Secretary of Administration Jeb Spaulding released the January 2011 General Fund Revenue
results today. January is the seventh month of fiscal year (FY) 2011. General Fund revenues
totaled $137.78 million for January 2011, and were -$1.61 million or -1.16% below the $139.39
million consensus revenue forecast for the month. Year to date, January revenues were $687.16
million or -0.23% below target. On a year-over-year basis, January 2011 GF results are 9.3%
ahead of the same period for the prior year (January 2010), but, are -2.26% below the FY 2008
results through January 2008.
‘While it is of note that revenues are ahead of where they were a year ago pretty much across the
board, the fact that January revenues in some key areas such as personal income, sales & use,
and rooms & meals were below forecast for the month is good reason for caution going
forward,’ Spaulding stated in characterizing the January results.
Revenue targets reflect the revised Fiscal Year 2011 Consensus Revenue Forecast approved by
the Emergency Board at their January 14, 2011 meeting. Statutorily, the State is required to
revise the Consensus Revenue Forecast two times per year, in January and July; the Emergency
Board may schedule interim revisions if deemed necessary.
Personal Income Tax (PI) receipts are the largest single state revenue source, and are reported Net-of-
Personal Income Tax refunds. Net Personal Income Tax is comprised of PI Withholding Tax, PI
Estimated Payments, PI Refunds Paid, and PI Other. Net Personal Income Tax receipts for January
were recorded at $73.61 million, or -$1.52 million or -2.02% below the recently revised monthly target
of $75.12 million.
Corporate Income Taxes for January are also reported net-of refunds. The January receipts were
recorded at $3.31 million, or +$0.82 million or +32.88% above the monthly target of $2.49 million.
The consumption taxes were below target for January: Sales & Use Tax receipts of $25.30
million fell short of the monthly target by -$1.45 million (-5.41%); Rooms & Meals Tax receipts
of $10.54 million fell short of target by -$0.72 million (-6.39%).
Secretary Spaulding noted that, ‘Although Corporate Tax receipts were ahead of target, the remaining
three of the four major revenue categories fell noticeably below target for January. Of particular
concern was the below target PI withholding tax sub-category which saw -$3.7 million less than the
recently revised target; these categories will be closely monitored throughout the spring tax filing
season.’ The Secretary continued by saying, ‘In addition, the below target results in both consumption
tax categories (Sales & Use, and Rooms & Meals) will be watched closely for the remainder of the
winter tourism season.’
The year to date results for the four major General Fund categories are as follows: Personal
Income Tax, $341.13 million (-0.44%); Sales & Use Tax, $132.53 million (-1.08%); Meals &
Rooms Tax, $73.77 million (-0.97%); and Corporate, $47.94 million (+1.74%).
The remaining tax components include Insurance, Inheritance & Estate Tax, Real Property
Transfer Tax, and ‘Other’ (which includes: Bank Franchise Tax, Telephone Tax, Liquor Tax,
Beverage Tax, Fees, and Other Taxes). The results for the month of January were as follows:
Insurance Tax, $0.44 million (-44.71%); Estate Tax, $13.54 million (+11.79%); Property
Transfer Tax, $1.08 million (+60.65%); and ‘Other’, $9.96 million (-2.22%). Year to date
results for these categories were: Insurance Tax, $17.89 million (-1.96%); Estate Tax, $19.22
million (+8.02%); Property Transfer Tax, $5.21 million (+8.50%); and ‘Other’, $47.18 million
(-5.08%).
Transportation Fund
Secretary Spaulding also reported on the results for the non-dedicated Transportation Fund
Revenue for January. Total non-dedicated Transportation Fund receipts of $16.60 million for the
month were above target by +$0.76 million (+4.83%), against the monthly target of $15.83
million. The year to date non-dedicated Transportation revenue was $121.21 million versus the
target of $120.45 million (+$0.76 million, +0.63%).
Individual Transportation Fund revenue receipts components for January were: Gasoline Tax,
$5.15 million or -0.66% behind target; Diesel Tax, $1.62 million or +20.08% ahead of target;
Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $3.54 million or +10.68% above target; Motor Vehicle
Fees, $4.70 million or +0.71% above target; and Other Fees, $1.58 million or +10.72% in excess
of the monthly target. The January year to date Transportation Fund revenue results were:
Gasoline Tax, $36.77 million or -0.09% short of target, Diesel Tax, $8.99 million or +3.11%
above target; Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $27.92 million or +1.24% ahead of target;
Motor Vehicle Fees, $37.91 million or +0.09% above target; and Other Fees, $9.62 million or
+1.62% above target.
Secretary Spaulding also reported on the results for the Transportation Infrastructure Bond Fund
(’TIB’). TIB Fund Gas receipts for January were $1.32 million or -5.50% below target; year to
date receipts of $9.63 million were -0.79% short of target. TIB Fund Diesel receipts were $0.21
million or +22.28% above the target for the month; year to date TIB Diesel receipts were $1.08
million or 3.62% ahead of the target. TIB Fund receipts are noted below the following table:
Education Fund
The ‘non-Property Tax’ Education Fund revenues (which constitute approximately 11.9% of the
total Education Fund sources) were released today by Secretary Spaulding. The non-Property
Tax Education Fund receipts for January totaled $15.84 million, or -$1.07 million (-6.34%) short
of the $16.92 million target for the month. Year to date Education Fund revenues were $90.81
million or -1.07% behind the year to date target of $91.89 million.
The individual Education Fund revenue component results for January were: Sales & Use Tax, $12.65
million, or -5.41% below target; Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $1.77 million or +10.68%; Lottery
Transfer, $1.42 million or -26.22%; and Education Fund Interest, under $0.01 million against a target of
$0.02 million (-76.20%). Year-to-date results were: Sales & Use Tax, $66.26 million or -1.08%; Motor
Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $13.96 million or +1.24%; Lottery Transfer, $10.56 million or -4.55%;
and Education Fund Interest, $0.03 against a target of $0.05 million (-35.47%).
Conclusion
Secretary Spaulding concluded, ‘The national economy continues to improve slowly, while
Vermont’s economic picture is mixed, particularly as it relates to slow job growth. The current
month’s GF results mean that we will continue to be cautious and closely monitor the upcoming
tax filing results; the next eight weeks will be pivotal if the GF revenue is to achieve target in the
second half of FY 2011.’
Source: Spaulding's office. 2.16.2011