Vermont s leading businesses appear increasingly optimistic toward all three of the survey s metrics: sales prospects, capital expenditures and employment levels for the spring and summer months, when compared against third quarter 2009 forecasts. The mood was assessed near the end of the first quarter and released today by Vermont Business Roundtable Chair Bill Stritzler and President Lisa Ventriss.
The strongest change that we saw was in the area of sales, in which 63 percent of respondents expect their sales to increase in the next six months, compared to 34 percent from the previous survey. That tells me that our CEOs expect consumer behavior to improve through this summer. Ventriss said.
Chair Stritzler, who is managing director of the Jeffersonville-based Smugglers Notch Resort, says the results of the CEO survey reflect encouraging attitudes of the marketplace. The anecdotal information from Roundtable members over the past three months is now being validated by our survey results and that is good news. Fifty percent of respondents expect to increase their capital spending, compared to 31% in the previous survey, and this is also a good sign for Vermont s economy.
In terms of employment levels, there is also encouraging news to report. While 52 percent of respondents indicated no change in their employment levels for the next six months (up from 46 percent) , a much smaller percentage of respondents expect to decrease their workforces in that time frame (8% compared to 20% in the previous survey).
The Roundtable s CEO Economic Outlook Survey provides a forward-looking view of the economic assumptions and attitudes of chief executive officers for 110 of the state s top employers. Vermont s agriculture, construction, education, health services, finance, real estate, insurance, hospitality/leisure, manufacturing, information, utilities, professional/business services, wholesale trade, and non-profit industries are represented. The response rate for this quarter was 65 percent. Historically, rates have varied from 35 to 73 percent.
1. How do you expect your company s sales to change in the next six months?
Sales
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
83%
13%
4%
Q2 2004
80%
15%
4%
Q3 2004
71%
25%
4%
Q4 2004
77%
22%
1%
Q1 2005
78%
19%
3%
Q2 2005
75%
23%
2%
Q3 2005
74%
24%
2%
Q4 2005
72%
24%
4%
Q1 2006
78%
20%
2%
Q2 2006
78%
22%
0%
Q3 2006
69%
25%
6%
Q4 2006
73%
23%
4%
Q3 2008
51%
35%
14%
Q4 2008
27%
46%
27%
Q1 2009
33%
30%
37%
Q2 2009
41%
31%
28%
Q3 2009
34%
49%
17%
Q1 2010
63%
19%
18%
% change from Q3/09 to Q1/10
29%
-30%
1%
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
2. How do you expect your company s capital spending to change in the next six months?
Capital
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
62%
30%
8%
Q2 2004
43%
41%
15%
Q3 2004
51%
42%
7%
Q4 2004
45%
46%
9%
Q1 2005
55%
37%
8%
Q2 2005
49%
43%
8%
Q3 2005
57%
38%
5%
Q4 2005
50%
35%
15%
Q1 2006
45%
45%
10%
Q2 2006
53%
40%
7%
Q3 2006
40%
50%
10%
Q4 2006
56%
39%
5%
Q3 2008
38%
42%
20%
Q4 2008
17 %
43%
40%
Q1 2009
12%
38%
50%
Q2 2009
17%
51%
32%
Q3 2009
31%
46%
23%
Q1 2010
50%
42%
8%
% Change from Q3/09 to Q1/10
19%
-4%
-15%
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
3. How do you expect your company s employment to change in the next six months?
Employment
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
57%
38%
4%
Q2 2004
50%
48%
2%
Q3 2004
59%
37%
4%
Q4 2004
58%
39%
3%
Q1 2005
55%
38%
7%
Q2 2005
49%
42%
9%
Q3 2005
49%
44%
7%
Q4 2005
60%
35%
5%
Q1 2006
54%
39%
7%
Q2 2006
50%
45%
5%
Q3 2006
43%
49%
7%
Q4 2006
53%
41%
5%
Q3 2008
40%
42%
18%
Q4 2008
25%
35%
40%
Q1 2009
23%
37%
40%
Q2 2009
21%
50%
29%
Q3 2009
34%
46%
20%
Q1 2010
40%
52%
8%
% Change from Q3/09 to Q1/10
6%
6%
-12%
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
-###-
The Roundtable is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization of 100 CEOs of Vermont's top private and nonprofit employers, representing geographic diversity and all major sectors of the Vermont economy. The Roundtable is committed to sustaining a sound economy and preserving Vermont s unique quality of life by studying and making recommendations on statewide public policy issues.
-30-