Unemployment rate jumps to 6.8 percent in Vermont

The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for January 2009 was 6.8 percent, up nine-tenths of a point from the revised December rate and up 2.5 points from a year ago. The unadjusted rate was 7.6 percent.
The fourth quarter declines in Vermont s job market continued into January, said Patricia Moulton Powden, Commissioner of the Vermont Department of Labor. Though we are relatively better off than the US economy as a whole we continue to see significant increases in unemployment.
Job Growth
Before seasonal adjustment, Total Non-Farm (TNF) jobs decreased by 8,500 or -2.8% from December to January. While this is a typical seasonal decrease for this time of year, we were starting from a significantly lower than typical December job level. The result is we are down 11,750 jobs or -3.8% to last year. The only seasonal increase in job counts was observed in Leisure & Hospitality, (800 or 2.4%) but this growth was not enough to keep annual job growth positive. Large over the month losses were seen in Construction, (-2,100 or -15.8%) Manufacturing, (-1,000 or -3.0%) Retail Trade, (-1,500 or -3.8%) and Professional & Business Services, (-1,150 or -5.3%). All these sectors showed annual declines as well. Private education lost 750 jobs during the vacation period, but the sector still shows annual growth. The Healthcare & Social Assistance sector lost 350 jobs in January, but it too maintained a positive annual growth rate.
When seasonally adjusted, January job levels were flat to December and down by -10,800 or -3.5% from January of 2008 (see graph). Only Retail Trade (+600 or 1.6%) and Private Educational Services, (+300 or 2.5%) showed seasonally adjusted increases in jobs over the month.
Employment Growth
Vermont s unemployment rate grew to 6.8 percent in January as a result of another sharp increase in the number of unemployed (+3,200 to 24,200) and a decrease in the number of employed Vermonters (-2,700 to 333,000). Vermont s observed January seasonally adjusted employment, unemployment levels and unemployment rate were statistically significant. For comparison purposes, the US seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for January was 7.6 percent, up four-tenths of a point from the revised December value of 7.2 percent. Unemployment rates for Vermont s 17 labor market areas ranged from 4.4 percent in Hartford to 11.5 percent in Newport. Local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. For comparison, the January unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 7.6 percent, up 1.7 points from December 2008 and up 2.6 points from a year ago.
The preliminary estimates of nonfarm jobs for January, and the revisions to the estimates for December, incorporate substantive changes made in the Current Employment Survey estimation procedures. These new procedures are designed to bring the aggregate monthly change in jobs for individual states into closer alignment with the change in national job counts reflected in the estimates produced and published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As a result of these changes, the November 2008 and forward estimates may not be totally comparable to previous months' data. The impact of these changes in methodology will be better understood when we are able to make comparisons to Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. We expect to make these comparisons in May of 2009.
Source: Vermont Department of Labor, March 11, 2009