The chief executives of Vermont’s leading businesses appear poised to hold steady for the spring and summer months of 2011, when compared against the previous survey period. The survey was completed between April 1 and April 15 and released today by Vermont Business Roundtable Chair Steve Voigt, CEO, King Arthur Flour and President Lisa Ventriss.
According to Roundtable President, Lisa Ventriss, ‘Overall, these data show an economy that is taking its breath and assuming a ‘wait and see’ posture. The most positive growth indicator continues to be our members’ sales forecasts which showed a slight uptick over the previous period (73 percent compared to 71 percent). And while a plurality of our members are forecasting growth outlooks for capital expenditures and employment levels, (47 percent and 44 percent, respectively), another segment of members is projecting no change in those indicators from the previous quarter (38 percent and 41 percent, respectively),Ventriss said.
Chair Steve Voigt said ‘We believe that these data also reflect a hesitation among our CEOs that is related to the current debate around health care reform in Vermont and the nation. We polled our members on this topic and found it to be a major source of concern; there are still many cost-related reform questions yet to be answered, and this makes future investment decisions regarding people or plant difficult to make at best. We must remember that while growth indicators have been trending upward nicely since early 2009, these changes are still fragile.’
The Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey provides a forward-looking view of the economic assumptions and attitudes of chief executive officers for 120 of the state’s top employers with an aggregate economic impact of $135 billion and employing 15 percent of the state’s workforce. The members represent Vermont’s agriculture, construction, education, health services, finance, real estate, insurance, hospitality/leisure, manufacturing, information, utilities, professional/business services, wholesale trade, and non-profit industries. The response rate for this quarter was 58 percent. Historically, rates have varied from 35 to 73 percent.
1. How do you expect your company’s sales to change in the next six months?
Sales
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
83%
13%
4%
Q2 2004
80%
15%
4%
Q3 2004
71%
25%
4%
Q4 2004
77%
22%
1%
Q1 2005
78%
19%
3%
Q2 2005
75%
23%
2%
Q3 2005
74%
24%
2%
Q4 2005
72%
24%
4%
Q1 2006
78%
20%
2%
Q2 2006
78%
22%
0%
Q3 2006
69%
25%
6%
Q4 2006
73%
23%
4%
Q3 2008
51%
35%
14%
Q4 2008
27%
46%
27%
Q1 2009
33%
30%
37%
Q2 2009
41%
31%
28%
Q3 2009
34%
49%
17%
Q1 2010
63%
19%
18%
Q2 2010
69%
24%
7%
Q3 2010
59%
35%
6%
Q4 2010
71%
23%
6%
Q1 2011
73%
19%
8%
% change from Q4/10 to Q1/11
2%
-4%
2%
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
2. How do you expect your company’s capital spending to change in the next six months?
Capital
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
62%
30%
8%
Q2 2004
43%
41%
15%
Q3 2004
51%
42%
7%
Q4 2004
45%
46%
9%
Q1 2005
55%
37%
8%
Q2 2005
49%
43%
8%
Q3 2005
57%
38%
5%
Q4 2005
50%
35%
15%
Q1 2006
45%
45%
10%
Q2 2006
53%
40%
7%
Q3 2006
40%
50%
10%
Q4 2006
56%
39%
5%
Q3 2008
38%
42%
20%
Q4 2008
17 %
43%
40%
Q1 2009
12%
38%
50%
Q2 2009
17%
51%
32%
Q3 2009
31%
46%
23%
Q1 2010
50%
42%
8%
Q2 2010
51%
38%
11%
Q3 2010
37%
48%
15%
Q4 2010
49%
34%
17%
Q1 2011
47%
38%
15%
% Change from Q4/10 to Q1/11
-2%
4%
-2%
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
3. How do you expect your company’s employment to change in the next six months?
Employment
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
57%
38%
4%
Q2 2004
50%
48%
2%
Q3 2004
59%
37%
4%
Q4 2004
58%
39%
3%
Q1 2005
55%
38%
7%
Q2 2005
49%
42%
9%
Q3 2005
49%
44%
7%
Q4 2005
60%
35%
5%
Q1 2006
54%
39%
7%
Q2 2006
50%
45%
5%
Q3 2006
43%
49%
7%
Q4 2006
53%
41%
5%
Q3 2008
40%
42%
18%
Q4 2008
25%
35%
40%
Q1 2009
23%
37%
40%
Q2 2009
21%
50%
29%
Q3 2009
34%
46%
20%
Q1 2010
40%
52%
8%
Q2 2010
46%
45%
9%
Q3 2010
35%
52%
13%
Q4 2010
51%
38%
11%
Q1 2011
44%
41%
15%
% Change from Q4/10 to Q1/11
-7%
3%
4%
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
The Roundtable is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization of 120 CEOs of Vermont's top private and nonprofit employers, representing geographic diversity and all major sectors of the Vermont economy, with an aggregate economic impact of $135 billion and employing 15 percent of the state’s workforce. The Roundtable is committed to sustaining a sound economy and preserving Vermont’s unique quality of life by studying and making recommendations on statewide public policy issues.
Source: VBR. 4.18.2011