8.9
0.1
-0.5
1.2
-5.6
Financial Activities
12.1
11.8
12.2
0.3
-0.1
2.5
-0.8
Finance & Insurance
9.1
8.9
9.2
0.2
-0.1
2.2
-1.1
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
3.0
2.9
3.0
0.1
0.0
3.4
0.0
Professional & Business Services
26.9
27.1
24.8
-0.2
2.1
-0.7
8.5
Professional., Scientific & Technical
15.0
15.0
13.6
0.0
1.4
0.0
10.3
Administrative Support & Waste
10.3
10.4
9.8
-0.1
0.5
-1.0
5.1
Education & Health Services
61.7
61.4
60.1
0.3
1.6
0.5
2.7
Private Ed. Services
13.3
13.1
13.0
0.2
0.3
1.5
2.3
Health Care & Social Assistance
48.4
48.3
47.1
0.1
1.3
0.2
2.8
Leisure & Hospitality
33.9
32.9
32.6
1.0
1.3
3.0
4.0
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
3.7
3.7
3.9
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-5.1
Accommodation & Food Services
30.2
29.2
28.7
1.0
1.5
3.4
5.2
Other Services
10.0
9.8
9.7
0.2
0.3
2.0
3.1
Total Government
53.1
52.4
52.6
0.7
0.5
1.3
1.0
State Government
17.6
17.6
17.2
0.0
0.4
0.0
2.3
Local Government
28.7
28.9
28.5
-0.2
0.2
-0.7
0.7
Burlington-S. Burlington MSA
Total - Nonfarm
115.2
115.7
113.3
-0.5
1.9
-0.4
1.7
Notes: Statewide Total Nonfarm is a summed total. Finance & Insurance and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing have been added as a seasonally adjusted series in 2012.
Mining & Logging and Information are not published seasonally adjusted because the seasonal component, which is small relative to the trend-cycle and irregular components, cannot be separated with sufficient precision.
Program Update: Starting with the March 2011 numbers, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) estimates transitioned from the VT Department of Labor to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS implemented several methodological changes to standardize the estimation approach across states. While these changes will reduce the potential for statistical bias in state and metropolitan area estimates, they may increase the month to month variability of the estimates. More information is available on the BLS website at http://www.bls.gov/sae/cesprocs.htm.
Current Employment Statistics Program (CES). Produced by the Vermont Department of Labor in cooperation with the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics.
ESTIMATED NONFARM EMPLOYMENT IN VERMONT
(Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Prelim
Revised
Revised
Changes From:
% Changes From:
INDUSTRY BY NAICS
Jul-12
Jun-12
Jul-11
Jun-12
Jul-11
Jun-12
Jul-11
TOTAL NONFARM
299,050
304,150
292,950
-5,100
6,100
-1.7%
2.1%
TOTAL PRIVATE
255,800
252,500
250,250
3,300
5,550
1.3%
2.2%
GOODS PRODUCING
48,150
47,300
48,000
850
150
1.8%
0.3%
MANUFACTURING
31,450
31,500
31,550
-50
-100
-0.2%
-0.3%
Durable Goods
22,150
22,200
22,250
-50
-100
-0.2%
-0.4%
Computer & Electrical Equipment Mfg.
8,250
8,250
8,400
0
-150
0.0%
-1.8%
Fabricated Metal Products Mfg.
2,450
2,500
2,300
-50
150
-2.0%
6.5%
Non-Durable Goods
9,300
9,300
9,300
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
Food Mfg.
4,450
4,450
4,400
0
50
0.0%
1.1%
CONSTRUCTION
15,850
14,950
15,650
900
200
6.0%
1.3%
MINING & LOGGING
850
850
800
0
50
0.0%
6.3%
SERVICE-PROVIDING
250,900
256,850
244,950
-5,950
5,950
-2.3%
2.4%
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION AND UTILITIES
56,900
57,650
56,600
-750
300
-1.3%
0.5%
Wholesale Trade
9,700
9,650
9,700
50
0
0.5%
0.0%
Retail Trade
38,950
39,500
38,100
-550
850
-1.4%
2.2%
Food & Beverage Stores
10,200
10,150
10,150
50
50
0.5%
0.5%
General Merchandise Store
3,000
3,050
3,100
-50
-100
-1.6%
-3.2%
Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities
8,250
8,500
8,800
-250
-550
-2.9%
-6.3%
Utilities
1,750
1,750
1,850
0
-100
0.0%
-5.4%
Transportation & Warehousing
6,500
6,750
6,950
-250
-450
-3.7%
-6.5%
INFORMATION
4,900
4,950
5,000
-50
-100
-1.0%
-2.0%
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES
12,200
12,050
12,350
150
-150
1.2%
-1.2%
Finance & Insurance
9,150
9,050
9,250
100
-100
1.1%
-1.1%
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
3,050
3,000
3,100
50
-50
1.7%
-1.6%
PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES
27,400
27,650
25,300
-250
2,100
-0.9%
8.3%
Professional, Scientific and Technical
15,100
15,250
13,700
-150
1,400
-1.0%
10.2%
Administrative, Support and Waste
10,700
10,800
10,150
-100
550
-0.9%
5.4%
EDUCATIONAL AND HEALTH SERVICES
61,200
60,500
59,600
700
1,600
1.2%
2.7%
Educational Services
12,350
12,150
12,100
200
250
1.6%
2.1%
College, Universities and Professional
6,650
6,500
6,600
150
50
2.3%
0.8%
Health Care and Social Assistance
48,850
48,350
47,500
500
1,350
1.0%
2.8%
Ambulatory Health Care Services
15,750
15,500
15,500
250
250
1.6%
1.6%
Hospitals
12,800
12,850
12,700
-50
100
-0.4%
0.8%
Nursing and Residential Care Facilities
7,150
7,100
7,050
50
100
0.7%
1.4%
LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY
34,850
32,450
33,550
2,400
1,300
7.4%
3.9%
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
4,550
4,150
4,700
400
-150
9.6%
-3.2%
Accommodation and Food Services
30,300
28,300
28,850
2,000
1,450
7.1%
5.0%
Accommodations
12,450
10,950
10,050
1,500
2,400
13.7%
23.9%
Hotels & Motels
10,200
9,300
8,950
900
1,250
9.7%
14.0%
Food Services and Drinking Places
17,850
17,350
18,800
500
-950
2.9%
-5.1%
OTHER SERVICES
10,200
9,950
9,850
250
350
2.5%
3.6%
GOVERNMENT
43,250
51,650
42,700
-8,400
550
-16.3%
1.3%
Federal Government
6,450
6,400
6,500
50
-50
0.8%
-0.8%
State Government Education
7,000
6,950
6,550
50
450
0.7%
6.9%
Local Government Education
12,600
21,350
12,600
-8,750
0
-41.0%
0.0%
Other State Government
9,000
9,000
9,050
0
-50
0.0%
-0.6%
Other Local Government
8,200
7,950
8,000
250
200
3.1%
2.5%
Note: CES PROGRAM DATA ARE PRDUCED IN COOPERATION WITH THE U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
ESTIMATES ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO REVISION. SEE ANNUAL SUMMARY FOR DETAILS
VERMONT LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LABOR MARKET AREAS BY RESIDENCE (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
July 2012 Estimates
Total
Number
Number
Jul-12
Jun-12
Jul-11
Area
Labor Force
Employed
Unemployed
Rate (%)
Rate (%)
Rate (%)
Barre-Montpelier
29,100
27,550
1,550
5.4
4.9
5.6
Bennington
12,700
11,900
800
6.4
6.0
6.9
Bradford
4,850
4,550
300
5.9
5.9
6.5
Brattleboro
24,950
23,650
1,300
5.2
5.1
5.4
Burlington-South Burlington
118,000
112,600
5,400
4.6
4.4
4.7
Hartford
19,550
18,850
700
3.5
3.4
3.5
Manchester
12,150
11,450
700
5.8
5.8
6.1
Middlebury
18,800
17,850
1,000
5.2
5.0
5.1
Morristown-Stowe
20,900
19,750
1,100
5.3
5.3
5.4
Newport
14,450
13,450
1,000
6.9
7.0
7.4
Randolph
8,750
8,300
500
5.5
5.1
6.5
Rutland
26,500
24,750
1,750
6.7
6.5
6.4
Springfield
11,650
10,950
750
6.3
6.2
6.8
St. Johnsbury
14,850
13,950
900
6.1
6.0
6.1
Swanton-Enosburg
14,400
13,550
800
5.6
5.1
6.0
Warren-Waitsfield
4,100
3,900
200
4.3
4.1
4.0
Woodstock
3,700
3,550
150
4.1
4.3
4.4
Vermont Total
361,700
342,700
19,000
5.3
5.1
5.4
Note: Unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed divided by total labor force and expressed as a percent. The unemployment rates displayed here may not match calculated estimates due to rounding.
Source: Vermont Department of Labor LAUS program in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics