The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for August 2009 was 6.8 percent, unchanged from the revised July rate and up 2.1 points from a year ago. The rate remained unchanged from July as a result of very little change in the number of unemployed and a decline in the total labor force. The same forces that kept Vermont's unemployment rate at the lowest in the region last month appear to remain in August. A strong summer youth employment program, continued growth in the Health Care & Social Assistance sector and a steady Leisure and Hospitality sector. Vermont’s observed August seasonally adjusted employment, unemployment levels and unemployment rate estimates were not statistically different from July values. For comparison purposes, the US seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for July was 9.7 percent, up three-tenths of a point from the revised August rate of 9.4 percent.
Unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 3.6 percent in Hartford to 8.3 percent in Rutland. Local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. For comparison, the August unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 6.1 percent, down four-tenths of a point from July 2009 and up 2.0 points from a year ago. The August unadjusted unemployment rate estimate for Vermont was not statistically different from the July rate.
“Unemployment remained at 6.8 percent, reflecting the same forces that were at work in July,” said Patricia Moulton Powden, Commissioner of the Vermont Department of Labor. “Strong summer youth employment, growth in the Health Care & Social Assistance sector and a steady Leisure and Hospitality sector kept our unemployment rate relatively low as compared to recent months.”
Job Growth
Historically, job growth between July and August has been variable – some years showing small growth, others a small decline. Before seasonal adjustment, Total Non-Farm (TNF) jobs grew by 250 or 0.1% over the month. Annual unadjusted job growth fell by 11,150 or -3.7% - a very slight improvement over July. . Leisure & Hospitality, (+400 or +1.3%) and Health care & Social Assistance, (+200 or 0.4%) showed the largest month to month growth. No sector showed significant declines.
When seasonally adjusted, August job levels were essentially flat, (-100 or -0.0%) to July. The largest growth was seen in the Health Care & Social Assistance sector (+400 or +0.9%). The largest job losses were seen in Professional & Business Services, (-300 or -1.4%). All other sectors were quiet.
The preliminary estimates of nonfarm jobs for August, and the revisions to the estimates for November 2008 through July 2009, incorporate substantive changes made in the Current Employment Survey estimation procedures. These new procedures are designed to bring the aggregate monthly change in jobs for individual states into closer alignment with the change in national job counts reflected in the estimates produced and published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As a result of these changes, the November 2008 and forward estimates may not be totally comparable to previous months' data. The impact of these changes in methodology will be better understood when we are able to make benchmark comparisons to Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. We expect to make these comparisons beginning in May of 2009. For details of these changes, please contact Andy Condon at the Vermont Department of Labor at 802-828-4153 or [email protected].
Vermont Labor Force Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted)
Changes From
Aug
2009
July
2009
Aug
2008
July
2009
Aug
2008
Total Labor Force
358,800
360,200
355,300
-1,400
3,500
Employment
334,500
335,600
338,700
-1,100
-4,200
Unemployment
24,300
24,600
16,600
-300
7.700
Rate (%)
6.8
6.8
4.7
0.0
2.1
Vermont’s labor force, employment and unemployment statistics are produced from a combination of a Statewide survey of households and statistical modeling. The data are produced by the Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program (LAUS) a cooperative program with the US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Vermont Department of Labor.
Vermont Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Employment in Thousands
BY NAICS
Prelim.
Revised
Revised
Change From:
% Change From:
Aug -09
Jul-09
Aug-08
Jul-09
Aug-08
Jul-09
Aug-08
Total - All Industries
294.5
294.6
306.5
-0.1
-12.0
0.0
-3.9
Private Industries
239.3
239.3
252.2
0.0
-12.9
0.0
-5.1
Construction
13.1
13.2
15.5
-0.1
-2.4
-0.8
-15.5
Manufacturing
30.2
30.3
34.8
-0.1
-4.6
-0.3
-13.2
Durable Goods
21.2
21.3
25.2
-0.1
-4.0
-0.5
-15.9
Non-Durable Goods
9.0
9.0
9.6
0.0
-0.6
0.0
-6.3
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
56.7
56.7
59.2
0.0
-2.5
0.0
-4.2
Retail Trade
37.7
37.7
40.0
0.0
-2.3
0.0
-5.7
Trans., Warehousing & Utilities
8.9
8.9
8.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Financial Activities
12.5
12.6
12.9
-0.1
-0.4
-0.8
-3.1
Professional & Business Services
20.5
20.8
22.7
-0.3
-2.2
-1.4
-9.7
Professional., Scientific & Technical
12.7
12.7
13.5
0.0
-0.8
0.0
-5.9
Administrative Support & Waste
7.8
7.9
8.9
-0.1
-1.1
-1.3
-12.4
Education & Health Services
60.9
60.6
58.8
0.3
2.1
0.5
3.6
Private Ed. Services
13.5
13.6
13.2
-0.1
0.3
-0.7
2.3
Health Care & Social Assistance
47.4
47.0
45.6
0.4
1.8
0.9
3.9
Leisure & Hospitality
30.5
30.4
32.3
0.1
-1.8
0.3
-5.6
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
3.7
3.7
3.9
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-5.1
Accommodation & Food Services
26.8
26.7
28.4
0.1
-1.6
0.4
-5.6
Other Services
9.5
9.5
9.7
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-2.1
Total Government
55.2
55.3
54.3
-0.1
0.9
-0.2
1.7
State Government
18.4
18.5
18.0
-0.1
0.4
-0.5
2.2
Local Government
30.5
30.6
30.0
-0.1
0.5
-0.3
1.7
Burlington-S. Burlington MSA
Total - All Industries
108.6
108.6
113.8
0.0
-5.2
0.0
-4.6
Statewide Total - All Industries estimate is seasonally adjusted independently.
Note: Beginning January 2009 Vermont will publish a seasonally adjusted Total-All Industries estimate for the
Burlington - S. Burlington MSA.
Produced by the Vermont Department of Labor in cooperation with the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics.
ESTIMATED NONFARM EMPLOYMENT IN VERMONT
(not seasonally adjusted)
PRELIM
REVISED
REVISED
CHANGES FROM
% CHANGES FROM
INDUSTRY BY NAICS
Augl-09
Jul-09
Aug-08
Jul-09
Aug-08
Jul-09
Aug-08
TOTAL NONFARM
289,900
289,650
301,050
250
-11,150
0.1%
-3.7%
TOTAL PRIVATE
244,450
244,250
256,550
200
-12,100
0.1%
-4.7%
GOODS PRODUCING
46,000
46,200
53,250
-200
-7,250
-0.4%
-13.6%
MANUFACTURING
30,500
30,550
35,100
-50
-4,600
-0.2%
-13.1%
Durable Goods
21,300
21,400
25,350
-100
-4,050
-0.5%
-16.0%
Computer & Electrical Equipment Mfg.
8,400
8,450
9,100
-50
-700
-0.6%
-7.7%
Fabricated Metal Products Mfg.
2,500
2,500
2,550
0
-50
0.0%
-2.0%
Non-Durable Goods
9,200
9,150
9,750
50
-550
0.5%
-5.6%
Food Mfg.
4,000
3,900
4,050
100
-50
2.6%
-1.2%
CONSTRUCTION
14,650
14,800
17,250
-150
-2,600
-1.0%
-15.1%
MINING & LOGGING
850
850
900
0
-50
0.0%
-5.6%
SERVICE-PROVIDING
243,900
243,450
247,800
450
-3,900
0.2%
-1.6%
TRADE, TRANSPORTATION AND UTILITIES
56,800
56,700
58,950
100
-2,150
0.2%
-3.6%
Wholesale Trade
10,150
10,100
10,300
50
-150
0.5%
-1.5%
Retail Trade
38,100
38,100
40,200
0
-2,100
0.0%
-5.2%
Food & Beverage Stores
10,250
10,200
10,300
50
-50
0.5%
-0.5%
General Merchandise Store
2,750
2,750
2,850
0
-100
0.0%
-3.5%
Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities
8,550
8,500
8,450
50
100
0.6%
1.2%
Utilities
1,850
1,850
1,800
0
50
0.0%
2.8%
Transportation & Warehousing
6,700
6,650
6,650
50
50
0.8%
0.8%
INFORMATION
5,550
5,550
5,850
0
-300
0.0%
-5.1%
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES
12,700
12,700
13,100
0
-400
0.0%
-3.1%
Finance & Insurance
9,350
9,350
9,650
0
-300
0.0%
-3.1%
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
3,350
3,350
3,450
0
-100
0.0%
-2.9%
PROFESSIONAL AND BUSINESS SERVICES
21,250
21,400
23,250
-150
-2,000
-0.7%
-8.6%
Professional, Scientific and Technical
12,750
12,750
13,500
0
-750
0.0%
-5.6%
Administrative, Support and Waste
8,250
8,350
9,500
-100
-1,250
-1.2%
-13.2%
EDUCATIONAL AND HEALTH SERVICES
60,100
60,000
58,100
100
2,000
0.2%
3.4%
Educational Services
12,550
12,650
12,300
-100
250
-0.8%
2.0%
College, Universities and Professional
6,750
6,700
6,800
50
-50
0.7%
-0.7%
Health Care and Social Assistance
47,550
47,350
45,800
200
1,750
0.4%
3.8%
Ambulatory Health Care Services
16,200
16,250
16,000
-50
200
-0.3%
1.3%
Hospitals
12,800
12,800
12,150
0
650
0.0%
5.3%
Nursing and Residential Care Facilities
7,100
7,050
7,000
50
100
0.7%
1.4%
LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY
32,350
31,950
34,200
400
-1,850
1.3%
-5.4%
Arts, Entertainment and Recreation
4,500
4,600
4,650
-100
-150
-2.2%
-3.2%
Accommodation and Food Services
27,850
27,350
29,550
500
-1,700
1.8%
-5.8%
Accommodations
10,300
9,850
10,900
450
-600
4.6%
-5.5%
Hotels & Motels
8,350
8,150
8,950
200
-600
2.5%
-6.7%
Food Services and Drinking Places
17,550
17,500
18,650
50
-1,100
0.3%
-5.9%
OTHER SERVICES
9,700
9,750
9,850
-50
-150
-0.5%
-1.5%
GOVERNMENT
45,450
45,400
44,500
50
950
0.1%
2.1%
Federal Government
6,300
6,300
6,250
0
50
0.0%
0.8%
State Government Education
6,300
6,200
6,300
100
0
1.6%
0.0%
Local Government Education
14,300
14,250
14,000
50
300
0.4%
2.1%
Other State Government
10,500
10,600
10,100
-100
400
-0.9%
4.0%
Other Local Government
8,050
8,050
7,850
0
200
0.0%
2.5%
NOTE: DATA COMPLIED IN COOPERATION WITH THE U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
ESTIMATES ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO REVISION. SEE ANNUAL SUMMARY FOR DETAILS
Beginning with the January ’09 estimates CES has implemented a change to the
Super Sector previously titled “Natural Resources & Mining” to “Mining & Logging”.
It’s merely a change of title to better reflect the true makeup of the Super Sector in CES.
VERMONT LABOR FORCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LABOR MARKET AREAS BY RESIDENCE (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
August 2009 Estimates
Total
Number
Number
Aug-09
Jul-09
Aug-08
Area
Labor Force
Employed
Unemployed
Rate (%)
Rate (%)
Rate (%)
Barre-Montpelier
29,750
28,000
1,800
6.0
6.4
4.2
Bennington
13,400
12,450
950
7.0
7.6
4.6
Bradford
5,100
4,750
300
6.2
6.6
3.9
Brattleboro
24,350
22,800
1,550
6.3
6.6
4.4
Burlington-South Burlington
114,800
108,500
6,300
5.5
5.9
3.8
Hartford
21,250
20,450
750
3.6
3.9
2.4
Manchester
12,600
11,800
750
6.1
6.4
4.1
Middlebury
18,500
17,400
1,100
6.0
6.5
4.0
Morristown-Stowe
21,400
20,150
1,250
5.9
6.4
4.0
Newport
14,350
13,200
1,150
8.0
8.4
5.5
Randolph
8,850
8,250
600
6.9
7.4
4.6
Rutland
25,650
23,550
2,150
8.3
8.9
5.4
Springfield
12,500
11,600
900
7.2
7.5
4.5
St. Johnsbury
15,450
14,350
1,100
7.1
7.4
4.3
Swanton-Enosburg
14,300
13,350
950
6.7
7.1
4.6
Warren-Waitsfield
3,850
3,650
200
4.9
5.6
2.8
Woodstock
3,900
3,750
150
4.2
4.4
2.5
Vermont Total
362,400
340,250
22,150
6.1
6.5
4.1
Note: Rate is unemployed divided by total labor force, expressed as a percent.
Source: Vermont Department of Labor in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
30