Vermont's unemployment rate fell again in October to 6.5 percent from the September seasonally adjusted rate of 6.7 percent. The rate in both August and July was 6.8 percent. The rate during this recent downturn peaked at 7.4 percent in May. Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted job losses in Vermont from October 2008 were 10,700. The unemployment rate in October 2008 was 5.2 percent.
Last week, two Vermont economists told Governor Douglas and key legislators (watch video) that the state's jobs picture would continue to erode through the middle of next year, with the unemployment rate bottoming out at 8.2-8.3 percent. Jeff Carr and Tom Kavet told the Emergency Board that while the economy has stabilized, it will take businesses awhile to feel confident enough to start re-hiring. The reason for the short-term drop in the unemployment rate since last spring is because many people are no longer looking for work, thus decreasing the number used to determine the total labor force. The US rate for October went up four-tenths to 10.4 percent.
“Vermont’s unemployment rate fell again in October due to small declines in both the number of unemployed and the number of persons participating in the Labor Force” said Patricia Moulton Powden, Commissioner of the Vermont Department of Labor. “The number of unemployed Vermonters has been declining since the 2nd quarter this year. However, Vermont’s labor market is not in recovery yet. We are still not seeing any significant job growth. We believe some of the decline in unemployment is due to workers leaving the labor force due to demographic factors such as retirements or because of the early recovery in financial markets.”
Job Growth
In the recent past we have typically seen a job gain of about 1,600 moving from September into October. Before seasonal adjustment, Total Non-Farm (TNF) jobs grew by 1,800 or 0.6% over the month. Annual unadjusted job growth fell by 10,850 or -3.5%. This rate of annual loss is slightly better than what we have seen in the last few months. Most of the seasonal gains have come from Education sectors, particularly Local Government Education which grew 1,500 positions or +6.4%. Health Care & Social Assistance also saw substantial job gains of 800 or 1.7%. Leisure & Hospitality experienced the largest seasonal declines, shedding 1,300 jobs or -4.3% over the month.
When seasonally adjusted, October jobs remained essentially flat at +200 or 0.1% from September to October. Education and Health Services showed the largest growth, (+1,400 or 2.3%). Leisure and Hospitality, (-500 or -1.6%) and Manufacturing, (-300 or -1.0%) saw the largest declines.
Employment Growth
Vermont’s October seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell by two tenths of a point to 6.5% percent as a result of declines in the number of unemployed and total labor force. The number of unemployed Vermonters has been on the decline since May of this year and may signal that the worst of the current recession is behind us. However, the continuing decline in Labor Force may be driven by demographics and / or an increasing number of Vermonters choosing not to participate in the traditional workforce. In either case, the decrease in Vermont’s unemployment rate is not being driven by increases in the number of employed Vermonters. Vermont’s October seasonally adjusted employment, unemployment levels and unemployment rate estimates are not statistically different from September values. For comparison purposes, the US seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for July was 10.2 percent, up four-tenths of a point from the revised September rate of 9.8 percent.
Unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 3.7 percent in Hartford to 8.0 percent in Rutland. Local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. For comparison, the October unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 5.9 percent, down five-tenths of a point from September 2009 and up 1.5 points from a year ago. The October unadjusted estimates for the number of unemployed and the unemployment rate were statistically lower than September values. Unadjusted estimates of employment and labor force were not statistically different from September values.
Starting with the final October 2009 job estimates, the USDOL Bureau of Labor Statistics is again revising the methodology for determining job levels in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. These new procedures are the second phase in efforts to bring state job estimates more in line with national estimates. The initial change in methodology resulted in a sharp shift downward in November and December, 2008 job estimates. In this second phase, states will have to accept pure sample estimates at both the total non-farm level and at the individual industry sector levels. As we move forward we can expect small sample states like Vermont to exhibit a higher degree of variability in month to month job estimates. As a result of this change in methodology, caution should be used in interpreting single month’s results. Caution should also be used in making year over year comparisons until we can complete the annual benchmark process. The benchmark process will be complete by January 2010. CES job numbers are now best understood in the context of their movement over several months as opposed to observed changes in a single month estimates.
Nationally
Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed or higher in October. Twenty-nine states and the District of Columbia recorded over-the-month unemployment rate increases, 13 states registered rate decreases, and 8 states had no rate change, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the year, jobless rates increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The national unemployment rate rose to 10.2 percent in October, up 0.4 percentage point from September and 3.6 points from October 2008.
In October, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 28 states and the District of Columbia, decreased in 21 states, and remained unchanged in 1 state. The largest over-the-month increase in employment occurred in Texas (+41,700), followed by Michigan (+38,600), California (+25,700), North Carolina (+12,100), and Pennsylvania (+10,600). Michigan experienced the largest over-the-month percentage increase in employment (+1.0 percent), followed by the District of Columbia (+0.8 percent), Montana (+0.7 percent), Oklahoma (+0.6 percent), and Utah (+0.5 percent). The largest over-the-month decrease in employment occurred in New York (-15,300), followed by Florida (-8,500), Georgia (-7,500), Virginia (-7,100), and South Carolina (-5,800). Wyoming (-0.9 percent) experienced the largest over-the-month percentage decrease in employment, followed by Idaho and Nevada (-0.4 percent each), and South Carolina (-0.3 per-cent). Over the year, nonfarm employment decreased in all 50 states and in-creased in the District of Columbia. The largest over-the-year percentage de-creases occurred in Arizona (-6.9 percent), Michigan (-6.4 percent), Nevada (-6.0 percent), Georgia (-5.6 percent), and Wyoming (-5.5 percent).
Regional Unemployment (Seasonally Adjusted)
In October, the West reported the highest regional jobless rate, 10.8 per-cent, followed by the Midwest, 10.0 percent. The rate in the West was the highest in its series. (All region, division, and state series begin in 1976.) The Northeast and South recorded the lowest unemployment rates in October, 9.0 and 9.5 percent, respectively. No region experienced a statistically significant over-the-month rate change. Over the year, all four regions registered significant rate increases, the largest of which was in the West (+3.8 percentage points). (See table 1.)
Among the nine geographic divisions, the Pacific continued to report the highest jobless rate, 11.8 percent, in October. The East North Central recorded the next highest rate, 11.2 percent, followed by the East South Central, 10.7 percent, and South Atlantic, 9.9 percent. The Pacific and South Atlantic divisions both set new series highs. The West North Central registered the lowest October jobless rate, 7.3 percent. No division experienced a statistically significant unemployment rate change from a month earlier. In contrast, all nine divisions had significant over-the-year rate increases, with the largest of these occurring in the Pacific (+4.2 percentage points), East South Central (+4.1 points), and East North Central (+4.0 points).
State Unemployment (Seasonally Adjusted)
Michigan again recorded the highest unemployment rate among the states, 15.1 percent, in October. The states with the next highest rates were Nevada, 13.0 percent; Rhode Island, 12.9 percent; California, 12.5 percent; and South Carolina, 12.1 percent. The rate in California set a new series high, as did the rates in Delaware (8.7 percent) and Florida (11.2 percent). The District of Columbia also set a series high, 11.9 percent. North Dakota continued to register the lowest jobless rate, 4.2 percent, in October, followed by Nebraska, 4.9 percent, and South Dakota, 5.0 percent. In total, 31 states posted jobless rates significantly lower than the U.S. figure of 10.2 percent, 8 states and the District of Columbia had measurably higher rates, and 11 states had rates that were not appreciably different from that of the nation. (See tables A and 3.)
Eight states reported statistically significant over-the-month unemployment rate increases in October. Alaska and Wyoming experienced the largest of these (+0.6 percentage point each), followed by Arkansas (+0.5 point). The District of Columbia also recorded a significant rate increase (+0.5 percentage point). The remaining 42 states registered jobless rates that were not appreciably different from those of a month earlier, though some had changes that were at least as large numerically as the significant changes. (See table B.)
All states and the District of Columbia recorded statistically significant in-creases in their jobless rates from October 2008. The largest of these were in Michigan (+6.0 percentage points), Nevada (+5.3 points), and Alabama (+5.2 points), while the smallest rate increase occurred in North Dakota (+1.0 point). (See table C.)
Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Seasonally Adjusted)
Between September and October 2009, six states and the District of Columbia experienced statistically significant changes in employment. Statistically significant job gains occurred in Texas (+41,700), Michigan (+38,600), California (+25,700), Oklahoma (+8,800), the District of Columbia (+5,400), and Montana (+3,200). The only statistically significant decrease in employment occurred in Wyoming (-2,600). (See tables D and 5.)
Over the year, 46 states experienced statistically significant changes in employment, all of which were decreases. The largest statistically significant job losses occurred in California (-687,700), Florida (-339,600), Texas (-307,200), Illinois (-286,300), Michigan (-262,700), Ohio (-243,200), New York (-242,500), and Georgia (-228,000). The smallest statistically significant decreases in employment occurred in South Dakota (-7,800) and Vermont (-10,700). (See table E.)
_____________The Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment news release for October is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, December 2, 2009, at 10:00 a.m. (EST). The Regional and State Employment and Unemployment news release for November is scheduled to be released on Friday, December 18, 2009, at 10:00 a.m. (EST).
Table A. States with unemployment rates significantly differ-
ent from that of the U.S., October 2009, seasonally adjusted
--------------------------------------------------------------
State | Rate(p)
--------------------------------------------------------------
United States (1) ...................| 10.2
|
Alaska ..............................| 8.9
Arkansas ............................| 7.6
California ..........................| 12.5
Colorado ............................| 6.9
Connecticut .........................| 8.8
Delaware ............................| 8.7
District of Columbia ................| 11.9
Florida .............................| 11.2
Hawaii ..............................| 7.2
Idaho ...............................| 9.0
|
Iowa ................................| 6.7
Kansas ..............................| 6.8
Louisiana ...........................| 7.4
Maine ...............................| 8.2
Maryland ............................| 7.3
Massachusetts .......................| 8.9
Michigan ............................| 15.1
Minnesota ...........................| 7.6
Montana .............................| 6.4
Nebraska ............................| 4.9
|
Nevada ..............................| 13.0
New Hampshire .......................| 6.8
New Mexico ..........................| 7.9
New York ............................| 9.0
North Carolina ......................| 11.0
North Dakota ........................| 4.2
Oklahoma ............................| 7.1
Oregon ..............................| 11.3
Pennsylvania ........................| 8.8
Rhode Island ........................| 12.9
|
South Carolina ......................| 12.1
South Dakota ........................| 5.0
Texas ...............................| 8.3
Utah ................................| 6.5
Vermont .............................| 6.5
Virginia ............................| 6.6
Washington ..........................| 9.3
West Virginia .......................| 8.5
Wisconsin ...........................| 8.4
Wyoming .............................| 7.4
--------------------------------------------------------------
1 Data are not preliminary.
p = preliminary.
Table B. States with statistically significant unemployment rate changes
from September 2009 to October 2009, seasonally adjusted
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Rate |
|-----------|-----------| Over-the-month
State | September | October | rate change(p)
| 2009 | 2009(p) |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alaska .........................| 8.3 | 8.9 | 0.6
Arkansas .......................| 7.1 | 7.6 | .5
Delaware .......................| 8.3 | 8.7 | .4
District of Columbia ...........| 11.4 | 11.9 | .5
Ohio ...........................| 10.1 | 10.5 | .4
South Dakota ...................| 4.8 | 5.0 | .2
Texas ..........................| 8.2 | 8.3 | .1
Utah ...........................| 6.2 | 6.5 | .3
Wyoming ........................| 6.8 | 7.4 | .6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
p = preliminary.
Table C. States with statistically significant unemployment rate changes
from October 2008 to October 2009, seasonally adjusted
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Rate |
|-----------|-----------| Over-the-year
State | October | October | rate change(p)
| 2008 | 2009(p) |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alabama ........................| 5.7 | 10.9 | 5.2
Alaska .........................| 6.8 | 8.9 | 2.1
Arizona ........................| 6.2 | 9.3 | 3.1
Arkansas .......................| 5.4 | 7.6 | 2.2
California .....................| 8.0 | 12.5 | 4.5
Colorado .......................| 5.3 | 6.9 | 1.6
Connecticut ....................| 6.1 | 8.8 | 2.7
Delaware .......................| 5.5 | 8.7 | 3.2
District of Columbia ...........| 7.7 | 11.9 | 4.2
Florida ........................| 6.9 | 11.2 | 4.3
| | |
Georgia ........................| 6.9 | 10.2 | 3.3
Hawaii .........................| 4.6 | 7.2 | 2.6
Idaho ..........................| 5.6 | 9.0 | 3.4
Illinois .......................| 6.8 | 11.0 | 4.2
Indiana ........................| 6.4 | 9.8 | 3.4
Iowa ...........................| 4.3 | 6.7 | 2.4
Kansas .........................| 4.7 | 6.8 | 2.1
Kentucky .......................| 6.9 | 11.2 | 4.3
Louisiana ......................| 5.5 | 7.4 | 1.9
Maine ..........................| 5.7 | 8.2 | 2.5
| | |
Maryland .......................| 4.8 | 7.3 | 2.5
Massachusetts ..................| 5.8 | 8.9 | 3.1
Michigan .......................| 9.1 | 15.1 | 6.0
Minnesota ......................| 5.6 | 7.6 | 2.0
Mississippi ....................| 7.2 | 9.8 | 2.6
Missouri .......................| 6.5 | 9.3 | 2.8
Montana ........................| 4.8 | 6.4 | 1.6
Nebraska .......................| 3.6 | 4.9 | 1.3
Nevada .........................| 7.7 | 13.0 | 5.3
New Hampshire ..................| 4.0 | 6.8 | 2.8
| | |
New Jersey .....................| 6.0 | 9.7 | 3.7
New Mexico .....................| 4.5 | 7.9 | 3.4
New York .......................| 5.9 | 9.0 | 3.1
North Carolina .................| 7.0 | 11.0 | 4.0
North Dakota ...................| 3.2 | 4.2 | 1.0
Ohio ...........................| 6.9 | 10.5 | 3.6
Oklahoma .......................| 4.2 | 7.1 | 2.9
Oregon .........................| 7.2 | 11.3 | 4.1
Pennsylvania ...................| 5.8 | 8.8 | 3.0
Rhode Island ...................| 8.8 | 12.9 | 4.1
| | |
South Carolina .................| 7.8 | 12.1 | 4.3
South Dakota ...................| 3.2 | 5.0 | 1.8
Tennessee ......................| 6.9 | 10.5 | 3.6
Texas ..........................| 5.3 | 8.3 | 3.0
Utah ...........................| 3.5 | 6.5 | 3.0
Vermont ........................| 4.9 | 6.5 | 1.6
Virginia .......................| 4.3 | 6.6 | 2.3
Washington .....................| 5.9 | 9.3 | 3.4
West Virginia ..................| 4.3 | 8.5 | 4.2
Wisconsin ......................| 4.9 | 8.4 | 3.5
Wyoming ........................| 3.2 | 7.4 | 4.2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
p = preliminary.
Table D. States with statistically significant employment changes from
September 2009 to October 2009, seasonally adjusted
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
| September | October | Over-the-month
State | 2009 | 2009(p) | change(p)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
California....................| 14,173,300 | 14,199,000 | 25,700
District of Columbia..........| 706,300 | 711,700 | 5,400
Michigan......................| 3,821,300 | 3,859,900 | 38,600
Montana.......................| 437,100 | 440,300 | 3,200
Oklahoma......................| 1,549,700 | 1,558,500 | 8,800
Texas.........................| 10,306,200 | 10,347,900 | 41,700
Wyoming.......................| 287,400 | 284,800 | -2,600
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
p = preliminary.
Table E. States with statistically significant employment changes from
October 2008 to October 2009, seasonally adjusted
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
| October | October | Over-the-year
State | 2008 | 2009(p) | change(p)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alabama.......................| 1,996,900 | 1,901,600 | -95,300
Arizona.......................| 2,586,500 | 2,409,000 | -177,500
Arkansas......................| 1,205,000 | 1,176,500 | -28,500
California....................| 14,886,700 | 14,199,000 | -687,700
Colorado......................| 2,341,700 | 2,241,100 | -100,600
Connecticut...................| 1,695,100 | 1,624,000 | -71,100
Delaware......................| 429,500 | 411,400 | -18,100
Florida.......................| 7,679,800 | 7,340,200 | -339,600
Georgia.......................| 4,067,800 | 3,839,800 | -228,000
Hawaii........................| 614,200 | 591,000 | -23,200
| | |
Idaho.........................| 644,300 | 610,300 | -34,000
Illinois......................| 5,921,900 | 5,635,600 | -286,300
Indiana.......................| 2,955,000 | 2,802,400 | -152,600
Iowa..........................| 1,522,400 | 1,479,200 | -43,200
Kansas........................| 1,391,500 | 1,333,700 | -57,800
Kentucky......................| 1,844,800 | 1,762,900 | -81,900
Louisiana.....................| 1,949,900 | 1,905,900 | -44,000
Maine.........................| 610,900 | 591,200 | -19,700
Maryland......................| 2,587,800 | 2,536,600 | -51,200
Massachusetts.................| 3,276,900 | 3,175,400 | -101,500
| | |
Michigan......................| 4,122,600 | 3,859,900 | -262,700
Minnesota.....................| 2,754,800 | 2,645,200 | -109,600
Mississippi...................| 1,138,000 | 1,104,400 | -33,600
Missouri......................| 2,792,000 | 2,714,500 | -77,500
Nevada........................| 1,249,300 | 1,174,800 | -74,500
New Hampshire.................| 644,800 | 628,500 | -16,300
New Jersey....................| 4,037,400 | 3,918,000 | -119,400
New Mexico....................| 846,300 | 818,900 | -27,400
New York......................| 8,791,500 | 8,549,000 | -242,500
North Carolina................| 4,117,700 | 3,931,900 | -185,800
| | |
Ohio..........................| 5,341,600 | 5,098,400 | -243,200
Oklahoma......................| 1,601,900 | 1,558,500 | -43,400
Oregon........................| 1,705,600 | 1,616,200 | -89,400
Pennsylvania..................| 5,798,800 | 5,613,800 | -185,000
Rhode Island..................| 477,400 | 456,600 | -20,800
South Carolina................| 1,904,200 | 1,844,200 | -60,000
South Dakota..................| 412,200 | 404,400 | -7,800
Tennessee.....................| 2,758,200 | 2,647,600 | -110,600
Texas.........................| 10,655,100 | 10,347,900 | -307,200
Utah..........................| 1,254,700 | 1,207,600 | -47,100
| | |
Vermont.......................| 305,300 | 294,600 | -10,700
Virginia......................| 3,733,400 | 3,644,400 | -89,000
Washington....................| 2,927,800 | 2,842,100 | -85,700
West Virginia.................| 762,900 | 740,700 | -22,200
Wisconsin.....................| 2,864,200 | 2,735,400 | -128,800
Wyoming.......................| 301,500 | 284,800 | -16,700
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
p = preliminary.
Source: Vermont Business Magazine. US Dept of Labor. Vermont Dept of Labor. 11.20.2009.