The Vermont Department of Labor announced today the seasonally adjusted statewide unemployment rate for February 2011 was 5.6 percent. This reflects the second straight month of a decrease of one-tenth of a percentage point to the statewide rate (i.e. the January unemployment rate was 5.7 percent) and a decrease of one and one-tenth of a percentage point from a year ago, February 2010. This is the lowest rate since November 2008. The US rate was down to 8.9 percent. Vermont had the fifth lowest rate in the nation (see table below).
Looking back over recent years’ data, the last increase in the seasonally adjusted Vermont unemployment rate was in April 2009. At that time the rate was 7.3 percent. Since then the statewide unemployment rate has trended down to its current level of 5.6 percent.
On another note of interest, February 2011 data marks a new all-time high for the size of the Vermont labor force. For the past few months, the Vermont economy has reported a positive trend in both the total labor force and total employment.
‘These numbers are encouraging even though Vermont is still experiencing the effects of elevated unemployment and under-employment compared to its long term economic history. The Department of Labor is hopeful for positive news regarding Congressional decisions on the workforce development and training money that Vermont is hoping to receive in federal programs such as Workforce Investment Act, Youth Employment and Dislocated Worker programs,’ said Annie Noonan, Commissioner of the Vermont Department of Labor.
Analysis of Job Changes by Industry
The preliminary ‘not seasonally adjusted’ jobs numbers for February show an increase of 3,250 jobs when compared to the revised January numbers. This reported over the month change does not include the 350 job decrease between the preliminary and the revised January estimates due to the inclusion of more data. As detailed in the preliminary not seasonally adjusted February data, Total Private reports an increase of 1,500 jobs and Government reports an increase of 1,750 jobs. In the private sector, the industry with the largest nominal increase was Education & Health Services with 1,300 jobs. Construction reported the largest nominal decline (-600 jobs) in the not seasonally adjusted data. Based on the preliminary February data, the annual rate of unadjusted job growth was a positive 2.8 percent.
The seasonally adjusted data for February reports an increase of 500 jobs from the revised January data. As with the ‘not seasonally adjusted’ data, this over the month change is from the revised January numbers which experienced a downward revision from the preliminary estimates (-300 jobs). A review of the seasonally adjusted February numbers shows Vermont’s Private Industries with a job increase of 600 jobs. Education & Health Services (+700 jobs) and Professional & Business Services (+600 jobs) reported the largest job gains. Leisure & Hospitality (-800 jobs) and Manufacturing (-200 jobs) reported the largest job declines. Total Government decreased by 100 jobs from the revised January counts.
State of Vermont Overview
Vermont’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased one tenth of a percent to 5.6 percent in February. The underlying data showed increases to the labor force (+1,100) and total employment (+1,500) combined with a decrease to total unemployment (-500). For comparison purposes, the United States seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for February showed a one tenth of a percent decrease to 8.9 percent.
February unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 3.8 percent in Warren-Waitsfield to 9.7 percent in Newport. Local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. For comparison, the February unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 6.0 percent, which was three-tenths of a percentage point lower than the revised January data and down one and three-tenths of a percentage point from a year ago.
For details, please contact Mathew Barewicz at the Vermont Department of Labor at 802-828-4153 or [email protected]
Vermont Labor Force Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted)
Changes From
February
2011
January
2011
February
2010
January
2011
February
2010
Total Labor Force
363,600
362,500
360,600
1,100
3,000
Employment
343,300
341,800
336,500
1,500
6,800
Unemployment
20,300
20,800
24,100
-500
-3,800
Rate (%)
5.6
5.7
6.7
-0.1
-1.1
Vermont’s labor force, employment and unemployment statistics are produced from a combination of a Statewide survey of households and statistical modeling. The data are produced by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program (LAUS) a cooperative program with the US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Vermont Department of Labor.
Unemployment Rates for States
Unemployment Rates for States
Monthly Rankings
Seasonally Adjusted
Feb. 2011p
Rank
State
Rate
1
NORTH DAKOTA
3.7
2
NEBRASKA
4.3
3
SOUTH DAKOTA
4.8
4
NEW HAMPSHIRE
5.4
5
VERMONT
5.6
6
IOWA
6.1
7
WYOMING
6.2
8
HAWAII
6.3
9
VIRGINIA
6.4
10
OKLAHOMA
6.5
11
MINNESOTA
6.7
12
KANSAS
6.8
13
MARYLAND
7.1
14
MONTANA
7.4
14
WISCONSIN
7.4
16
MAINE
7.5
17
ALASKA
7.6
18
UTAH
7.7
19
ARKANSAS
7.8
20
LOUISIANA
7.9
21
PENNSYLVANIA
8.0
22
MASSACHUSETTS
8.2
22
NEW YORK
8.2
22
TEXAS
8.2
25
DELAWARE
8.5
26
NEW MEXICO
8.7
27
INDIANA
8.8
28
ILLINOIS
8.9
29
CONNECTICUT
9.0
30
WASHINGTON
9.1
31
NEW JERSEY
9.2
31
OHIO
9.2
33
ALABAMA
9.3
33
COLORADO
9.3
35
MISSOURI
9.4
35
WEST VIRGINIA
9.4
37
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
9.5
38
ARIZONA
9.6
38
TENNESSEE
9.6
40
IDAHO
9.7
40
NORTH CAROLINA
9.7
42
GEORGIA
10.2
42
MISSISSIPPI
10.2
42
OREGON
10.2
42
SOUTH CAROLINA
10.2
46
KENTUCKY
10.4
46
MICHIGAN
10.4
48
RHODE ISLAND
11.2
49
FLORIDA
11.5
50
CALIFORNIA
12.2
51
NEVADA
13.6
p = preliminary.
NOTE: Rates shown are a percentage of the labor force. Data refer to place of residence. Estimates for the current month are subject to revision the following month.
Vermont Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Employment in Thousands
BY NAICS
Prelim.
Revised
Revised
Change From:
% Change From:
Feb-11
Jan-11
Feb-10
Jan-11
Feb-10
Jan-11
Feb-10
Total - Nonfarm
304,100
303,600
295,800
500
8,300
0.2
2.8
Private Industries
249,900
249,300
241,300
600
8,600
0.2
3.6
Construction
13,700
13,700
13,500
0
200
0.0
1.5
Manufacturing
31,300
31,500
30,400
-200
900
-0.6
3.0
Durable Goods
22,300
22,400
21,400
-100
900
-0.4
4.2
Non-Durable Goods
9,000
9,100
9,000
-100
0
-1.1
0.0
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
56,900
56,600
55,400
300
1,500
0.5
2.7
Wholesale Trade
9,500
9,300
9,300
200
200
2.2
2.2
Retail Trade
39,000
38,900
37,700
100
1,300
0.3
3.4
Trans., Warehousing & Utilities
8,400
8,400
8,400
0
0
0.0
0.0
Financial Activities
12,500
12,500
12,200
0
300
0.0
2.5
Professional & Business Services
24,500
23,900
22,700
600
1,800
2.5
7.9
Professional., Scientific & Technical
14,500
14,100
13,400
400
1,100
2.8
8.2
Administrative Support & Waste
9,700
9,300
8,400
400
1,300
4.3
15.5
Education & Health Services
60,100
59,400
59,100
700
1,000
1.2
1.7
Private Ed. Services
12,800
12,700
12,600
100
200
0.8
1.6
Health Care & Social Assistance
47,300
46,700
46,500
600
800
1.3
1.7
Leisure & Hospitality
35,100
35,900
32,100
-800
3,000
-2.2
9.3
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
3,900
4,000
3,800
-100
100
-2.5
2.6
Accommodation & Food Services
31,200
31,900
28,300
-700
2,900
-2.2
10.2
Other Services
9,900
9,900
9,800
0
100
0.0
1.0
Total Government
54,200
54,300
54,500
-100
-300
-0.2
-0.6
State Government
17,500
17,400
17,500
100
0
0.6
0.0
Local Government
30,100
30,300
30,300
-200
-200
-0.7
-0.7
Burlington-S. Burlington MSA
Total - Nonfarm
114,400
113,100
111,300
1,300
3,100
1.1
2.8
Notes: Statewide Total Nonfarm is a summed total and Wholesale Trade has been added as a seasonally adjusted series in 2011.
Mining & Logging and Information are not published seasonally adjusted because the seasonal component, which is
small relative to the trend-cycle and irregular components, cannot be separated with sufficient precision.
Program Update: Beginning with the production of March 2011 preliminary Current Employment Statistics data, the not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted Statewide and Burlington-S. Burlington MSA will transition from the Vermont Department of Labor to the BLS. These data will be released on April 19th, 2011. Concurrent with this transition, the BLS will implement several methodological changes to standardize the estimation approach across States. While these changes will reduce the potential for statistical bias in state and metropolitan area estimates, they may increase the month to month variability of the estimates.
More detailed information on the changes to procedures for producing CES estimates is available on the BLS Web site at http://www.bls.gov/sae/cesprocs.htm.
Current Employment Statistics Program (CES). Produced by the Vermont Department of Labor in cooperation with the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics.
ESTIMATED NONFARM EMPLOYMENT IN VERMONT