The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for April 2010 was 6.4 percent, down two tenths from the revised March rate and down eight tenths from a year ago.
The unemployment rate trends continue to point to overall improvement in the labor market said Patricia Moulton Powden, Commissioner of the Vermont Department of Labor. Our household survey shows increasing numbers of working Vermonters and a decline in the number of unemployed. However, the jobs survey showed a decline of 1,900 jobs over the month. We believe the jobs survey is over-estimating this decline. We may see some correction in the unemployment rate when the April numbers are finalized. This volatility in monthly numbers can be expected during periods of economic recovery. Coupled with changes in methodology on the federal level, the numbers continue to point to the need to put more weight on trends versus a single month. And in Vermont, the trends continue to be positive.
Seasonal Job Growth
The total job loss in April is larger than what we have seen over the last several years. Leisure and Hospitality was the largest contributor to the overall loss down 6,950 jobs over the month. It appears the model s estimate of jobs in this sector for earlier months may have been too strong causing the April decline to be greater than expected. However, most sectors gained jobs over the month, but not enough to off-set the loss in Leisure & Hospitality.
Manufacturing posted an unexpected gain of 700 jobs; most of the gain was confined to Durable Goods Manufacturing. Construction added 1,200 jobs as warmer weather boosted payrolls. Administrative Support & Waste added 550 jobs, and was mostly attributed to seasonal influences. Health Care & Social Assistance grew by 600 jobs, with all subsectors showing growth in April. Due in part to the hiring of temporary Census workers, Federal Government added 300 jobs
The annual rate of unadjusted job growth is also now at -1.0%. Though down slightly from March, the annual change has been improving over the last several months.
When seasonally adjusted, April payroll jobs declined by 1,900 jobs or -0.6 percent over March. The declines were fairly widespread with losses in Construction, (-700 or -5.7%), Professional, Scientific & Technical (-300 or -2.3%) and Leisure & Hospitality, (-2,500 or -7.4%). Manufacturing added 600 jobs since March, the vast majority in Durable Goods Mfg. (+500 or 2.3%). Education & Health Services grew (+ 600 or +1.0%) and Government was up 300 jobs, due in part to hiring temporary Census workers.
Employment Growth
Vermont s April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell by two tenths of a point to 6.4 percent as a result of an increase of an estimated 600 employed and a drop of 800 in the number of those unemployed. For comparison purposes, the US seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for April was 9.9 percent, up of two tenths from March.
Vermont Labor Force Statistics
Seasonally Adjusted
Change to
Apr. 2010 from
Apr.
2010
Mar.
2010
Apr.
2009
Mar.
2010
Apr.
2009
Total Labor Force
362,200
362,400
361,300
-200
900
Employment
339,200
338,600
335,200
600
4,000
Unemployment
23,000
23,800
26,100
-800
-3,100
Rate
6.4%
6.6%
7.2%
-0.2
-0.8
April unemployment rates for Vermont s 17 labor market areas (see chart below) ranged from 4.5 percent in Hartford to 9.7 percent in Newport. Local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. For comparison, the April unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 6.7 percent, down six tenths of a point from March and down nine tenths of a point from a year ago. The level of unadjusted unemployment was statistically significant from the March value.
Annual Benchmark Revision
Each year in January we perform a benchmark revision of the CES (Current Employment Statistics) job counts and the LAUS (Local Areal Unemployment Statistics) employment and unemployment estimates. In the case of CES, we replace survey data with actual job counts from our Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) through the third quarter of 2009 and then we re-estimate fourth quarter 2009 jobs using this new information. Since CES job counts are part of the LAUS unemployment model, we also revise the household unemployment series for the year.
This year our CES and LAUS revisions were much larger than normal, partly because of the rapidly changing economy and partly due to methodology changes imposed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that had the impact of overestimating job loss in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. This, in turn, had the impact of overestimating our unemployment rate for the first two quarters of 2009.
As we continue to highlight, we can expect small sample states like Vermont to exhibit a higher degree of variability in month to month job estimates in the CES program. As a result of this change in methodology, caution should be used in interpreting a single month s results. CES payroll job numbers are now best understood in the context of their movement over several months as opposed to observed changes in a single month estimate.
Starting in January 2010 the LAUS program unemployment estimates have included a new statistical smoothing component that should reduce unexplainable short term large increases and decreases in the state s unemployment rate.
Source: Vermont Department of Labor. 5.21.2010
VERMONT LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LABOR MARKET AREAS BY RESIDENCE (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
April 2010 Estimates
Total
Number
Number
Apr-10
Mar-10
Apr-09
Area
Labor Force
Employed
Unemployed
Rate (%)
Rate (%)
Rate (%)
Barre-Montpelier
29,700
27,700
2,000
6.7
7.8
7.3
Bennington
13,200
12,200
950
7.3
7.9
9.4
Bradford
4,900
4,500
400
8.2
10.0
8.8
Brattleboro
24,450
22,750
1,700
6.9
6.5
7.3
Burlington-South Burlington
113,700
107,750
6,000
5.3
6.0
6.3
Hartford
19,850
18,950
900
4.5
5.3
5.0
Manchester
11,800
10,800
1,000
8.4
7.7
9.5
Middlebury
18,000
16,750
1,250
7.0
8.1
7.4
Morristown-Stowe
20,250
18,600
1,650
8.2
8.6
9.0
Newport
14,100
12,700
1,350
9.7
11.3
10.9
Randolph
8,800
8,100
700
8.0
8.6
8.9
Rutland
27,300
25,100
2,200
8.0
7.7
9.0
Springfield
12,400
11,350
1,050
8.4
7.5
9.0
St. Johnsbury
14,750
13,650
1,100
7.4
8.3
9.7
Swanton-Enosburg
14,250
13,200
1,050
7.2
8.7
8.7
Warren-Waitsfield
4,100
3,900
250
5.6
4.4
5.9
Woodstock
3,450
3,250
200
6.1
6.1
6.5
Vermont Total
357,250
333,350
23,900
6.7
7.3
7.6
Note: Unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed divided by total labor force and expressed as a percent.
Source: Vermont Department of Labor LAUS program in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Vermont Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Employment in Thousands
BY NAICS
Prelim.
Revised
Revised
Change From:
% Change From:
Apr-10
Mar-10
Apr-09
Mar-10
Apr-09
Mar-10
Apr-09
Total - All Industries
294.0
295.9
297.8
-1.9
-3.8
-0.6
-1.3
Private Industries
239.3
241.5
242.5
-2.2
-3.2
-0.9
-1.3
Construction
11.5
12.2
13.8
-0.7
-2.3
-5.7
-16.7
Manufacturing
30.9
30.3
31.3
0.6
-0.4
2.0
-1.3
Durable Goods
22.1
21.6
22.3
0.5
-0.2
2.3
-0.9
Non-Durable Goods
8.8
8.7
9.0
0.1
-0.2
1.1
-2.2
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
54.7
54.8
56.3
-0.1
-1.6
-0.2
-2.8
Retail Trade
36.6
36.7
38.2
-0.1
-1.6
-0.3
-4.2
Trans., Warehousing & Utilities
8.0
8.0
8.3
0.0
-0.3
0.0
-3.6
Financial Activities
12.6
12.4
12.4
0.2
0.2
1.6
1.6
Professional & Business Services
21.6
21.7
22.1
-0.1
-0.5
-0.5
-2.3
Professional., Scientific & Technical
12.6
12.9
13.1
-0.3
-0.8
-2.3
-3.8
Administrative Support & Waste
8.7
8.5
8.6
0.2
0.1
2.4
1.2
Education & Health Services
61.1
60.5
59.4
0.6
1.7
1.0
2.9
Private Ed. Services
13.0
13.0
13.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-1.5
Health Care & Social Assistance
48.1
47.5
46.2
0.6
1.9
1.3
4.1
Leisure & Hospitality
31.2
33.7
31.4
-2.5
-0.2
-7.4
-0.6
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
3.8
3.7
3.9
0.1
-0.1
2.7
-2.6
Accommodation & Food Services
27.4
30.0
27.5
-2.6
-0.1
-8.7
-0.4
Other Services
9.4
9.6
9.5
-0.2
-0.1
-2.1
-1.1
Total Government
54.7
54.4
55.3
0.3
-0.6
0.6
-1.1
State Government
17.4
17.2
17.9
0.2
-0.5
1.2
-2.8
Local Government
30.0
30.1
30.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.3
Burlington-S. Burlington MSA
Total - All Industries
108.7
108.9
111.2
-0.2
-2.5
-0.2
-2.2
Statewide Total - All Industries estimate is seasonally adjusted independently.
Note: Beginning January 2009 Vermont is publishing a seasonally adjusted Total-All Industries estimate for the
Burlington - S. Burlington MSA.
Current Employment Statistics Program (CES). Produced by the Vermont Department of Labor in cooperation with the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics.
ESTIMATED NONFARM EMPLOYMENT IN VERMONT
(not seasonally adjusted)
PRELIM
REVISED
REVISED
CHANGES FROM
% CHANGES FROM
INDUSTRY BY NAICS
Apr-10
Mar-10
Apr-09
Mar-10
Apr-09
Mar-10
Apr-09
TOTAL NONFARM
290,550
294,650
293,600
-4,100
-3,050
-1.4%
-1.0%
TOTAL PRIVATE
233,450
237,900
236,300
-4,450
-2,850
-1.9%
-1.2%
GOODS PRODUCING
41,850
39,950
44,200
1,900
-2,350
4.8%
-5.3%
MANUFACTURING
30,550
29,850
30,950
700
-400
2.3%
-1.3%
Durable Goods
21,850
21,350
22,100
500
-250
2.3%
-1.1%
Computer & Electrical Equipment Mfg.
7,400
7,500
7,900
-100
-500
-1.3%
-6.3%
Fabricated Metal Products Mfg.
2,350
2,350
2,350
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
Non-Durable Goods
8,700
8,500
8,850
200
-150
2.4%
-1.7%
Food Mfg.
3,900
3,750
3,850
150
50
4.0%
1.3%
CONSTRUCTION
10,550
9,350
12,450
1,200
-1,900
12.8%
-15.3%
MINING & LOGGING
750
750
800
0
-50
0.0%
-6.3%
SERVICE-PROVIDING
248,700
254,700
249,400
-6,000
-700
-2.4%
-0.3%
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION AND UTILITIES
53,450
53,450
55,050
0
-1,600
0.0%
-2.9%
Wholesale Trade
9,750
9,800
9,700
-50
50
-0.5%
0.5%
Retail Trade
35,800
35,700
37,200
100
-1,400
0.3%
-3.8%
Food & Beverage Stores
9,750
9,850
9,700
-100
50
-1.0%
0.5%
General Merchandise Store
2,850
2,850
2,700
0
150
0.0%
5.6%
Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities
7,900
7,950
8,150
-50
-250
-0.6%
-3.1%
Utilities
1,700
1,700
1,700
0
0
0.0%
0.0%
Transportation & Warehousing
6,200
6,250
6,450
-50
-250
-0.8%
-3.9%
INFORMATION
5,400
5,400
5,500
0
-100
0.0%
-1.8%
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES
12,500
12,500
12,300
0
200
0.0%
1.6%
Finance & Insurance
9,600
9,550
9,350
50
250
0.5%
2.7%
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
2,900
2,950
2,950
-50
-50
-1.7%
-1.7%
PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES
21,250
20,950
21,800
300
-550
1.4%
-2.5%
Professional, Scientific and Technical
12,600
12,800
13,100
-200
-500
-1.6%
-3.8%
Administrative, Support and Waste
8,400
7,850
8,250
550
150
7.0%
1.8%
EDUCATIONAL AND HEALTH SERVICES
61,250
60,700
59,600
550
1,650
0.9%
2.8%
Educational Services
13,350
13,400
13,650
-50
-300
-0.4%
-2.2%
College, Universities and Professional
7,750
7,600
7,750
150
0
2.0%
0.0%
Health Care and Social Assistance
47,900
47,300
45,950
600
1,950
1.3%
4.2%
Ambulatory Health Care Services
15,900
15,600
15,600
300
300
1.9%
1.9%
Hospitals
12,950
12,850
12,450
100
500
0.8%
4.0%
Nursing and Residential Care Facilities
6,850
6,800
6,850
50
0
0.7%
0.0%
LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY
28,500
35,450
28,450
-6,950
50
-19.6%
0.2%
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
3,350
3,250
3,300
100
50
3.1%
1.5%
Accommodation and Food Services
25,150
32,200
25,150
-7,050
0
-21.9%
0.0%
Accommodations
8,650
15,500
8,650
-6,850
0
-44.2%
0.0%
Hotels & Motels
8,500
13,500
7,950
-5,000
550
-37.0%
6.9%
Food Services and Drinking Places
16,500
16,700
16,500
-200
0
-1.2%
0.0%
OTHER SERVICES
9,250
9,500
9,400
-250
-150
-2.6%
-1.6%
GOVERNMENT
57,100
56,750
57,300
350
-200
0.6%
-0.3%
Federal Government
7,100
6,800
7,050
300
50
4.4%
0.7%
State Government Education
9,150
9,300
9,150
-150
0
-1.6%
0.0%
Local Government Education
25,000
24,750
24,800
250
200
1.0%
0.8%
Other State Government
8,850
8,850
9,250
0
-400
0.0%
-4.3%
Other Local Government
7,000
7,050
7,050
-50
-50
-0.7%
-0.7%
Note: CES PROGRAM DATA ARE PRDUCED IN COOPERATION WITH THE U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
ESTIMATES ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO REVISION. SEE ANNUAL SUMMARY FOR DETAILS