The chief executives of Vermont’s leading businesses appear poised to maintain their growth plans through early 2012, echoing results from the previous survey. The survey was completed between September 8 and September 22 and released today by Vermont Business Roundtable Chair Steve Voigt, CEO, King Arthur Flour and President Lisa Ventriss.
According to Roundtable President, Lisa Ventriss, ‘When viewed in the aggregate, these results point to an economy that is expecting to grow, albeit very slowly. The effects of Tropical Storm Irene and the potential threat of a ‘double dip’ recession are, naturally, causes of great concern to our members. The good news is that 95 percent of CEO respondents expect to see their sales volumes increase or stay the same in the coming six months, which is consistent with the previous survey, and good news for Vermont products and services. Also encouraging news is that 90 percent of CEOs expect to maintain or grow in the size of their workforce through the fall and winter, again consistent with the previous survey results.
Chair Steve Voigt said ‘Roundtable members are reflecting the reality that we live in strained economic times. Companies have worked very hard to control costs and pump money back into their businesses, which is why we are now seeing almost 60 percent of members with no future changes in capital spending. Those dollars have been invested already. Now, if they plan to grow, they will do it through investing in their workforces.’
The Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey provides a forward-looking view of the economic assumptions and attitudes of chief executive officers of 118 of the state’s top employers with an aggregate economic impact of $292 billion, with over $1.8 billion in corporate philanthropy, and employing more than 10 percent of the state’s workforce. The members represent Vermont’s agriculture, construction, education, health services, finance, real estate, insurance, hospitality/leisure, manufacturing, information, utilities, professional/business services, wholesale trade, and non-profit industries.
The response rate for this quarter was 52 percent. Historically, rates have varied from 35 to 73 percent.
1. How do you expect your company’s sales to change in the next six months?
Sales
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
83%
13%
4%
Q2 2004
80%
15%
4%
Q3 2004
71%
25%
4%
Q4 2004
77%
22%
1%
Q1 2005
78%
19%
3%
Q2 2005
75%
23%
2%
Q3 2005
74%
24%
2%
Q4 2005
72%
24%
4%
Q1 2006
78%
20%
2%
Q2 2006
78%
22%
0%
Q3 2006
69%
25%
6%
Q4 2006
73%
23%
4%
Q3 2008
51%
35%
14%
Q4 2008
27%
46%
27%
Q1 2009
33%
30%
37%
Q2 2009
41%
31%
28%
Q3 2009
34%
49%
17%
Q1 2010
63%
19%
18%
Q2 2010
69%
24%
7%
Q3 2010
59%
35%
6%
Q4 2010
71%
23%
6%
Q1 2011
73%
19%
8%
Q2 2011
61%
34%
5%
Q3 2011
62%
33
5
Point change from Q2 to Q3
1
-1
0
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
2. How do you expect your company’s capital spending to change in the next six months?
Capital
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
62%
30%
8%
Q2 2004
43%
41%
15%
Q3 2004
51%
42%
7%
Q4 2004
45%
46%
9%
Q1 2005
55%
37%
8%
Q2 2005
49%
43%
8%
Q3 2005
57%
38%
5%
Q4 2005
50%
35%
15%
Q1 2006
45%
45%
10%
Q2 2006
53%
40%
7%
Q3 2006
40%
50%
10%
Q4 2006
56%
39%
5%
Q3 2008
38%
42%
20%
Q4 2008
17 %
43%
40%
Q1 2009
12%
38%
50%
Q2 2009
17%
51%
32%
Q3 2009
31%
46%
23%
Q1 2010
50%
42%
8%
Q2 2010
51%
38%
11%
Q3 2010
37%
48%
15%
Q4 2010
49%
34%
17%
Q1 2011
47%
38%
15%
Q2 2011
46%
44%
10%
Q3 2011
39%
58
3%
Point change from Q2 to Q3
-7
14
-7
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
3. How do you expect your company’s employment to change in the next six months?
Employment
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
57%
38%
4%
Q2 2004
50%
48%
2%
Q3 2004
59%
37%
4%
Q4 2004
58%
39%
3%
Q1 2005
55%
38%
7%
Q2 2005
49%
42%
9%
Q3 2005
49%
44%
7%
Q4 2005
60%
35%
5%
Q1 2006
54%
39%
7%
Q2 2006
50%
45%
5%
Q3 2006
43%
49%
7%
Q4 2006
53%
41%
5%
Q3 2008
40%
42%
18%
Q4 2008
25%
35%
40%
Q1 2009
23%
37%
40%
Q2 2009
21%
50%
29%
Q3 2009
34%
46%
20%
Q1 2010
40%
52%
8%
Q2 2010
46%
45%
9%
Q3 2010
35%
52%
13%
Q4 2010
51%
38%
11%
Q1 2011
44%
41%
VBR 9.29.2011
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