The chief executives of Vermont’s leading businesses appear increasingly optimistic toward all three of the survey’s metrics: sales prospects, capital expenditures and employment levels for the summer months and fall months, when compared against first quarter 2010 forecasts. The mood was assessed near the end of the second quarter and released today by Vermont Business Roundtable Chair Bill Stritzler and President Lisa Ventriss.
According to Roundtable President, Lisa Ventriss, ‘Overall, these data represent the third straight reporting period in which indicators have been trending positively for sales, capital expenditures, and employment levels. In particular, a strengthening in the sales forecasts from our CEO members; now more than two-thirds (69 percent) of respondents expect their sales to increase in the next six months, compared to 63 percent from the first quarter. That bodes well for Vermont products and services.’ Ventriss said.
Chair Stritzler, who is managing director of the Jeffersonville-based Smugglers’ Notch Resort, says the results of the CEO survey reflect encouraging attitudes of the marketplace. ‘The anecdotal information from Roundtable members over the past several months is now being validated by our survey results and that is continued good news, especially for those seeking employment. Forty-six percent of respondents expect to increase their workforce in the next six months, compared to 40% in the previous survey.’
Capital spending was the one area in which the rate of change from the previous quarter was slowest. A majority of CEOs continued to forecast an increase in capital expenditures (51% v. 50% in 1Q), and roughly 10% expect to decrease spending in the next six months, up slightly from the previous quarter (11% v. 8% in 1Q).
‘In sum, we are encouraged by these results and believe that the economy continues to strengthen as we move into the busy summer and fall seasons’, said Stritzler.
The Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey provides a forward-looking view of the economic assumptions and attitudes of chief executive officers for 110 of the state’s top employers. Vermont’s agriculture, construction, education, health services, finance, real estate, insurance, hospitality/leisure, manufacturing, information, utilities, professional/business services, wholesale trade, and non-profit industries are represented. The response rate for this quarter was 67 percent. Historically, rates have varied from 35 to 73 percent.
1. How do you expect your company’s sales to change in the next six months?
Sales
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
83%
13%
4%
Q2 2004
80%
15%
4%
Q3 2004
71%
25%
4%
Q4 2004
77%
22%
1%
Q1 2005
78%
19%
3%
Q2 2005
75%
23%
2%
Q3 2005
74%
24%
2%
Q4 2005
72%
24%
4%
Q1 2006
78%
20%
2%
Q2 2006
78%
22%
0%
Q3 2006
69%
25%
6%
Q4 2006
73%
23%
4%
Q3 2008
51%
35%
14%
Q4 2008
27%
46%
27%
Q1 2009
33%
30%
37%
Q2 2009
41%
31%
28%
Q3 2009
34%
49%
17%
Q1 2010
63%
19%
18%
Q2 2010
69%
24%
7%
% change from Q1/10 to Q2/10
6%
5%
-11%
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
2. How do you expect your company’s capital spending to change in the next six months?
Capital
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
62%
30%
8%
Q2 2004
43%
41%
15%
Q3 2004
51%
42%
7%
Q4 2004
45%
46%
9%
Q1 2005
55%
37%
8%
Q2 2005
49%
43%
8%
Q3 2005
57%
38%
5%
Q4 2005
50%
35%
15%
Q1 2006
45%
45%
10%
Q2 2006
53%
40%
7%
Q3 2006
40%
50%
10%
Q4 2006
56%
39%
5%
Q3 2008
38%
42%
20%
Q4 2008
17 %
43%
40%
Q1 2009
12%
38%
50%
Q2 2009
17%
51%
32%
Q3 2009
31%
46%
23%
Q1 2010
50%
42%
8%
Q2 2010
51%
38%
11%
% Change from Q1/10 to Q2/10
1%
-4%
3%
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
3. How do you expect your company’s employment to change in the next six months?
Employment
INCREASE
NO CHANGE
DECREASE
Q1 2004
57%
38%
4%
Q2 2004
50%
48%
2%
Q3 2004
59%
37%
4%
Q4 2004
58%
39%
3%
Q1 2005
55%
38%
7%
Q2 2005
49%
42%
9%
Q3 2005
49%
44%
7%
Q4 2005
60%
35%
5%
Q1 2006
54%
39%
7%
Q2 2006
50%
45%
5%
Q3 2006
43%
49%
7%
Q4 2006
53%
41%
5%
Q3 2008
40%
42%
18%
Q4 2008
25%
35%
40%
Q1 2009
23%
37%
40%
Q2 2009
21%
50%
29%
Q3 2009
34%
46%
20%
Q1 2010
40%
52%
8%
Q2 2010
46%
45%
9%
% Change from Q1/10 to Q2/10
6%
-7%
1%
Totals may not equal 100 due to rounding.
Source: Vermont Business Roundtable. 7.1.2010. The Roundtable is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization of 110 CEOs of Vermont's top private and nonprofit employers, representing geographic diversity and all major sectors of the Vermont economy. The Roundtable is committed to sustaining a sound economy and preserving Vermont’s unique quality of life by studying and making recommendations on statewide public policy issues.
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